Let's also not lose sight that TCU kicked the returning B12 Defensive player of the year off the team before the start of last season. Did not seem to miss him much. Instead of looking at returning starters on defense, look at the kids who won letters on defense. That tells me that they got meaningful snaps. Based on Phil Steele, they have 24 returning lettermen on defense. And Patterson has always been a guy who rotated his players. If I remember correctly he's a 60/40 guy (starter gets 60% of snaps with his defenses). It has allowed him to retool a bit quicker in the past.
WinOne... TCU's defense was highly overrated last year. Who did they stop? Just about every team with half an offense was able to move the ball on them. Baylor scored 61 on them, OU 33, WV 30, Kansas 30. That's not good defense! The reason TCU got away with the things they did was because they were +18 in turnover margin last year. After losing 6 studs on defense they'll have to put up those kinds of TO numbers again if they want to win the Big 12. I have my doubts they can do. I think it's going to be a free for all to win the Big 12 this year. It could end up being even more confusing than last year when they had co-champions.
I don't know, I see a lot of teams out there where their backups may not be much of a dropoff. In the Big 12 OU and OSU would probably carry on close to business as usual if they lost their starters. Both have experienced backups. All I'm saying about Boykin is he's been gotten hurt the last 2 years. So the chances of some type of injury during the season may be a little greater with him.
You got that right! At this point I just don't know what OU will do. I know one thing, they'll be better than they were last year. I heard Baker Mayfield was named the starter today. We'll see how long he lasts or if stays healthy. Like Knight, he's not very big. The Big 12 is a high risk conference for QB's, so it could be survival of the luckiest team by the end of the season.
Here's an interesting article comparing the current CFP futures to the AP top 25 poll rankings. They claim Arizona is the most over-rated team because they have the largest discrepancy in terms of where they rank in the AP Poll versus their odds to win the CFP. I'm not sure its the best comparison though at the futures odds probably look more at schedule difficulty and the fact that Arizona is probably only the 5th or 6th best team in their conference and the 4th best team within their division.
[h=1]2015 College Football: AP Top 25 vs. Oddsmaker Rankings[/h]NCAA FOOTBALL
↔
The College Football season kicks off on Thursday, September 3rd with three games scheduled — all of which involve at least one ranked team. The action continues on Friday night with another three games, before we hit the ground running with a full slate of games on Saturday including the highly-anticipated showdown between #20 Wisconsin and #3 Alabama.
[ Save 40% off our Pro subscription by purchasing the Early Bird Special ]
In the past we have discussed how bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams, and this typically creates value on their opponent. We will also frequently hear broadcasters celebrating an “upset” when an unranked team defeats their ranked opposition, even when the unranked team actually closed as the favorite. In other words, uneducated (or square) bettors will put a lot of stock in ranked teams, but oddsmakers typically have the better gauge on the nation’s top teams.
Before the start of the season, we wanted to compare the current championship futures at 5Dimes (a well-respected offshore sportsbook) with the current Associated Press (AP) Top 25 rankings. This will help us pinpoint which teams are being overvalued by pollsters, and therefore most casual fans.
Search:
PreviousNext
The largest discrepancies between the oddsmakers and the pollsters involved Michigan, Texas and Florida, but that doesn’t mean those teams are offering value. Along with Notre Dame, these are arguably three of the most popular and visible football programs in the country. Oddsmakers will frequently shade their odds to account for the inevitable influx of public money, so we shouldn’t read too much into these deviations.
Looking past this trio, the most undervalued teams appear to be two SEC schools: Texas A&M and LSU. The Aggies have the 19th best odds of winning the National Championship, however, they are currently unranked to start the season (although they received the second most votes among unranked teams).
This is particularly interesting because their Week 1 opponent, Arizona State, is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Sun Devils begin the season as the 15th ranked team; however, oddsmakers give them just the 22nd best odds of winning the National Championship. This seven spot disparity places Arizona State as the nation’s fifth most overrated team.
Texas A&M is currently a 3-point favorite across the sports betting marketplace, but bettors should be sure to visit our free College Football odds page for the latest lines, injuries and public betting trends.
While Arizona State is being vastly overvalued by AP Top 25 voters, it’s their mortal rival Arizona that owns the dubious honor of being the most overrated team. The Wildcats only have the 34th best odds (+20,000) of winning the National Championship, yet they open the season as the nation’s #22 ranked team. This 12-spot disparity indicates that bettors are likely to overvalue Arizona, which could create contrarian value on their Week 1 opponent (UTSA +32).
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
[h=1]2015 College Football: AP Top 25 vs. Oddsmaker Rankings[/h]NCAA FOOTBALL
by DAVID SOLAR on AUGUST 25, 2015
↔The College Football season kicks off on Thursday, September 3rd with three games scheduled — all of which involve at least one ranked team. The action continues on Friday night with another three games, before we hit the ground running with a full slate of games on Saturday including the highly-anticipated showdown between #20 Wisconsin and #3 Alabama.
[ Save 40% off our Pro subscription by purchasing the Early Bird Special ]
In the past we have discussed how bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams, and this typically creates value on their opponent. We will also frequently hear broadcasters celebrating an “upset” when an unranked team defeats their ranked opposition, even when the unranked team actually closed as the favorite. In other words, uneducated (or square) bettors will put a lot of stock in ranked teams, but oddsmakers typically have the better gauge on the nation’s top teams.
Before the start of the season, we wanted to compare the current championship futures at 5Dimes (a well-respected offshore sportsbook) with the current Associated Press (AP) Top 25 rankings. This will help us pinpoint which teams are being overvalued by pollsters, and therefore most casual fans.
Search:
| TEAM | 5DIMES (8/25) | ODDSMAKER RANK | AP TOP 25 | DISCREPENCY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +305 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TCU | +1050 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| Alabama | +950 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Baylor | +2300 | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| Michigan State | +2800 | T-10 | 5 | -5 |
| Auburn | +1600 | T-4 | 6 | 2 |
| Oregon | +2600 | 9 | 7 | -2 |
| USC | +1600 | T-4 | 8 | 4 |
| Georgia | +2800 | T-10 | 9 | -1 |
| Florida State | +1750 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| Notre Dame | +3100 | T-12 | 11 | -1 |
| Clemson | +3100 | T-12 | 12 | 0 |
| UCLA | +3300 | 14 | 13 | -1 |
| LSU | +2200 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| Arizona State | +9000 | 22 | 15 | -7 |
| Georgia Tech | +10000 | T-23 | 16 | -7 |
| Mississippi | +5000 | T-16 | 17 | 1 |
| Arkansas | +5000 | T-16 | 18 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | +4000 | 15 | 19 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | +10000 | T-23 | 20 | -3 |
| Stanford | +5700 | 18 | 21 | 3 |
| Arizona | +20000 | T-34 | 22 | -12 |
| Boise State | +18000 | 33 | 23 | -10 |
| Missouri | +20000 | T-34 | 24 | -10 |
| Tennessee | +7500 | T-20 | 25 | 5 |
The largest discrepancies between the oddsmakers and the pollsters involved Michigan, Texas and Florida, but that doesn’t mean those teams are offering value. Along with Notre Dame, these are arguably three of the most popular and visible football programs in the country. Oddsmakers will frequently shade their odds to account for the inevitable influx of public money, so we shouldn’t read too much into these deviations.
Looking past this trio, the most undervalued teams appear to be two SEC schools: Texas A&M and LSU. The Aggies have the 19th best odds of winning the National Championship, however, they are currently unranked to start the season (although they received the second most votes among unranked teams).
This is particularly interesting because their Week 1 opponent, Arizona State, is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Sun Devils begin the season as the 15th ranked team; however, oddsmakers give them just the 22nd best odds of winning the National Championship. This seven spot disparity places Arizona State as the nation’s fifth most overrated team.
Texas A&M is currently a 3-point favorite across the sports betting marketplace, but bettors should be sure to visit our free College Football odds page for the latest lines, injuries and public betting trends.
While Arizona State is being vastly overvalued by AP Top 25 voters, it’s their mortal rival Arizona that owns the dubious honor of being the most overrated team. The Wildcats only have the 34th best odds (+20,000) of winning the National Championship, yet they open the season as the nation’s #22 ranked team. This 12-spot disparity indicates that bettors are likely to overvalue Arizona, which could create contrarian value on their Week 1 opponent (UTSA +32).
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
Agree but I don't think Patterson is asking his defense to be like TCU defenses of the past. Basically he wants his defense to get a couple of stops, some turnovers and let the offense dictate the pace. That's why last year when they had injuries on offense I kept telling people that the next guy up would be even better. When BJ Catalon went down, they put Green in and he was even better. Same at WR where they added Doctson and Listenbee who are both world class sprinters who can catch the football. Defensively when he adopted the spread offense and brought in Cumbie to be co-OC, that he went to Dick Bumpus and put a system in place to play more kids defensively so that they would not be as gassed in games. Time will tell, but the promising thing for them (barring injuries) is they have some time to ramp up because the tough games come at the end of the season. The last month of the Big12 is going to separate the pretenders from the contenders. It's going to be a race to the finish line. And I could see 3 teams potentially with 1 conference loss again, if TCU stumbles. I don't think they will stumble twice though.
WinOne!!
best prediction since wronghorn had garrett gilbert winning the heisman
i haven't seen a beatdown this bad since the Ray Rice elevator tape:
| Matchup |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 8 | 30 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-14 | 8-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 163 | 527 |
| Passing | 103 | 313 |
| Comp-Att | 8-23 | 19-23 |
| Yards per pass | 3.8 | 13.0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Rushing | 60 | 214 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 52 |
| Yards per rush | 2.1 | 4.1 |
| Penalties | 4-50 | 6-39 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 20:50 | 39:10 |
I made a post in someone else's thread a week ago about the MYTH of TEXAS playing great defense. It's a FARCE to think that they play great defense. Sure they had a shutout of Kansas last year, but when they played teams with decent offenses, they really did not slow anyone down. I'm guessing that this will be HC Strong's last year. I don't think he see's year 3. He was a good coordinator under some good HC's in the SEC and recruited using the name of the school and the HC he worked with. Kids went to the programs based on the HC not him. I've not seen anything he's done here in Texas where there are tons of recruits and I still dont think he has his QB on campus.best prediction since wronghorn had garrett gilbert winning the heisman
i haven't seen a beatdown this bad since the Ray Rice elevator tape:
Matchup 1st Downs 8 30 3rd down efficiency 2-14 8-14 4th down efficiency 0-0 0-0 Total Yards 163 527 Passing 103 313 Comp-Att 8-23 19-23 Yards per pass 3.8 13.0 Interceptions thrown 0 0 Rushing 60 214 Rushing Attempts 29 52 Yards per rush 2.1 4.1 Penalties 4-50 6-39 Turnovers 0 0 Fumbles lost 0 0 Interceptions thrown 0 0 Possession 20:50 39:10
Cant wait to get back to Dallas to see what some of my UT buddies have to say about this, especially a couple that went up to SB for the game.
The Big 12 did not have a banner opening week, with the exception of Oklahoma, and Texas was the worst of the bunch. The only question left for Texas is just how many losses will they have this season. I can easily see 7. Texas fans should just leave now. Got it jblonghorn. That was a classic post.
