Why do Bookmakers Win ? Why Can't we Do what They Do ? Calculate the Games and come up with Their numbers ?

[PatsFan1283]

I get what people are saying about juice but if they don't make efficient lines then that -110 isnt going to be enough margin for error.

.5pts in bball is worth about 9 cents, in NFL point values vary but just beating the closing line by .5 is going to yield winning results consistently for bettors.

Granted all all the books move lines in unison now so it's a little easier to have sharper lines. But just juice isn't good enough of your lines suck.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Juice over human fallacies?

What do you mean? In terms of people's thought process?

 

[Akillies]

[h=1]33.9% rate in Week 7[/h] Dave Tuley
VSiN.com senior reporter
October 23, 2017 11:31 PM


LAS VEGAS–The collective group of SuperContest entrants had a historically bad week.
The Top 5 Consensus went 0-5 with the Bengals, Packers, Panthers Broncos and 49ers all failing to cover against the SuperContest spreads. You might recall that in Week 1, the Top 5 also went 0-5. In that week, the overall consensus on all games went 5-9-1 and all picks of all SuperContestants went a pitiful 4999-7772-899 (39.1%).
Well, this Week 7 was far worse as the overall consensus (using the most-picked team in each game) went 1-13-1 (with the top 11 picks all losing) after the Redskins failed to cover as 5-point underdogs on the SuperContest line in their 34-24 loss to the Eagles. The Vikings was the only winner to get picked by a majority of SuperContestants while the push was in the Jets-Dolphins game as Miami won 31-28 as a 3-point home favorite.
Furthermore, all picks of all players ended up 4,344-8,482-809 (33.9% after throwing out the pushes). ComptrBob, a poster in my ViewFromVegas.com Forums (who also goes by @ComptrBob on Twitter) points out that the previous worst SuperContest week he has on record was Week 3 of 2013 when SuperContestants hit a combined 36.7%.

 

[Akillies]

34% and those are stale lines and [supposedly] sharp players

 

[seldomseen]

What do you mean? In terms of people's thought process?

Human nature maybe would have been a better way to put it. Removing emotion kind of goes against or is hardest to overcome. You can line shop .10.

 

[candy7]

Juice is a wonderful thing...but bookmakers would get destroyed without it....

1000% correct. the leverage that it affords you is incredible. you sit there with positions where you stand to lose $23,000 or win $40,000. that is just a random example but it illustrates the power of juice.

 

[candy7]

-110 that's it. Books lose more decisions than they win.

that is true but they win a larger percentage of the huge decisions than the lose by a good margin. it could be the "masses are asses" theory that supports being a contrairian.

 

[eventhorizon]

It is published here in Las Vegas that in Pro Football the house holds 4% or less of straight bets and overall about 28-30% of all bets (some years they have held 40%). So how does the house and bookies make money? PARLAYS. Anything over a 4 team parlay the hold is 33% (4 teams true odds 15-1, what they pay is 10-1. 5 teams true odds 31-1, what they pay is 20-1...etc). They have a big margin to play with. It is hard to lose when you have a takeout/tax of 33% on a lot of bets.

 

[candy7]

Roxy Roxborough started it all

bob martin started it many, many moons ago.

 

[PatsFan1283]

It is published here in Las Vegas that in Pro Football the house holds 4% or less of straight bets and overall about 28-30% of all bets (some years they have held 40%). So how does the house and bookies make money? PARLAYS. Anything over a 4 team parlay the hold is 33% (4 teams true odds 15-1, what they pay is 10-1. 5 teams true odds 31-1, what they pay is 20-1...etc). They have a big margin to play with. It is hard to lose when you have a takeout/tax of 33% on a lot of bets.

Your premise that the hold is higher thanks to parlays is right but it isn't quite that high. House hold on straight bets is about 4-5% but on parlays it is about 10-30% depending on the parlay. This usually brings the house hold to an average of 5.5-6% of all bets placed. Keep in mind overall longshot parlays like that is still a pretty low % of overall wagers though.

The big sportsbooks that are subsidiaries of public traded companies publish this info and that is usually the range it is in.

 

[Betallsports]

bob martin started it many, many moons ago.

I was talking about Las Vegas Sports Consultants

 

[candy7]

I was talking about Las Vegas Sports Consultants

gotch ya. correcto.

 

[eventhorizon]

Sorry patsfan but you are wrong. The casinos disclose their profits every year. They post these numbers on a regular basis. A couple of years ago the casinos were worried the volume would be down because they were holding 40%( the public had a bad year). If you take all sports the hold is smaller but Pro Football is very high.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Just to be clear we're talking about the same thing, I am saying say 5 billion is bet, they end up winning like 250-300 million. Thus 5.5-6%. Is that what you are referring to?

The Nevada Gaming Control Board tracks this stuff and if you scroll through the PDF's you can see it is around 5.5-6%. It's on the 4th page.

http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=11852

 

[eventhorizon]

They say they pay a little on Saturday and get it back plus more on Sunday. You see on the chart the hold on parlays was around 18% for 2016, Much worse than straight bets. Gaming today post articles on Vegas' overall wins. Fun reading during football Season.

 

[WhiteyBulger]

Candy7 said it perfect.

 

[exploited17]

Isn't their websites where you can take other peoples bets? You know.....as opposed to making the bets yourself. Kinda like being the bookie. You make an agrreement to take someones wager or not.

 

[tatehill2000]

It is published here in Las Vegas that in Pro Football the house holds 4% or less of straight bets and overall about 28-30% of all bets (some years they have held 40%). So how does the house and bookies make money? PARLAYS. Anything over a 4 team parlay the hold is 33% (4 teams true odds 15-1, what they pay is 10-1. 5 teams true odds 31-1, what they pay is 20-1...etc). They have a big margin to play with. It is hard to lose when you have a takeout/tax of 33% on a lot of bets.

NFL IS probably closest to even for the house.. NBA COLFB and COLBB is were they Crush the public.. straights, as well as parlays

 

[tatehill2000]

Just to be clear we're talking about the same thing, I am saying say 5 billion is bet, they end up winning like 250-300 million. Thus 5.5-6%. Is that what you are referring to?

The Nevada Gaming Control Board tracks this stuff and if you scroll through the PDF's you can see it is around 5.5-6%. It's on the 4th page.

http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=11852

Wow, this is awsome.. i havent seenthis before..

 

[PatsFan1283]

They say they pay a little on Saturday and get it back plus more on Sunday. You see on the chart the hold on parlays was around 18% for 2016, Much worse than straight bets. Gaming today post articles on Vegas' overall wins. Fun reading during football Season.

I dunno if the hold is bigger on CFB than NFL, haven't seen that anywhere. Even if it is, I doubt it is by much. I think the 5.5-6% number for football is more or less the ballpark for both college and pro.

I know parlays are huge fish bets with big house edges (unless correlated) but I think you are overestimating the volume on those bets. Most of them are in the $20-50 range and very few are in the 4 figure range. It's probably not more than 10% of all NFL action.