World Cup '06 first set of pool games, June 9-14...

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Sports ANALyst
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Hey everyone, been living in a soccer heaven for two years now, and we're really looking forward to the World Cup down here, especially considering that the first game of the tournament involves the country I call home now.

I might be the only person in Costa Rica that is far more concerned with the 'other' game on June 9th, however. That's because my biggest bet of the first series of games is on Poland against Ecuador in the second game of the tournament.

Detractors will point to Poland's disappointing loss to Colombia last week and say that they are ill-prepared to play a South American team. I say this is because Janas is a jackass, leaving out Liverpool goal Dudek. That left West Brom starter Tomasz Kuszczak as the main backup in net. He badly misplayed a punt by the Colombian keeper punt. It bounced over his head and into the net, cementing his fate. On will come Celtic's Artur Boruc. He was in net when the Polocks beat fellow Cup qualifier Croatia 1-0 Saturday. The Croats got many more opportunities but Boruc was able to keep a clean sheet and give his people confidence heading into the opener. They used a five-man midfield and could do so again on Friday, though it is likely they will be more aggressive and attack-oriented against Ecuador.

The main reason I'm on Poland isn't because of Poland, though. It's because I plan on betting against Ecuador in every game, unless they plan on moving the games out of Germany and south into the Swiss Alps or to Mont Blanc. Ecuador beats everyone when they play in Quito. Get them out of the elevation and they're just not the same bunch.

In their last match, Ecuador beat a team of combined university students 4-3. Two of the goals came from a 17-year old kid who isn't even PLAYING for the World Cup team (just the U-17 team). Ecuador also gave up two goals on set pieces right through the middle of their defense.

The coach is liable to pull a surprise starter or two but the bottom line is that this is a South American team playing against a well-acclimated European team that should relish its opportunity to rack up three points on opening day of the event. Score it 2-1 in favor of the Poles.

The play: Game 405-406 - POLAND PICK - 1500 to win 1500

Back with several more in the coming days, but this will be my big bet of the first set of games...

:smoker2:
 

Sports ANALyst
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The Ivory Coast raised eyebrows with their dominating performance in a 3-0 win over Slovenia the other day. That comes on the throes of two 1-1 draws against Chile and Switzerland. The Chile game wasn't as bad as it looks because they were playing with 10 men throughout most of the game. Chelsea stud Didier Drogba spearheaded two Ivory Coast scores in that prep and Akale scored as well with 19 minutes left. 'The Elephants' have a lot of athleticism and that definitely was too much for the Slovenians. It could also cause a technical team like Argentina difficulty as well.

Argentina was the first of the so-called 'contenders' to arrive in Germany, setting up camp May 31. They haven't played since beating Angola 2-0 last Tuesday and apparently aren't playing any more before the Ivory Coast game. This is a very tough group, second only to Group E in level of difficulty and it's exceedingly likely that the favored Argentineans could be looking ahead to the Serbia & Montenegro game, one that they should struggle with (see March 1 friendly when Croatia beat Argentina 3-2 on Simic's 92nd minute goal).

I'm not convinced the Ivory Coast can beat this team but don't underestimate the African teams (after Togo and Angola)... I'm going with the DRAW in this one. Also will make a small play on Ivory Coast plus 1/2 goal. Will add it later when the money comes flowing in on the favorite as I expect it to.

The play: ARG/CIV DRAW plus 265 - 250 to win 662.50

GL...
 

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Hey CollegeKind Rex - Poland will win that game because Ecuador is way out of its league. The game should be Poland on pointspread and the game over 1.5. As for Ivory Coast, they are good but remember I don't think any African team will make an impact. Probably that game will be a draw.
 

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A perfect parly will be:
Germany on spread game over
Poland spread
Sweden spread and game over
 

Sports ANALyst
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Chivo: Not sure about Sweden and T&T, at least not as sure as everyone else is.

I'm not sure Germany is a cinch to go OVER. It depends on how bad COsta Rica has been. Best case I think they can hope for is a 1-1 draw; I think they could also lose 2-0. So OVER is no cinch but is probably the right side. Thanks for the input. Back with more plays soon...
 

Sports ANALyst
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Dammit, was all set to bet on the Swiss against France and then that jagoff Cisse gets hurt, and now the line moves. Ugh. Have to look at what kind of game will be played now that that turd is out.
 

Sports ANALyst
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Total head-scratcher the other day with the Poles. Close with CIV yesterday.

Back to the drawing board, 0-2 and -1750.

Been looking forward to this live dog since the pools were announced. Mexico ridiculously overpriced today against Iran. Look for a big game from the Iranese midfielders, who have been solid in the friendlies, at least on offense. This should be a wide-open game with plenty of scoring and an win by the Iranis would not surprise me.

The plays: Iran plus 550 - 200 to win 1100

Iran plus 1/2 goal plus 125 - 500 to win 625

IRN/MEX OVER 2.5 plus 130 - 1000 to win 1300

GL all...
 

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I have been waiting for this game as I think Iran will get the better of them. Also like the over. GL Playing this as well.

Iran 3 - Mexico 1 <TABLE class=correct-score><TBODY><TR class=oddrow><TD class=selection><TABLE id=transactions><TBODY><TR class=evenrow><TD class=time>11Jun06 10:56:12 AM</TD><TD class=id>4E010861CE-4111699
SOCC</TD><TD class=selection>Iran 3-1
World Cup 2006 Mexico v Iran</TD><TD class=stake>100.00</TD><TD class=odds>Correct Score Win @ +8000</TD><TD class=money>USD -100.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=odds></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

Gabriel Morency Rules!!
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damn...the over was looking good at half but now looks like a 1-1 draw:smoking:
 

Sports ANALyst
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Now 1-4 and down 1150 after the small winner on the Mexicans and the Iranians track meet Sunday...

I forsee a low-scoring game in the US/Czechs and will try a small play UNDER there. Best I can see each doing under normal circumstances is 1 goal. I see it falling 1-1, perhaps 1-0 either way. Go US....

The play: UNDER 2.5 -151 - 604 to win 400

Passed the first game today. Only see one true value play late and that's Ghana. No time for writeup as I am slaving away at work trying to finish so I can cut out for the day at 10 to watch the US game... Trying this one about every way Pinny offers it. Worst I see is a draw and they could easily beat the distracted Italians.

THe play: Ghana plus 1/2 plus 131 - 300 to win 393
Ghana plus 1 -159 - 636 to win 400
Ghana plus 1/2 and plus 1 -109 (this is 2 seperate bets, half of listed amount on each)... - 654 to win 600
Ghana PICK +380 (draw is refund)... - 200 to win 760

Have a good one, and go US!!!
 

Sports ANALyst
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Jesus, rotten start so far in the first round. Not getting too impatient yet but things need to get better soon.

Now at 1-5 and -3544.

One starts tomorrow before I get to the office. It's Korea -1/2 goal plus 110. Also playing it the other ways too. Togo is in disarray thus far. COach is back but the bonuses aren't there and they haven't even trained every day since arriving in Germany, taking several days off!!! My biggest bet was going to be Poland but this situation has helped me change my mind.

The plays: Korea -1/2 plus 110 - 1000 to win 1100
Korea -1/2 and -1 plus 135 - 400 to win 540
Korea PICK -225 (draw pushes) - 1125 to win 500

GL all, back with more tomorrow...
 

Sports ANALyst
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Got the cash after the Koreans scored twice in the second half this morning. After close examination, I liked Swiss and UNDER in Game 2 but decided to pass. Plenty more opportunity to make cash and I'd like to see the French and how they attack without the versatile Cisse. Swiss defense should keep it UNDER and there was value on their side at plus 1/2 or plus 1... but I chose to sit because I like the late game the best of all today.

Going with Croatia today against the defending champion Brazilians in the opener. I liken Brazil to a car that accelerates from 0-60 really slow but whose top speed is faster than anyone.

This team is undoubtedly the best in the World Cup. But this is also their first match and I'm not sure how well they'll play against the Croats, who are the best of the rest in Group F in my opinion.

The Croatians placed third in France in 1998 before the disappointing 2002 flameout in Korea. They have six players having a total of 51 years' experience of soccer over in Germany, and three of them have German birthplaces in their passports.

The Croats were very impressive in qualifying, tallying two 1-0 victories over Sweden. Croatia gave up a total of just five goals in the 10 qualifying fixtures. Their record was a perfect seven wins, three draws and no losses. This squad came away from their first-ever match against Brazil, a friendly in Split back in August, with a commendable 1-1 draw. They also beat Argentina in March. Their success has been no accident and they better not be taken lightly by the Brazilians in this opener.

The play: Croatia plus 1 1/2 plus 110 - 1200 to win 1320
Croatia plus 1/2 plus 270 - 300 to win 810

GL all!
 

Sports ANALyst
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Nice day overall yesterday, going 2-1 if you want to count a record (I guess) and winning 2692.

Now at 3-6 and down 850 heading into Wednesday. Thank God I was introduced to a new girl last night, courtesy of my neighbor, and was 'preoccupied' at kickoff of the Ukraine game. I woulda bet them big before the tournament started but didn't know the status of Shevchenko. Had I been at the computer or near a telephone at 8:55 or before Eastern, woulda bet them.

Those are the kinda breaks I need to get in the back. It feels like a WIN because I was sooooo wrong. A buddy told me Spain played perhaps the most complete game of the tournament (saying a lot considering how well Czechs, Argentina, Italy played).... Anyways...

One of my bigger bets of the first round is on Tunisia. I'm a big fan of the African teams (sans Togo and Angola) and have bet them all. I think the Saudis are up against it here and the psychology of an 8-0 loss to Germany in the first game in 2002 will work against them, as will not having any players who play in other leagues outside of the country.

The play: Tunisia -1/2 -115 - 1380 to win 1200

GL!
 

Sports ANALyst
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what a bunch of turd burgulars. African teams have been costing me money left and right. Only winner was betting against Togo.

Red-ass play on Germans this afternoon. Overmatch the other team. Only thing scaring me is the horrid Costa Rica defense sure isn't the same thing as facing a Polish team who certainly will play better than they did in Friday's debacle.

THe play: Germany -1/2 goal -222 - 1540 to win 700
 

Sports ANALyst
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Now 4-7 and minus 1530 for WC so far.

Didn't like anything too much the last two days. Hate laying a bad price but 3-to-1 only costs you if you lose and from all the people I've talked to, Portugal has very little chance to not gain three points against a depleted Iran.

The play: Portugal -1/2 goal -300 - 1500 to win 500
 

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