Wow, that dead cat is beginning to look like a fucking super ball

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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Oil dropping $ 28 or 20% in a very short time frame is reason for optimism, not celebration.

Considering oil and all the negative coverage on the economy during an election year, the economy has been pretty resilient.

Seriously, I still don't know somebody who can't find a job. Although business is off for just about all of my clients, nobody is starving and nobody is going out of business.

It really is about perspective and balance.

yeah big oil companies and the massive profits they reap off of high prices aren't a big portion of our economy as well as places like canada, brazil, austrailia, russia, venezuela, peru, mexico......that see high employment and more profits due to high commodity prices not just oil.....and so they at the same time consume more american made goods

anyway i've said it a thousand times starting to get old

only one in here that seems to think lower oil is a bearish longer term signal

i'll just give up and let the markets and economy do the talking

this is a world economy willie its not just us anymore
 

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Well at least my shares are fine while my gold goes doon the toilet.

Hey Woofy!
You fancy buying some gold at $1000 an ounce?

Da Woof narrowly missed in his suicide attempt ....jumping out his basement window. :missingte
 

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you always pick the lagging indicators

when these things peak out on the gloomy side of things

is around the time you will see the equity markets bottom :grandmais

yeah, because money managers don't know their shit

BTW: I think you tend to have an usual interpretation of any and all events, and they are always in the same direction, without exception.

Neither you nor I nor anyone can define all the variables in play on any given day, and even 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. That should be obvious by now.
 

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you always pick the lagging indicators

when these things peak out on the gloomy side of things

is around the time you will see the equity markets bottom :grandmais

Why is this "lagging indicator" making the current events headlines?
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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yeah, because money managers don't know their shit

BTW: I think you tend to have an usual interpretation of any and all events, and they are always in the same direction, without exception.

Neither you nor I nor anyone can define all the variables in play on any given day, and even 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. That should be obvious by now.

just look at history

great depression....stock market bottomed in 1932....UE peaked at 25% around the same exact time.....

companies respond to the world economy and make cuts in employees after the economy slows....and it takes time for them to do their cuts....and people to fill out their UE applications....some live on savings for a while or whatever as well.....

the stock market is predicting the future of the economy its looking at the real economy with forward thinking

UE is looking behind at what has already happened

UE is a very lagging indicator...i have no clue how high its gonna go but its gonna head higher than 5.7% with almost certainty

as for GDP near term especially in Q2 so much inflation built into those figures

now that oil and shit falling those GDP numbers will turn negative might take till 2009....guessing by Q4 they turn negative

either way i don't even pay attention to them

other than if they really gloomy might be a sign we near hitting rock bottom on equity market
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Why is this "lagging indicator" making the current events headlines?

cause everybody is a well trained bag holder when it comes to equities....of course they gonna using lagging indicators as their tool to telling you how the economy is doing......so you stick in there while "things aren't that bad" as equity prices continue to crumble....and than when those indicators peak you freak out and dump your shares after riding the pig all the way down
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Da Woof narrowly missed in his suicide attempt ....jumping out his basement window. :missingte

man if that doesn't drag him out i dunno what will

where u at woof

i wanna rumble concerning the inflation/deflation debate
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also here's a formal definition of dead cat bounce

-----------------------------------------

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".

The phrase has been used on the trading floors for many years. However the earliest recorded use of the phrase dates from 1985 when the Singaporean and Malaysian stock markets bounced back after a hard fall during the recession of that year. Journalist Christopher Sherwell of the Financial Times reported a stock broker as saying the market rise was a "dead cat bounce".

The reasons for such a bounce can be technical, as investors may have standing orders to buy shorted stocks if they fall below a certain level or to cover certain option positions. Once those limits are reached, the buy orders are activated and the sudden rise in demand causes the price of the stock to rise as well. The bounce may also be the result of speculation. Since bounces often occur, traders buy into what they hope is the bottom of the market, expecting a bounce and thus making a quick profit. Thus, the very act of anticipating a bounce can create and magnify it.

A market rise after a sharp fall can only really be seen to be a "dead cat bounce" with the benefit of hindsight. If the stock starts to fall again in the following days and weeks, then it is a true dead cat bounce. If the market starts to climb again, it was not a bounce but a real bottom.
 

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I am hopeful. I do not see a reason to celebrate just yet.....Scott L [buying and holding for 25 years now]
 

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also here's a formal definition of dead cat bounce

-----------------------------------------

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".

The phrase has been used on the trading floors for many years. However the earliest recorded use of the phrase dates from 1985 when the Singaporean and Malaysian stock markets bounced back after a hard fall during the recession of that year. Journalist Christopher Sherwell of the Financial Times reported a stock broker as saying the market rise was a "dead cat bounce".

The reasons for such a bounce can be technical, as investors may have standing orders to buy shorted stocks if they fall below a certain level or to cover certain option positions. Once those limits are reached, the buy orders are activated and the sudden rise in demand causes the price of the stock to rise as well. The bounce may also be the result of speculation. Since bounces often occur, traders buy into what they hope is the bottom of the market, expecting a bounce and thus making a quick profit. Thus, the very act of anticipating a bounce can create and magnify it.

A market rise after a sharp fall can only really be seen to be a "dead cat bounce" with the benefit of hindsight. If the stock starts to fall again in the following days and weeks, then it is a true dead cat bounce. If the market starts to climb again, it was not a bounce but a real bottom.

gee thanks, now how long does a dead cat bounce? because this guy seems to have some serious hang time
 

Oh boy!
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Oil dropping $ 28 or 20% in a very short time frame is reason for optimism, not celebration.

Considering oil and all the negative coverage on the economy during an election year, the economy has been pretty resilient.

Seriously, I still don't know somebody who can't find a job. Although business is off for just about all of my clients, nobody is starving and nobody is going out of business.

It really is about perspective and balance.

This is what I look at also Willie. Sure the mortgage market is down and oil prices have been up which leads to inflation. But you won't hear the gloomers mention the perspective that you did here. It's almost like they are completely forgetting about worse economic times in our recent future.

I will have to hand it to tizzer, he did call a bear market and it did drop when he said it would. He also goes out on a limb and predicts the market going to 10,000. I'll give him his accolades for that.

:howdy:
 

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cause everybody is a well trained bag holder when it comes to equities....of course they gonna using lagging indicators as their tool to telling you how the economy is doing......so you stick in there while "things aren't that bad" as equity prices continue to crumble....and than when those indicators peak you freak out and dump your shares after riding the pig all the way down

ruh roh, so this lagging indicator, 96% of mortgages being paid on time, is being misrepresented as a doom and gloom economic indicator 10,000x per day so people will think things aren't soooo bad and they'll stick in there. :think2:

Well, there are two big time fallacies in that argument.

1) the negative news being spewed each and every day at each and every opportunity can hardly be said to be inspiring people to hang in there. If you make a 180 degree turn, you'll be heading in the right direction.

2) you and I don't move the markets, money managers do. I think your description of what moves the markets is rather simpleton like. But I give you more credit than that.

You're blinded by bearism, you need to eat a dead cat ASAP.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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deliquencies went past 6% (94% paying mortgage) in q1 of 2008 i think last i looked

i'll try to find a source

and yes foreclosure rates will peak around the same too....

cause as people lose their jobs chances are at the same time its gonna be hard to pay the mortgage

makes some sense don't ya think
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also delinquencies of 5% or greater is a bigger number than it seems....all time high since they kept records of it...homes are the last thing people tend to give up.....

it was 5.82% in q4 of 2007....this is an older article....think it shot past 6% in q1 of 2008

and the fallouts spread decreasing property values to those surrounding the foreclosed homes....its a spiral effect, effecting everybody.....the economy as a whole.....

-------------------------------------------

Mortgage delinquencies hit 23-year high
Foreclosures set a record, showing housing pain, threat to economy

updated 12:20 p.m. CT, Thurs., March. 6, 2008

WASHINGTON - Home foreclosures soared to an all-time high in the final quarter of last year and are likely to keep on rising, underscoring the suffering of distressed homeowners and the growing danger the housing meltdown poses for the economy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association, in a quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market released Thursday, said the proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high of 0.83 percent in the October-to-December quarter. That surpassed the previous high of 0.78 percent set in the prior quarter.

"Clearly it's the worst it's been," chief association economist Doug Duncan said in an interview with The Associated Press.

More homeowners — at the same time — fell behind on their monthly payments.

The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to 5.82 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from the 5.59 percent in the third quarter and was the highest since 1985. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.

Homeowners with tarnished credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans were the hardest hit. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers also swelled to all-time highs in the fourth quarter.

The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that entered the foreclosure process soared to a record of 5.29 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from 4.72 percent in the prior quarter, which had marked the previous high. Late payments skyrocketed to a record high of 20.02 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 18.81 percent — the previous high — in the third quarter.

The association's survey covers almost 46 million home loans nationwide.

"Mortgage credit quality is deteriorating fast," said Mike Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research.

The worsening foreclosure and late payment figures come as fears grow that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession or in one already.

The wave of foreclosures threatens to deepen the already severely depressed housing market. The homes people are forced out of add to the big glut of unsold homes already on the market. That forces even more cutbacks by homebuilders, taking a big bite out of national economic activity. Harder-to-get credit, meanwhile, has thwarted would-be home buyers, aggravating problems in the housing market.

Homeowners with spotty credit histories or low incomes who took out higher-risk subprime adjustable-rate mortgages have suffered the most distress as the housing market went from boom to bust. Initially low interest rates that reset to much higher rates have clobbered these borrowers. With home values dragged down by the slump, many borrowers were left with mortgages that eclipsed the value of their homes.

"Declining home prices are clearly the driving factor behind foreclosures, but the reasons and magnitude of the declines differ from state to state," Duncan said.

In a separate report, Americans' percentage of equity in their homes has fallen below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945, the Federal Reserve said.

Homeowners' percentage of equity slipped to a downwardly revised 49.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007, and declined further to 47.9 percent in the fourth quarter — the third straight quarter it was under 50 percent. That marks the first time homeowners' debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945.

Even with relief efforts under way by industry and the government, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, earlier this week, warned that foreclosures and late payments on home mortgages are likely to rise "for a while longer."

The MBA's Duncan agreed. "We expect some increases in the next couple of quarters," he said. The economic slowdown, harder-to-get credit and lofty energy prices are adding to the strains, he said.

Against this backdrop, Bernanke called for additional relief and urged lenders to help distressed owners by lowering the amount of their loans. "This situation calls for a vigorous response," Bernanke said in a speech Tuesday.

Click for related content
Analysis: Calls widening for foreclosure solutions
Fed chief Bernanke: Mortgage mess to continue

Bernanke's recommendation for lenders to reduce the amount owed on troubled home loans goes beyond the position staked out by the Bush administration. The Fed chief, however, didn't go as far as to endorse some proposals embraced by Democrats on Capitol Hill.

Among the initiatives promoted by the administration is allowing some homeowners with certain subprime home loans to freeze their interest rate for five years.

California and Florida continued to represent a disproportionate share of the country's new foreclosures. The two states accounted for 30 percent of mortgages starting the foreclosure process, the association said. "In states like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, overbuilding of new homes created a surplus that will take some time to work through," Duncan said. That glut has pushed down house prices, he said.

The fallout afflicts neighborhoods, too.

"Foreclosures not only create personal and financial distress for individual homeowners but also can significantly hurt neighborhoods where foreclosures cluster," Bernanke said.
 

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Is this the news you think is making people "hang in there"?
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i dunno why people hang in there when its blatantly obvious you will get to buy lower in a few years.....don't ask me...

i'm not a bagholder

i've been screaming get out for a while

hopefully some listened

think 2009 will be the time to start dipping your toes in the water to buy some tried and true dividend paying equities with a long term perspective

i'm not a permabear....get over it....

who knows when the ultimate bottom will be reached....but at least i'm buying alot lower than i woulda been in late 2007 and 2008
 

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cat went splat

then again, maybe not

240_lg_clr.gif
 

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