wow. Gallup Obama 52 McCain 41

[cincy_]

Polls don't go from 49-45 McCain to 52-41 Obama because people change their minds like that. People don't change their minds that easily and they rarely go back and forth. Their enthusiasm changes.

Right now, the Obama supporters are stoked. They tell pollsters they will vote for sure ... especially the college kids. They might be classified as a "likely voter".

Right now, fiscal conservatives are pissed that McCain supported the bailout bill or they might not like the negative campaign. They tell pollsters that they might not vote at all. Pollsters can err by categorizing them as an "unlikely voter".

A week later, Obama's enthusiasm might dwindle and McCain's supporters might have something to cheer for. So pollsters will see a change in enthusiasm affect their LV count and it could be that NOBODY has changed their mind. Yet, we misakenly think that people actually are changing their minds. This doesn't happen with an RV poll.

THAT, my friends, IS THE PROBLEM WITH AN LV POLL A MONTH BEFORE THE ELECTION.

 

[cincy_]

After the election, when we try to compare polls and we look at these polls as "predictors", we will look at the LV poll taken Nov 1st-Nov 3rd ... not the one taken in October and we'll think that the LV polls were more "accurate" or they were "better" ... well, the LV polls taken November 1st-3rd will be better so we end up thinking that RV polls suck ... when it's the volatile LV polls that sucked for 6 months because of the volatility ... and people don't change their minds after conventions ... but the ENTHUSIASM changes ... and the "bounce" is NOT a group of people going from likely Obama to likely McCain to likely Obama again ... it's a reflection of enthusiasm ... a person going from unlikely to vote, to likely to vote to unlikely to vote.

 

[Willie99]

You base it on "enthusiasm" or lack there of, ok, but I don't. The starting point is always their voting habits, and that don't change, my friends.

 

[GoForBroke]

Game over McCain :missingte

 

[cincy_]

You base it on "enthusiasm" or lack there of, ok, but I don't. The starting point is always their voting habits, and that don't change, my friends.

ok ...I am not going to debate this, Willie ... I wrote what I had to and tried to explain fluctuations as best as I could ...

If you want to explain to me how polls can go from Obama +4 to McCain +6 to Obama +11 because of "voting habits" (no idea what that means) or because people are changing their minds back and forth, give it a shot.

I attribute these bounces to enthusiasm and I don't believe people change their minds from week to week ... especially not back and forth and back again ... this is an argument that has gone on in polling centers for years now and nobody has convinced me otherwise.

LV pollsters know that their polls are too volatile right now and they were like that all summer ... but they don't want to stick to RV because they will "look better" when naive journalists "grade" their polls by looking at their last poll (taken November 1-3) as a predictor ... but the journos will not realize that of the 200 polls that the LV poll released, only the last 5-6 were accurate and 195 of them (the ones that came in the spring, summer and early fall) were actually fairly poor indicators.

 

[Paddywack]

Check out the "Bradley effect".

 

[Risk44]

It all goes back to Post #2 in this thread.

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RX Wizard



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wow. Gallup Obama 52 McCain 41
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.
Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.
Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor"). -- Jeff Jones

(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->He is pulling away.... now lets hear from all the Pubs how it will be close... and see what polls they can produce that give them a glimmer.. LOL
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[cincy_]

Check out the "Bradley effect".

Ok ... another overblown MSM creation is the Bradley effect because it actually goes BOTH ways.

In the early 90's, a polling place did the following:

They employed people with black accents to ask, "Do you support affirmative action?" ... the polls showed that people overwhelmingly supported it.

They employed people with southern accents to ask, "Do you support affirmative action?" ... the polls showed that people overwhelmingly rejected it.

The inference was that the pollster is calling YOU. He knows your number, he could find your name, and he could find your address. You want to make him happy ... so you say what you think he wants to hear.

If you had a WOMEN'S ONLY call center ... and ask if people want to overturn Roe v. Wade, I bet you that the results would be skewed towards "no".

 

[JDeuce]

Relax, McCainians. This one is a LOT closer than some of these recent polls are indicating.

Have you noticed you haven't seen any Zogby polls posted on here lately? Wanna know why?

To paraphrase from this thread's title:

"wow. Zogby: Obama 47, McCain 45"

http://www.zogby.com/

Yes, those #s are current. Yes, that's essentially a tie (remember, Kerry was up by 2 pts in 2004 the night before the election) Yes, we're going to start hearing "Zogby is crap"...except if it shows a bigger shift for Obama. And yes...we're going to start hearing about grandiose conspiracy theories and stolen elections WHEN (not if) McCain wins the presidency.

Anyone on here remember when Wile E. Coyote would zip by the Road Runner off the edge of a cliff, then look at the camera sadly, knowing full well he fucked up again and is about to plunge a few hundred feet to the ground? That's exactly the look you can expect on the faces of the Left in about a month as America continues to reject their diseased socialist agenda. :::meep meep:::

I swear to God...the left is nothing, if not amusing. Well, yeah. They are something else: vile. Morally bankrupt. The absolute scum of the earth.

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Morally bankrupt

Since when do you look to your government or political parties to give you your moral code or standing? You cant make this shit up.

 

[gtc08]

Relax, McCainians. This one is a LOT closer than some of these recent polls are indicating.

Have you noticed you haven't seen any Zogby polls posted on here lately? Wanna know why?

To paraphrase from this thread's title:

"wow. Zogby: Obama 47, McCain 45"

http://www.zogby.com/

Yes, those #s are current. Yes, that's essentially a tie (remember, Kerry was up by 2 pts in 2004 the night before the election) Yes, we're going to start hearing "Zogby is crap"...except if it shows a bigger shift for Obama. And yes...we're going to start hearing about grandiose conspiracy theories and stolen elections WHEN (not if) McCain wins the presidency.

Anyone on here remember when Wile E. Coyote would zip by the Road Runner off the edge of a cliff, then look at the camera sadly, knowing full well he fucked up again and is about to plunge a few hundred feet to the ground? That's exactly the look you can expect on the faces of the Left in about a month as America continues to reject their diseased socialist agenda. :::meep meep:::

I swear to God...the left is nothing, if not amusing. Well, yeah. They are something else: vile. Morally bankrupt. The absolute scum of the earth.

zogby is a horrible poll and has been proven that way at 538 where they review how accurate those companies are.

gallup is the standard.