Why aren't we unloading on Pats to win Superbowl at plus money?

[MantisToboggan]

After losing to Seattle/Wilson, NE has faced Fitzpatrick twice, Kaepernick, Goff, Flacco, Siemian, Moore and Osweiler. I don't think we can definitively say if NE's D is good.

 

[Willie99]

in 32 playoff games under Belichick, the Patriots have allowed 30 points 3 times

06 Colts
09 Ravens
14 Ravens

 

[Willie99]

After losing to Seattle/Wilson, NE has faced Fitzpatrick twice, Kaepernick, Goff, Flacco, Siemian, Moore and Osweiler. I don't think we can definitively say if NE's D is good.

I don't think you can simply ignore the fact that they're number 1 in scoring defense and number 8 in total defense. Maybe their schedule helped those numbers, but they simply can't be summarily dismissed

 

[MantisToboggan]

their defense is better than most people think, because everybody always says they're overrated, and combined with Belichick's game planning they shouldn't get rolled

Maybe. Belichick is the best but he's going end up with the 23rd DVOA pass defense against either Ryan or Rodgers.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I don't think you can simply ignore the fact that they're number 1 in scoring defense and number 8 in total defense. Maybe their schedule helped those numbers, but they simply can't be summarily dismissed

They are 16th in DVOA. 23rd vs pass and 4th vs the run. It's not a bad defense but I think the fact that they allowed the fewest points doesn't mean much.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I'm not attempting to argue that NE isn't a worthy favorite to win the whole thing. They are. I'm just saying allowing the fewest points isn't something I'd hang my hat on.

 

[Willie99]

They're ranked 8th overall, 3rd against the run and 12th against the pass for the season

So I looked up their DVOA rankings, some system created to change raw numbers, and this site has them 3rd on offense, 7th on defense and number one overall

eams in yellow are still alive in the playoffs. Teams in gray lost this past weekend.

	TEAM	WEI. DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEI OFF DVOA	OFF. RANK	WEI DEF DVOA	DEF. RANK	WEI S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK	TOTAL DVOA	RANK
1	NE	38.0%	1	15-2	22.5%	3	-9.5%	7	6.1%	5	27.6%	1
2	PIT	27.2%	2	13-5	12.6%	8	-14.6%	4	-0.1%	20	18.3%	4
3	ATL	25.0%	4	12-5	29.4%	1	4.0%	21	-0.3%	22	21.3%	2
4	DAL	22.2%	3	13-4	18.6%	5	0.6%	18	4.1%	7	20.7%	3
5	GB	22.0%	6	12-6	28.0%	2	7.0%	25	1.0%	13	16.4%	6
6	KC	19.7%	5	12-5	5.9%	11	-3.0%	13	10.8%	1	13.5%	7
7	BAL	14.9%	8	8-8	1.8%	14	-5.0%	11	8.1%	3	5.9%	10
8	TEN	12.9%	9	9-7	14.7%	7	6.8%	23	5.0%	6	3.9%	13
9	WAS	11.9%	10	8-7-1	21.9%	4	8.4%	27	-1.6%	24	9.2%	8
10	PHI	10.5%	7	7-9	-3.8%	19	-6.4%	9	7.8%	4	17.1%	5
11	NYG	8.2%	12	11-6	-9.8%	25	-17.3%	2	0.8%	15	4.9%	12
12	TB	7.3%	11	9-7	-1.0%	16	-8.8%	8	-0.5%	23	-1.6%	21
13	ARI	5.5%	16	7-8-1	-1.2%	17	-12.0%	5	-5.3%	28	1.7%	16
14	CIN	5.2%	13	6-9-1	4.3%	12	-1.2%	15	-0.2%	21	3.0%	15
15	IND	4.8%	14	8-8	7.3%	10	5.1%	22	2.6%	9	-5.1%	24
16	OAK	2.0%	17	12-5	3.3%	13	1.9%	20	0.7%	16	5.3%	11
	TEAM	WEI. DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEI OFF DVOA	OFF. RANK	WEI DEF DVOA	DEF. RANK	WEI S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK	TOTAL DVOA	RANK
17	SEA	1.8%	15	11-6-1	-5.0%	21	-5.0%	12	1.9%	12	8.3%	9
18	NO	0.0%	18	7-9	14.9%	6	12.8%	30	-2.1%	25	-0.4%	17
19	CAR	-2.7%	19	6-10	-12.9%	27	-10.0%	6	0.2%	17	-4.8%	23
20	MIA	-5.0%	21	10-7	-0.5%	15	6.9%	24	2.3%	11	-1.9%	22
21	DEN	-6.1%	20	9-7	-21.5%	29	-20.0%	1	-4.5%	27	3.8%	14
22	BUF	-7.7%	23	7-9	10.0%	9	12.2%	28	-5.5%	29	-0.7%	18
23	SD	-9.1%	22	5-11	-9.1%	24	-5.7%	10	-5.8%	30	-1.0%	19
24	JAC	-9.3%	25	3-13	-8.4%	23	-2.1%	14	-3.0%	26	-10.7%	26
25	CHI	-9.5%	24	3-13	-1.9%	18	7.6%	26	0.0%	19	-7.9%	25
26	HOU	-10.9%	27	10-8	-22.0%	30	-17.0%	3	-5.9%	31	-18.0%	28
27	MIN	-12.8%	26	8-8	-12.0%	26	1.6%	19	0.8%	14	-1.1%	20
28	SF	-16.3%	29	2-14	-5.6%	22	13.0%	31	2.3%	10	-19.7%	29
29	DET	-18.3%	28	9-8	-3.8%	20	17.5%	32	3.1%	8	-17.6%	27
30	CLE	-27.4%	30	1-15	-15.3%	28	12.3%	29	0.1%	18	-30.9%	31
31	NYJ	-33.5%	31	5-11	-27.2%	31	-0.4%	16	-6.7%	32	-32.4%	32
32	LARM	-44.2%	32	4-12	-53.0%	32	0.1%	17	8.9%	2	-29.0%	30

<tbody>
</tbody>

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-19-dvoa-ratings

 

[Willie99]

I don't even look at that stuff when capping, my point being that there are underlying reasons why the Patriots are successful

It's hard to argue anybody is better offensively, although one can give the nod to Atlanta

On the defensive side of the ball, they're the best of the remaining 4 teams. Pitt is a close 2nd, Atl and GB are nowhere on the radar screen.

I think it's possible the remaining teams can score a bunch on NE, but it's more likely that NE scores a bunch on them, especially the NFC teams

 

[MantisToboggan]

I don't even look at that stuff when capping, my point being that there are underlying reasons why the Patriots are successful

It's hard to argue anybody is better offensively, although one can give the nod to Atlanta

On the defensive side of the ball, they're the best of the remaining 4 teams. Pitt is a close 2nd, Atl and GB are nowhere on the radar screen.

I think it's possible the remaining teams can score a bunch on NE, but it's more likely that NE scores a bunch on them, especially the NFC teams

The DVOA numbers I posted were from the start of the playoffs. It looks like NE jumped quite a bit off of the Houston game. DVOA isn't perfect, no stat is, but, in my opinion, it's preferable to stats (like yards allowed or points allowed) that don't weight results based on factors like quality of opponent.

I know you have confidence in Belichick, I don't blame you. I'm simply saying it's difficult for me to confidently say they can stop the top 2 offenses in football.

You have to admit, they haven't faced many good QBs this year.

 

[MantisToboggan]

The pats have faced Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler (twice), Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler/Charlie Whitehurst, Andy Dalton, Landry Jones, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, and Matt Moore.

 

[Saints2016]

The pats have faced Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler (twice), Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler/Charlie Whitehurst, Andy Dalton, Landry Jones, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, and Matt Moore.

Still think NE will win this, but man have they faced some weak QBs

 

[MantisToboggan]

Still think NE will win this, but man have they faced some weak QBs

I agree. They deserve to be the favorite. Belichick is unreal with defensive game plans, knows Pittsburgh well and Ben has looked shaky. He then gets two weeks to prepare for Atl/GB. They'll be tough to beat.