Matt 24 probably has a better shot with his 10 out-of-mainstream picks. No one had heard of Varkonyi, Raymer, David Williams, Joe Hachem or Moneymaker before their first year runs.
I'd think his list of top up-and-comers is more likely to have the winner than the 80% of the lists (including my own) that all include the big names like Negreanu, Ivey, Hellmuth, Seidel, Juanda, Matusow etc...
Too many rogue out of control first timers are willing to go all in with a 10, 2 off suit against one of the top pros just to knock them out.