Why are humans involved at all in bookmaking?

Seven · Dec 4, 2003

First of all, I think that Java's first response and all of CHIPS' posts have been right on.
The second thing that nobody has mentioned is that books can chart their players differently now. For example, Billy Walters can be charted at 150%, so if he bets 10k, it will show up as 15k. In contrary, if Joe Square bets 10k and you chart him at 30%, it will show up as a 3k bet.
Overall, I have to agree that this could never happen at a store that takes a lot of sharp action. Bookies use their instincts and their sharper players to move lines. Also they judge how much they want to take back on a game depending on how sharp they fill the play is.

TheGeneral+ · Dec 4, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> This is what I like seeing on our forum guys...
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Much so. We will keep trying.

SrMuny · Dec 4, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by unstoppable:
Im sure the process is automated already to some extent at all offshore books, but why arent the lines completely controlled by the inflow of money with software adjusting lines accordingly?

If someone attempts to place a large bet that would throw the balance way off, then their bet could just be kicked out and be made to call in to see if it can be accomadated.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ALREADY BEING DONE...........

scott · Dec 4, 2003

I've been in charge of quite a few race/sports books in LV. I was always given a br, pencil & paper and the owners got out of the way. I made serious $$ for them. Could a computer have made/earned more ?? I doubt it but.....
ScottyS

SkyMasterson+ · Dec 5, 2003

Wow interesting topic and there are some myths which need addressing.

Firstly, ACW. I understand your point about the bookmakers in England but as somebody who has booked bets on both sides of the Atlantic there are huge differences. The horse guys that were beating the books in the UK were representing such a big percentage of horseracing turnover at telephone and internet books that they were making it unprofitable. There are very few horeracing punters that bet more than a few hundred pounds and the horseracing market in the UK is inefficient because a) prices are controlled by a handful of on course bookmakers who can and do manipulate prices to their own end and b) because the nature of each way betting means that some favourites go off at prices which they shouldn't because to shorten them would involve lengthening horses and therefore inflating their place prices.

Secondly, anyone that thinks that it would be easier for the bookmaker at a square shop to be replaced by a computer is sadly mistaken. A great example is "J" at Bodog. He makes his company more money because he has a very good grasp of where his customers are likely to bet. Now obviously a computer can realise that a square shop should shade all favourites, or the Lakers every day, but the sheer amount of logic to replicate the feel required is huge and would require a bookmaker who is articulate and tech savvy enough to describe it to a coder.....generally we are not. As an example....Normally I would open a line on the Army/Navy game at, say, Navy -22 and first half maybe -12 but on this occasion we decide to make 1h Navy -13.5-115 because Army's scoring is skewed to late in the game (specifically the fourth quarter). Similarly I will likely shade the 2nd half to Army because of this. I am not suggesting that this cannot be programmed but it is a unique situation in the same way as the trend to the under in the second half of Nuggets is. I am not sure that a computer handling this would not create twice as many opportunities for the pros. After all it didn't take Billy Walters long to realise that he could send us all the wrong way with a relatively small amount of money and then have twice as much on the other side at a line a point better......and he isn't the only one playing these kind of games.

The battle between bookmaker and wiseguy is no different to a battle between Phil Hellmuth and Doyle Brunson. To automate either in full would involve both changing strategy hugely and take away a lot of the fun. I am not sure it can be done but I would love to try it one day

Sky

acw · Dec 5, 2003

Honestly I cannot judge American sports too well. I am still learning. Neither do I know that much about English racing other than that it was as much a psychological game one had to play with the books in regards to getting on than just finding an edge several years ago. BetFair has drastically changed English racing!

Anyhow let us get back to the question if a computer can do all the work. On the European football it is successfully being done by at least a few that I know. Indosoccer is one of them. Imagine a match like Manchester United-Arsenal. Indosoccer thinks it is a 50/50 chance of MU winning them, so they put up this match at MU -1/2 goal -105 on both sides. Now these guys at Indosoccer are very smart. They are not like the English bookmakers trying to be clever in finding losing gamblers. No, these guys understand the ethics of bookmaking and simply want to have a position in which they are happy to lay both sides. They in general put prices up very early, so their initial prices simply have got to be very accurate, but they also know very well that in doing that they make themselves vulnerable. It does not remain there though. These guys have learnt something else too: Respect the public! Actually it is common sense. If one puts up 10 cent lines a week before the actual matches and is willing to take big amounts on them already, there will be guys out there that have more knowledge of those games and are trying to get you. Ok money comes in on MU. At this stage already many will say: “Oh money coming in on MU, but that is not smart. That team is the public’s favourite. I will take it!” For those that still believe this is not smart money: Those that have just backed MU and done nothing else for years already have been making around 10% on turnover, but more important remember at Indosoccer they are bookmakers and not gamblers! At some stage there is about US$20k more on MU than Arsenal, so they make MU -108 and Arsenal -102. Still money comes in on MU. Now MU becomes -110 and Arsenal Even Money. Now, believe me at some stage money will come back in on Arsenal. Well this whole process is being done fully automatic 24 hours a day! Is this so difficult to program?

jip · Dec 6, 2003

acw,

The example you choose is good for markets that are going to be up a while and can be guarenteed to have money flowing in all week on both sides.

In Sky Mastersons example about half-time lines, the line is up for a short time and comparatively will not take much action. This is where the skill of the bookmaker predicting betting patterns and knowing the trends of the teams invovlved really comes into play.

To teach a computer to "know" to that Army's scoring pattern is scewed towards late in the fourth quarter you would need to have it crunching all kinds of data. Multiply this by the number of events and for different sports and it soon becomes clear you will need a supercomputer to come up with anything approaching an accurate opinion.

wilheim · May 11, 2007

.........

acw · Sep 23, 2017

I saw Sky Masterson commenting on Harry's book:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Backing-Big-Fella-Harry-Findlay/dp/1910335606

I thought I remember that guy and did the search on the forum here.
Interesting thread!

2ndhalf · Mar 3, 2018

Interesting read. If we really transferred our knowledge to artificial intelligence, then computers could do it like human does. I cannot see why technology cannot do it if we are willing to make it happens.