World Cup bets

[rolltide]

Nigeria bet is to advance the furthest ... of course just now learned the injury bug caught them too with Jon Obi Mikel set to miss the WC with a knee injury. It was somewhat of a longterm injury and he hadn't played in their friendlies nor was he set to play in tomorrow's friendly, so not an entirely surprising omission. What is interesting about the pricing of this bet is they are now the only team that are clear favorites to advance out of their group. Cameroon are basically level with Denmark to advance while all others are now either 3rd or 4th choice. Of course that now makes about 4 bets that are dead if Argentina beat them 4-1 in game 1 ... not to mention I'll be adding Nigeria +1.25 once the public stops hammering Argentina.

btw, huge moves last night in IC's group as Portugal dropped to nearly -200 now for qualifying to group stage while IC went from +100 to -150 to be eliminated after 3 matches.

here's one example of what Drogba's injury meant to the Top African Team bet (from betus)

earlier this week:
Ivory Coast -120
Ghana +300
Cameroon +450
Nigeria +500
South Africa +900
Algeria +2000

current odds:
IC +200
Ghana +300
Cameroon +350
Nigeria +400
South Africa +700
Algeria +1800

 

[rolltide]

today's new injury...

Arjen Robben the Dutch superstar was injured against Hungary. probably know later today or tomorrow if he will play in WC

 

[X-Files]

today's new injury...

Arjen Robben the Dutch superstar was injured against Hungary. probably know later today or tomorrow if he will play in WC

It's insane for the top players to be in these exhibition games
so close to the WC.

 

[X-Files]

btw, huge moves last night in IC's group as Portugal dropped to nearly -200 now for qualifying to group stage while IC went from +100 to -150 to be eliminated after 3 matches.

At all my books, even Oly, i'm getting -124 or better (-124 to -115} on IC.
And -154 to -170 on Portugal.

 

[mclosin]

all of these injuries are killin the event completely. its becomin a real battle of attrition.

 

[rolltide]

Ribery to score more goals than Robben 2u +125
- Ribery and Robben are the most in-form players at their respective clubs but the injury Robben sustained yesterday makes this a must bet. While I'm not too high on France I can certainly say that when they score the goals will come via Ribery, Henry, Malouda, and Anelka with Ribery being their key. Oranje have tons of talent in MF and attack and while Robben is in great form the goals could easily spread out amongst the EPL trio (Van Persie, Kuyt, Babel), Huntelaaar, Van der Vaart, and Sneijder. Robben did not fly to South Africa today so you've got to think the Denmark game is out for him and perhaps even the Japan match which would be 2 weeks from sustaining hamstring injury. Ribery played exceptionally well all season and has been the only decent forward against Costa Rica, Tunisia, and China to it seems all French hopes rest on his shoulders. Since it is likely he will play more matches than Robben this bet should be taken while the odds are still tasty

 

[rolltide]

recap:
WC futures bets in order of stake (my largest stake is 10u)
Group B total goals under 14.5 4u -108
Argentina under 6.5 points in group stage 4u +102
Ivory Coast eliminated in group stage 2.5u +100
Ribery to score more goals than Robben 2u +125
Argentina eliminated in group stage 2u +500
Nigeria top African finisher 1u +450
South Africa to advance from Group A 1u +200
South Africa to win group A .25u +700

 

[rolltide]

my first match bet:

Chile vs Honduras
- while everyone is talking about the injuries to Robben, Essien, Drogba, and Rio not much has been said for Honduras who are losing players left and right. Attacker Carlos Costly broke his foot a few weeks back and is lost for the season after scoring 6 goals in qualifying alongside of Suazo. Costly was replaced by a guy that has no business being on the team although you knew all along Honduras' world cup hopes rested on David Suazo and Wilson Palacios anyway. Well both those guys are doubtful for Chile, Palacios actually stretchered off with adductor problem vs Romania while Suazo appeared to have aggravated the muscle strain that has bothered him for 2 months. Honduras of course are only here because Jonathan Bornstein scored in stoppage time to tie Costa Rica which allowed Honduras to be in WC2010 without having to go through playoff vs Uruguay and you must rate them amongst the poorest teams in the tournament along with Algeria, New Zealand, and North Korea. Their preparation has been a disaster scoring in just 1 of their 5 friendlies in past 3 months, all against non-WC teams. They drew Belarus and Azerbaijan on neutral ground, were thrashed by Romania yesterday, lost to poor Venezuela at home, and beaten easily in Turkey for a 0-2-3 2/8 preparation. Having watched them many times I really see no chance for them in their tough group and Chile should win by multiple goals even without Humberto Suazo and Cabanas, two strikers who were so important in qualifying. The Honduran defense is shockingly poor with 5 local players, 1 who plays in China, and only 2 who play at a high level with Anderlecht and Wigan. Similarly in MF you have a group of lower level players outside of Wilson Palacios. Chile are really playing well right now with nice preparation matches. They scored just 1 less goal than Brazil in CONMEBOL qualifying and were more than competent on the road, leading CONMEBOL with 16 road points out of their 33. In the final stage Honduras were only able to defeat El Salvador away and while not really thrashed they still managed to lose at Mexico twice, USA, Costa Rica, and even Jamaica. They have no confidence, their strength of attack is a mess right now, and without Palacios and/or Suazo, they have no chance against a top club like Chile. When you throw out USA and Mexico you will see Concacaf 3rd and 4th clubs are really a disaster at this level:

2006:
Costa Rica 0-0-3 lost to Ecuador by 2, Poland by 1, Germany by 2
T&T 0-1-2 lost to England by 2, Paraguay by 2, scoreless draw Sweden

2002: only got 3 teams in
Costa Rica 1-1-1 beat poor China (was 0-0-3 0/9), lost to Brazil by 3, drew Turkey with late goal

1998:
Jamaica 1-0-2 beat poor Japan (was 0-0-3), lost to Croatia by 2, lost to Arg by 5

1990 and 1994 concacaf just 2 teams

So you see the final concacaf qualifiers can only beat the worst of the Asian teams and all other times basically get thrashed. Against South American teams they have all failed to stay within even 2 goals of them which I suspect will not change in Chile/Honduras match

Chile -1 7u +108

 

[rolltide]

when you are capping these matches don't forget to look at what games are in altitude! Obviously Mexico and South Africa have an advantage, USA regularly trains in Colorado, and Nigeria plays in fairly similar height, Honduras in about half this height.

It is also important to calculate distance as Cape Town is the major outlier http://www.sa-venues.com/2010/accommodation.htm

for example France plays at sea level in far western coastal South Africa vs Uruguay while their next opponent, mexico, plays in J-burg altitude. Then when they meet Mexico it will be in northeast Polokwane with altitude. So France will have to travel 1700 km from one end of South Africa to the other and play in altitude for the first time against a team that is not only used to altitude but has already acclimated to this exact altitude and with a very short trip from J-burg. Really the same goes with Uruguay having to face South Africa in 2nd match though the trip is not as long.

anyway here's a list below

Durban: Sea Level
6/13 Germany v. Australia
6/16 Spain v. Switzerland
6/19 Holland v. Japan
6/22 Nigeria v. South Korea
6/25 Portugal v. Brazil

Cape Town: Sea Level
6/11 Uruguay v. France
6/14 Italy v. Paraguay
6/18 England v. Algeria
6/21 Portugal v. North Korea
6/24 Cameroon v. Holland

Port Elizabeth: Sea Level
6/12 South Korea v. Greece
6/15 Ivory Coast v. Portugal
6/18 Germany v. Serbia
6/21 Chile v. Switzeland
6/23 Slovenia v. England

Nelspruit: 700 meters
6/16 Honduras v. Chile
6/20 Italy v. New Zealand
6/23 Australia v. Serbia
6/25 North Korea v. Ivory Coast

Polokwane: 1,300 meters
6/13 Algeria v. Slovenia
6/17 France v. Mexico
6/22 Greece v. Argentina
6/24 Paraguay v. New Zealand

Pretoria: 1,400 meters
6/13 Serbia v. Ghana
6/16 South Africa v. Uruguay
6/19 Cameroon v. Denmark
6/23 USA v. Algeria
6/25 Chile v. Spain

Bloemfontein: 1,400 meters
6/14 Japan v. Cameroon
6/17 Greece v. Nigeria
6/20 Slovakia v. Paraguay
6/22 France v. South Africa
6/25 Switzerland v. Honduras

Rustenberg: 1,500 meters
6/12 England v. USA
6/15 New Zealand v. Slovakia
6/19 Ghana v. Australia
6/22 Mexico v. Urugay
6/24 Denmark v. Japan

Johannesburg: 1,750 meters+ (JSC and JEP)

JSC
6/11 South Africa v. Mexico
6/14 Holland v. Denmark
6/17 Argentina v. South Korea
6/20 Brazil v. Ivory Coast
6/23 Ghana v. Germany

JEP
6/12 Argentina v. Nigeria
6/15 Brazil v. North Korea
6/18 Slovenia v. USA
6/21 Spain v. Honduras
6/24 Slovakia v. Italy

 

[rolltide]

went back through the Mexico '86 results to see if I could find anything interesting from the altitude vs non-altitude matches but, unfortunately, all but 8 games were played in altitude. Interestingly enough all 8 of those non-altitude games saw at least one team shutout with 9 total goals scored in 8 games. More than half of the altitude matches, 23/42, saw both teams score for an average of 2.93 gpg vs just 1.13 gpg in non-altitude. of course not enough matches played to be statistically significant but perhaps a trend to keep an eye on

 

[Mr.Smith]

I like Chile too. my thought is I'm going to lay -170 and get them -.5

I knew about some major altitude changes, but keep that stuff coming as to who has to travel far and change altitude. France is a big fade to me, I'll be on Mexico there. already hammered Uruguay

 

[rolltide]

some stats for your capping...

of course everyone loves a big favorite which I will categorize as -200 or lower which, in asian handicap terms, means at least laying -1.25 goals. as the first of these games nears, arg vs nigeria, i'll give you the history of how they've fared in first matches of the World Cup

In the past 6 world cups we've had 40 teams listed, at minimum, as a -200 or greater favorite, but only 12 of those teams (30%) won by 2 or more goals. Last WC we had 4 such teams and none of them beat the handicap. 2 won by 1 goal at -1.5, one drew a match at -1.5, while Germany won half on a -1.75 line vs Costa Rica. Opposing these HC in first matches this year means Nigeria +1.25, North Korea +2.50, New Zealand +1.25, and Switzerland +1.50

let's see how this goes...

btw, 2006 was the first time in last 6 world cups when the favorites won more than half of their opening round matches!

 

[hm2.0]

damn, you gots lots of plays already, roll. gl w/ them. You really are sticking to your guns in regards to Argentina...it may bear out.

 

[cornerkick]

Using livescores

I know most of you rely on your livescores, but which ones do you use usually? I've been looking around and found a few websites, one of them being bonusbonusbonus, which is mostly a casino/poker website with a section about sportsbetting, and recently with livescores. I've been watching them for the pre-world cup friendlies and they worked really fast. Has anyone tried them? If not, which ones do you use?

And what's your world cup favourite?

 

[criss_mme]

I know most of you rely on your livescores, but which ones do you use usually? I've been looking around and found a few websites, one of them being bonusbonusbonus, which is mostly a casino/poker website with a section about sportsbetting, and recently with livescores. I've been watching them for the pre-world cup friendlies and they worked really fast. Has anyone tried them? If not, which ones do you use?

And what's your world cup favourite?

Hi, cornerkick. I have also tried BonusBonusBonus live scores for a couple of times...In fact, I discovered this site due to its poker section. I was interested in finding some suitable poker rooms for me and also in getting information about the free rolls tournaments, and this was how I lately discovered the live scores on BonusBonusBonus, which proved to be very useful in winning some football bets.
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It is a good site for this, I truly recommend it. For now the live scores are only for football, but I hope they will soon introduce the tennis, handball and horse racing section.

And, to answer your second question, I do believe GERMANY will win the world cup.

 

[Uscsilb24]

You were exactly right on Chiles domination of Hondorus. I am sorry you only got a draw out of that but it was a complete mismatch of teams. Best of luck on your future bets.