Why would anyone ever wager on a pre season football game?

[BigLou+]

Betting on pre-season is based too much on ones own opinion and information provided by the media or head coaches, which all too often is incorrect. The other day panther posted the QB rotation for the Giants/Pats game but they did not play in the order that he posted them at. Was the website where he got the info incorrect? Did the coach change his mind during the game about who was going to play? Did the coach flat out lie about the rotation? Too many variables betting exhibition games to get a consistent edge over the long haul in my opinion. I believe it's a good time to evaluate teams and players to see if you can find some teams who are ready for the upcoming season or if you can find some that have been over-hyped during the off-season (like I believe my Giants have been). At least it's NFL football which means the real stuff is not far away.

Are you going to any Bills games this year Harrington? Tried to get tickets for the home opener but no luck.

Big Lou

 

[Dante]

I would have to side with the thinking that Preseason is much harder to cap for lots of reasons. A main reason in my eyes is that the coach's do not give a rats ass if they win as it really means nothing. They test there players out. thats my 2 cents

 

[harrington]

Lou just hang around the stadium and about two minutes into the game you will get a ticket for next to nothing. I've never paid more then 20 bucks ever to get into a Bills game, and most of the time I get in for free. I've been doing this since I was 12 years old. Between the people I know taking tickets or the scalpers holding tickets after the game starts it's one of the easiest stadiums to get into for next to nothing. Some might think I am full of shit but I swear this method works every time.

 

[BigLou+]

Since I come in from out of town and stay overnight I like to have the tickets in my hand. Can't see making the three hour drive without knowing for sure I will be getting into the stadium.

Big Lou

 

[harrington]

You will get in, I'm 100% sure. And you call yourself a gambler!

 

[BigLou+]

I'm big on planning ahead. I always go with a friend of mine who lives about 40 minutes away and has his duaghter every other weekend so the Bills have to be playing a home game the weekend he can get away. (On a side note, my buddy is the nephew of Ed Walsh, who was Jim Brown's high school football coach). It's such a small world isn't it?

Big Lou

 

[tgoodm1]

Yeah TTinCo, it seems rather obvious that you fit the profile of a compulsive gambler.

By the way, what you quoted was not meant to be informative. It was just part justification for my not believing there to be value in the preseason.

And it turns out that that info on Plummer getting only 10-12 snaps resulted not to be so golden afterall because Plummer shined the entire time. I don't even know how many snaps he took. The point is that you will not expose any inefficiencies at Vegas when betting on the preseason action. Just wait until the regular season. Preseason presents us with the opportunity to scout and scout only. Why risk money on games when its been 8-9 months since the last time you saw these guys in action.

 

[SaintJoe57]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
Betting on pre-season is based too much on ones own opinion and information provided by the media or head coaches, which all too often is incorrect. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Who the hells opinion do you use to cap Lou if not your own? I certainly rely on my ownself & where prey tell are cappers going to get info without the media unless your connected to an NFL team, which hardly anyone is.

 

[TTinCO]

Yeah Boxing.....I'm full blown compulsive.

Let's see-I've bet about 10 fights & 10 to 15 baseball games since pucks ended. I better go now & find a GA meeting.

 

[sean8499]

My philosophy is to ONLY bet on playoff games. The strongest teams know they can't afford an off-day so they go all out. Not always easy to stay on the sidelines but football is now an extra source of income that I rely on.

 

[IDENTITY]

sean - so u do not bet alll year?

 

[BigLou+]

I meant people seem to bet on the pre-season based on their opinion (like how rookies are going to play in their first ever NFL game or how a team is going to react to a new head coach) rather then time tested methods like systems, statistical angles, etc. My opinion rarely comes into play in making a wager.

Big Lou

 

[ATX]

the majority of NFLX games are toss-ups. If you determine that player A will play for 2 quarters, how accurate is the line that you come up with? Throw in the numerous players who have played very little in NFL regular season games and how does that affect that line? I can see where perceived motivation and a specific gameplan may add value to one team, but this can be very difficult to quantify---and may change throughout the game.

I revert back to my assumption that most of these games are toss-ups, which adds instant value to the dog and the dog moneyline. And this makes 2nd halves even better, IMO. This does not apply to every NFLX game, but keep in mind that if you have a win% of over 60% across a small number of games, this can be as much a product of luck as it is skill. I dont see how someone can wager as much on a preseason game as a regular season game with all the question marks. Do people wager larger amounts on preseason baseball than during the regular season? Just my thoughts, and I suggest CAUTION, there are week 1 lines that look 10 times more valuable to me.

 

[SaintJoe57]

The time tested methods, systems, & statistical angles that you refer to plays only a very small part of my handicapping. I think you use some of that as well as throwing some of yourself into the game to cap it. To each his own I suppose.

 

[Railbird]

Books crushed all the wannabe wiseguys this weekend. Books cleaned up on Jets, Cards and 49ers. Books adjust accordingly now a days, preseason is not as good as it use to be. Too many idiots playing past records of coaches and over reaction to qb rotations. Much more value in tennis, golf or little leauge.

 

[sean8499]

IDENTITY
Certifiably Crazy

posted August 10, 2003 10:25 PM
sean - so u do not bet alll year?

Yep. That is correct. My fate boils down to 2 or 3 big plays on selective playoff games.

 

[CRANDELL]

5-2 in week one. Pre-season has always been a $ maker for me. Lean toward dogs.

 

[Dante]

good job crandell

 

[SSI]

last 16 dogs, went 11-5..

 

[Railbird]

SSI,

whats that suppose to mean, you going to play 16 more dogs this week. past doesnt = future.