Why "beating the closing number" works

[PlaysnFades]

This is really good information. Sometimes I bet too early and I have a worse line than the closing line. The percentages must be way worse for those too.

 

[PokerKingJim]

The problem with this logic is that you are assuming that the closing number is the "correct" number or in other words, the closing number is going to be the exact end result of the game. The closing number is not correlated with the information you have provided - it is correlated with the final score of each game. Your data is proof that finding the best number is important, it does not prove that beating the closing line is important.

 

[onemwtheone]

The problem with this logic is that you are assuming that the closing number is the "correct" number or in other words, the closing number is going to be the exact end result of the game. The closing number is not correlated with the information you have provided - it is correlated with the final score of each game. Your data is proof that finding the best number is important, it does not prove that beating the closing line is important.

It's like the old advertising adage - half the money on it is wasted, you're just never sure which half. You'll play lots of games where you beat the closing line and still have a terrible number. You'll play some where it goes the other way. Overall, you're +ev if you can't beat the closing line by a sufficient margin.

 

[PokerKingJim]

Who is to say the closing number is more accurate than the opening number? Is there any statistical evidence on this?

 

[Scoops]

Fave Early ,Dog Late

 

[quantumleap]

the problem is its hard to beat closing number, or know what it will be

Thank you CapNCash. I can't tell you how many times I've read how important it is to beat the closing line but I can't remember too many posts telling me how to do it.

 

[bellyputter]

Predicting line movement is the key to winning at sports wagering. This is why Billy Walters NEVER lays a bad #.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Predicting line movement is the key to winning at sports wagering. This is why Billy Walters NEVER lays a bad #.

Especially when he moves those retarded lines...:toast:

 

[bellyputter]

Especially when he moves those retarded lines...:toast:

And the tack-ons have never laid a good #. Especially when he buys back. VIEJO, Remember all those "phony orders" in the 80s? Wewoka switch!

 

[Muddy]

i thought it was more like 10%, without looking it up. As in about 10% of nfl games are won by 3 points.

15%