Fish, or maybe more apt a comparison we may see a co-winners along the lines of BCS champion andAP/coaches poll type thing. I believe it's possible for one candidate to get a higher raw % of votes but broken down by precinct get fewer actual delegates. It's the delegate count that really matters. Wouldn't surprise me to see more than one candidate "claiming victory".
If Kuconich voters don't compose 15% at a precinct, they will have to go to their 2nd choice. Kuconich has an agreement with Edwards that his supports will caucus for Edwards if they don't reach the 15% mark, while Edwards voters will do the same if he doesn't get 15%. This is good news for Edwards, though I doubt all of Kuconich's supporters will go along with voting for someone who co-wrote the Patriot Act and voted for the Gulf War. Dean will get those Kuconich voters turned off by Edwards.
Gephardt says he has a hard count of 35,000 votes which he believes is enough to win. However, some are expecting more than 150,000 voters tonight, in which 35,000 won't be enough. There are reports that Clark voters will go for Gephardt once Clark fails to reach his 15%.
Dean says 60-65% of his voters will be first time caucus voters. This is important because the polls aren't counting many of these people. Dean has the name and address of everyone who will vote for him. A high turnout will hurt Dean because he doesn't expect to get the undecided votes.
Undecideds will go with either Kerry or Edwards. I'm banking on Edwards. Edwards doesn't have nearly the organization the other big 3 has, but a huge turnout will negate the value of organization. He is also a more likeable candidate with the least negatives. This will be big in rural areas where the 15% cutoff will affect all the candidates. Edwards likely is first in line to get these 2nd round voters.
Its a crapshoot. If the turnout is greater than expected, Edwards wins. If not, Dean or Gephardt takes it. Or Kerry could do it.
Hell, I don't know...
Gephardt says he has a hard count of 35,000 votes which he believes is enough to win. However, some are expecting more than 150,000 voters tonight, in which 35,000 won't be enough. There are reports that Clark voters will go for Gephardt once Clark fails to reach his 15%.
Dean says 60-65% of his voters will be first time caucus voters. This is important because the polls aren't counting many of these people. Dean has the name and address of everyone who will vote for him. A high turnout will hurt Dean because he doesn't expect to get the undecided votes.
Undecideds will go with either Kerry or Edwards. I'm banking on Edwards. Edwards doesn't have nearly the organization the other big 3 has, but a huge turnout will negate the value of organization. He is also a more likeable candidate with the least negatives. This will be big in rural areas where the 15% cutoff will affect all the candidates. Edwards likely is first in line to get these 2nd round voters.
Its a crapshoot. If the turnout is greater than expected, Edwards wins. If not, Dean or Gephardt takes it. Or Kerry could do it.
Hell, I don't know...
sweating out the iowa caucas. Nice. good luck sir.
Mostly Cloudy 5° 10 % in Coralville.
Btw below is a new course since we lived there. Very nice. I drove by it last time I was there.
Golf index for the next few days.
0-Poor 10-Excellent
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0
Jan 20 Mostly Cloudy 22°/15° 10 %
Brown Deer Golf Club (est. 1992)
1900 Country Club Dr
Coralville, IA
52241
Mostly Cloudy 5° 10 % in Coralville.
Btw below is a new course since we lived there. Very nice. I drove by it last time I was there.
Golf index for the next few days.
0-Poor 10-Excellent
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0
Jan 20 Mostly Cloudy 22°/15° 10 %
Brown Deer Golf Club (est. 1992)
1900 Country Club Dr
Coralville, IA
52241
I believe you will be able to monitor the vote counts live tonight at this web site:
http://www.caucus2004.org/
http://www.caucus2004.org/
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Banned4Life:
I believe you will be able to monitor the vote counts live tonight at this web site:
http://www.caucus2004.org/<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
B4L- Thanks again buddy! Your LIVE SCOREBOARD is up and it looks very cool!
I believe you will be able to monitor the vote counts live tonight at this web site:
http://www.caucus2004.org/<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
B4L- Thanks again buddy! Your LIVE SCOREBOARD is up and it looks very cool!
