Most guys in this forum get it(unlike the offshore one where futbol aka soccer gets bashed by everyone that has watched a handful if any games in their life and Pele is their sole reference in the sport)...so I respect the core group of guys in heres thoughts even if our club and/or national teams differ or might be rivals...not much to say that I haven't said about draw already...have not even checked current odds...but in coming days/weeks/months in the lead up feel free to throw comments around whether to root, make money or just plain chat...it's well appreciated...cheers
I don't want to overact to their UEFA qualifiers but if you look at Belgium at +1400 it could be a nice bet. The climate and atmosphere might be something European nations aren't ready for. It makes sense that Brazil and Argentina are the favs. I'd like to back Columbia at +2000 but that's based on Falcao. Top Goalscorer Messi possible even though he is the fav. Not exactly a tough group with Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria. Winning continent SA -110. I'll take Argentina, Brazil and Columbia to beat the best in Europe. Too early - a couple of injuries could throw all predictions out the window. Tough group for my friendly Americans. I think Canada is playing in the D Pool of the WC next year.
my way too early predictions on who is advancing
Group A - Brazil, Cameroon - obviously Brazil will cruise here and it's really a coin flip between out-of-form Mexico, out-of-form Croatia, and a very old Cameroon team still rocking Eto'o and Webo in attack
Group B - Spain, Chile - well i have Chile bet to win the WC so really didn't want them in with both Spain and the Dutch.
Group C - Ivory Coast, Japan - toughest group to predict. Lots of love for Colombia and Falcao but I don't think they're deep enough to make a serious run. Japan's been impressive, Greece tough defensively, but I'll take IC to win the group. Kagawa plays like a top 20 attacking MF when he's with his country and they have too much speed for the group
Group D - Italy, England - nobody is more negative against England and Uruguay than I am so it's a near miracle they get drawn into same group. Italy will destroy this group so it comes down to 2 very flawed teams to finish 2nd. CR will be happy with 1 point
Group E - France, Swiss - can't see both European clubs getting through and France has some of the most in-form players in the world like Pogba and Ribery so they are clear favorites. what a shit group...seriously I'd bet on USA against any of these four teams h2h
Group F - Argentina, Iran - gotta go for one upset and I'm not a fan of either Nigeria or Bosnia so I'll go Iran who've lost just 1 match in a year and beat Korea both home and away. Bosnia great attack but horrendous defense (see USA winning away after 2-0 down)
Group G - Germany, USA - homer pick...gotta finally beat an African team to start things off then it's USA/Portugal in Manaus and the team in better conditioning will win. CR vs our defense is not pretty but he'll be in the jungle after a very long season
Group H - Belgium, Russia - to think the USA had a 50/50 shot of being in this group instead of in "G" is rough because this group is awful. Algeria are here based on away goals h2h with, ahemm, Burkina Faso while Russia qualified through a group with Port, Israel, Azer, No Ireland, and Luxembourg. Still Russia have some talent so it will come down to them vs South Korea
Group A - Brazil, Cameroon - obviously Brazil will cruise here and it's really a coin flip between out-of-form Mexico, out-of-form Croatia, and a very old Cameroon team still rocking Eto'o and Webo in attack
Group B - Spain, Chile - well i have Chile bet to win the WC so really didn't want them in with both Spain and the Dutch.
Group C - Ivory Coast, Japan - toughest group to predict. Lots of love for Colombia and Falcao but I don't think they're deep enough to make a serious run. Japan's been impressive, Greece tough defensively, but I'll take IC to win the group. Kagawa plays like a top 20 attacking MF when he's with his country and they have too much speed for the group
Group D - Italy, England - nobody is more negative against England and Uruguay than I am so it's a near miracle they get drawn into same group. Italy will destroy this group so it comes down to 2 very flawed teams to finish 2nd. CR will be happy with 1 point
Group E - France, Swiss - can't see both European clubs getting through and France has some of the most in-form players in the world like Pogba and Ribery so they are clear favorites. what a shit group...seriously I'd bet on USA against any of these four teams h2h
Group F - Argentina, Iran - gotta go for one upset and I'm not a fan of either Nigeria or Bosnia so I'll go Iran who've lost just 1 match in a year and beat Korea both home and away. Bosnia great attack but horrendous defense (see USA winning away after 2-0 down)
Group G - Germany, USA - homer pick...gotta finally beat an African team to start things off then it's USA/Portugal in Manaus and the team in better conditioning will win. CR vs our defense is not pretty but he'll be in the jungle after a very long season
Group H - Belgium, Russia - to think the USA had a 50/50 shot of being in this group instead of in "G" is rough because this group is awful. Algeria are here based on away goals h2h with, ahemm, Burkina Faso while Russia qualified through a group with Port, Israel, Azer, No Ireland, and Luxembourg. Still Russia have some talent so it will come down to them vs South Korea
i have Chile 66/1 from last spring but wouldn't take it now after their draw. agree with belgium as far as having a super simple group then likely matched up vs either ghana/portugal/usa in KO stage. something tells me they're not quite ready for this stage, however....and I wouldn't take them at 14-1 as that puts them 5th favorite.
big value for me is Italy at 30/1 ... to me they'll crush their group and will be favs against group C 2nd finisher. From there they would face 2nd A team or 1st B team so will be favored against anyone but Spain, and they were far better than Spain in the summer tourney. so if looking for something 10/1 or better the only one I'd back now is Italy
Betting wise, looking at group winners and trying to find a lil value
groupA:I guess if you are wagering tens of thousands Brazil at 2/9 is value? They win this group at 3-0-0
groupB:it's either Spain or Dutch, neither at value...
groupC:Cote d'ivoire at 4-1 is appealing to me, if I was going to Dutch bet it I would also put same amount on Japan at 5-1...not a fan of Columbia..
groupD:Italy at 7/4 is brilliant...I have no faith in the defending and keeping of England nor Uruguay..only thing to worry about would be Balloteli's head and where it is...
groupE:god, I hate France but at 5/6 in this group, they would seem like the bees knees of this bunch
groupF:Argentina at 2/9....moving on
groupG:Germany at 8/15...moving on again
groupH:I think this is the upset group here...call me crazy but I think S.Korea has a shot at 8-1...why not? What's Belgium ever done and I think Russia is ok, not great(and easily corrupt able)
groupA:I guess if you are wagering tens of thousands Brazil at 2/9 is value? They win this group at 3-0-0
groupB:it's either Spain or Dutch, neither at value...
groupC:Cote d'ivoire at 4-1 is appealing to me, if I was going to Dutch bet it I would also put same amount on Japan at 5-1...not a fan of Columbia..
groupD:Italy at 7/4 is brilliant...I have no faith in the defending and keeping of England nor Uruguay..only thing to worry about would be Balloteli's head and where it is...
groupE:god, I hate France but at 5/6 in this group, they would seem like the bees knees of this bunch
groupF:Argentina at 2/9....moving on
groupG:Germany at 8/15...moving on again
groupH:I think this is the upset group here...call me crazy but I think S.Korea has a shot at 8-1...why not? What's Belgium ever done and I think Russia is ok, not great(and easily corrupt able)
Backed them with the HKJC at 25.0
The price is still there: http://bet.hkjc.com/football/default.aspx?lang=en
For the US to advance out of group G, they have to win the first game against Ghana. That is an absolute must. Current odds for them are pk +106. Then, they would need Germany to get wins over Portugal and Ghana. That would be the best case scenario before the 2nd group match vs. Portugal.
Odds for the US to advance opened at 5D at +200. Under the futures odds, they are now +225. But if you look in the international page, you can find them at +315. I'm going to wait for bets to start coming in on this one. Hoping to see +400 before I take a shot.
rolltide, when you get time if possible, could you do a write-up on the US roster by position. I know the key players who will most likely make the team, but I'm interested in your opinion on the guys who are on the bubble. No hurry on this.
Odds for the US to advance opened at 5D at +200. Under the futures odds, they are now +225. But if you look in the international page, you can find them at +315. I'm going to wait for bets to start coming in on this one. Hoping to see +400 before I take a shot.
rolltide, when you get time if possible, could you do a write-up on the US roster by position. I know the key players who will most likely make the team, but I'm interested in your opinion on the guys who are on the bubble. No hurry on this.
since i was riled up after today's performance i did my list
Howard, Guzan, Rimando
in the mix: Cropper, Johnson
- i don't see much movement here maybe only Rimando swapped out for Sean Johnson if their forms dictate a change. I'd personally go with Johnson just for getting him the experience of these trips and the pressure of INTL games since Rimando is too old to every be a starter for USMNT
DEF:
sure things: Gonzalez, Besler, Johnson, Beasley, Chernundolo (if healthy)
next most likely: Goodson, Evans, Cameron
in the mix: Castillo, Parkhurst, Spector, Orozco, Edu, Yedlin, Brooks, Ream
- Chernundolo/Besler/Gonzalez/Johnson is the ideal back IV but with Chernundolo struggling to get fit that would mean either Cameron, Evans, or Parkhurst at right back. My preference is Parkhurst but the German clearly isn't a fan of his. I wanted him to give Lichaj a shot too but that's not happening. I think Edu can get into the conversation for a nice 2nd string center back slot if he starts great at defensive mid for Philly. German loves versatility and Edu can play central defense equally as well as defensive mid. I put Evans as likely but I really think it will come down to Evans or Parkhurst depending on if they want versatility along the back four (Parkhurst) or for both right back and midfield (Evans)
MF:
sure things: Donovan, Bradley, Jones, Zusi, Dempsey, Williams
next most likely: Mix, Beckerman, Shea, Torres, Green (if he chooses USA)
in the mix: Kljestan, Corona, Bedoya, Edu (see above), Davis, Gatt, Feilhaber
- The German has a love affair with Beckerman so I think he's pretty much a lock unless Edu has an incredible 8 weeks and plays his way back onto this team, where he belongs. I really like Mix's versatility and I think Green will be here if he wants to be. There's a lot of options after the "sure things" depending on what the tactics are going to be and if they feel they need more cover down the left as Zusi and Donovan can both be great on the right.
FB:
sure things: Jozy, Johannson
next most likely: Boyd, EJ
in the mix: Wondo, Agudelo, Magee, Gomez
- I could see EJ playing his way off this team and Gomez playing his way on. Doubt Magee is really in the mix but if he starts the season like 2013 he could jump in there. Aguelo and Wondo are big doubts
so if everyone is fit I have 16 sure things. Today I'd add Goodson, Cameron, Mix, Green, Edu, Boyd, and Torres and would prefer Johnson over Rimando. But lots of things can change with injuries and form but that's the 2-deep to choose from
Howard, Guzan, Rimando
in the mix: Cropper, Johnson
- i don't see much movement here maybe only Rimando swapped out for Sean Johnson if their forms dictate a change. I'd personally go with Johnson just for getting him the experience of these trips and the pressure of INTL games since Rimando is too old to every be a starter for USMNT
DEF:
sure things: Gonzalez, Besler, Johnson, Beasley, Chernundolo (if healthy)
next most likely: Goodson, Evans, Cameron
in the mix: Castillo, Parkhurst, Spector, Orozco, Edu, Yedlin, Brooks, Ream
- Chernundolo/Besler/Gonzalez/Johnson is the ideal back IV but with Chernundolo struggling to get fit that would mean either Cameron, Evans, or Parkhurst at right back. My preference is Parkhurst but the German clearly isn't a fan of his. I wanted him to give Lichaj a shot too but that's not happening. I think Edu can get into the conversation for a nice 2nd string center back slot if he starts great at defensive mid for Philly. German loves versatility and Edu can play central defense equally as well as defensive mid. I put Evans as likely but I really think it will come down to Evans or Parkhurst depending on if they want versatility along the back four (Parkhurst) or for both right back and midfield (Evans)
MF:
sure things: Donovan, Bradley, Jones, Zusi, Dempsey, Williams
next most likely: Mix, Beckerman, Shea, Torres, Green (if he chooses USA)
in the mix: Kljestan, Corona, Bedoya, Edu (see above), Davis, Gatt, Feilhaber
- The German has a love affair with Beckerman so I think he's pretty much a lock unless Edu has an incredible 8 weeks and plays his way back onto this team, where he belongs. I really like Mix's versatility and I think Green will be here if he wants to be. There's a lot of options after the "sure things" depending on what the tactics are going to be and if they feel they need more cover down the left as Zusi and Donovan can both be great on the right.
FB:
sure things: Jozy, Johannson
next most likely: Boyd, EJ
in the mix: Wondo, Agudelo, Magee, Gomez
- I could see EJ playing his way off this team and Gomez playing his way on. Doubt Magee is really in the mix but if he starts the season like 2013 he could jump in there. Aguelo and Wondo are big doubts
so if everyone is fit I have 16 sure things. Today I'd add Goodson, Cameron, Mix, Green, Edu, Boyd, and Torres and would prefer Johnson over Rimando. But lots of things can change with injuries and form but that's the 2-deep to choose from
So gents, we've had a round of international friendlies that shed some very tiny rays of light on who is hot and who is not in the eve of the World Cup. Of course, nothing is conclusive at this stage, but it was funny to see Germans booed of the park even though they won against Chile. I watched bits and pieces of Spain vs. Italy, and the reigning champs looked all right. Some worrying signs for Argentina though who weren't able to score with Messi, Higuain and Aguerro on the pitch against a poor Romanian side.
Still ain't got a clue who will win it, but if had to place a wager right now, i'd be backing Spain.
Still ain't got a clue who will win it, but if had to place a wager right now, i'd be backing Spain.
Pretty good call. Kind of a shock to see his exclusion considering his contribution.
I'm guessing the final cut will be (according to JK roster):
Def: top 4 Johnson, Besler, Cameron, Beasley
then: Chandler, Gonzalez, Goodson, Yedlin
Mid: top 4: Zusi, Bradley, Jones, Bedoya
then: Edu, Green, Beckerman
FW: top 2: Dempsey, Altidore
then: Donovan, Boyd, Johannsson
My starters would be:
Chandler-Cameron-Besler-Beasley (wide players will be under immense pressure in this group)
Zusi-Bradley-Beckerman-Johnson (wide players both backtrack well. Beckerman-Bradley is more efficient than Jones, Beckerman allows Bradley to go forward, Jones isn't as box-to-box as he thinks)
Dempsey
Altidore (poor form, but he's still the best on this team.....unless Boyd is beginning to blossom)
Top Subs: Donovan, Bedoya, Jones
In Tahoe as I type...gritted my teeth/checked my pulse/looked at the clouds and cursed at everything holy and walked into the tiny Hyatt book and placed $500 on...wait for it... Now gulp...France at 22-1...it pains me to say my Dutch are done and dusted come the 2nd round(most likely to Brasil...our defense is a sieve...bet all three opening overs)....... But I feel the French are to be reckoned with ...as much as I can't stand it...a meeting w/Z Germanz looms...they get by that it could be hedge time...back to La Cantina...cheers
