Who thinks betting on sports is easier than the stock market?

[Anti-liberal]

In sports you can look at trends and how the public reacts and has reacted in the past (when seeking middles and scaulps).

With commdtys, you are dealing with reports not privy to the public, weather (huge factor), gas prices (cost of production) and trade deals with 3rd world countries.

IMO to get a REAL feel for the comdty mkt is a pipe dream.

just IMO.....

Unquestionably, to jump into stock or commodities markets with little or no experience will get you PUNISHED. In sports gambling, you were a wiseguy. In stocks and commodities, you're on the outside looking in. You are a square that the Wall Street types will eat for lunch.

 

[SSI]

one of the best tools to use is the fibaconni lines......... they are used to retrace the length of the last movement......... they occur in 37-50-67% increments........

ill give you an example.................

wed high in april hogs 64.20, low wed 62.52............. a 50% retrace of this move is around 63.37............ it hit this exactly on the head....... a perfect entry long could have been made at 63.40......... and you would have had this order waiting,,,,,, all due to the retrace of this movement..

this is all technical, has nothing to do with any hog report.....

 

[boatboatboat]

boat, do you know what technical trading is........

it has nothing to do, with being computer generated....... it has to do with the price movement and charting.......... i spend hours looking at prices and charts..............

there are many things involved in technical trading and mine have nothing to do with a computer program........

SSI if you care to exchange info, let me know. I am reading all your post.

BTW I have a series 63/6/7 I have been in the industry for 18 years, Own my own agency.

Once a mth I'll have a client liquidate funds to try their hand at CMMDTY's. Few do well.

Yes, I know what tech trades are. They are trades that are done to current movements in the prices. The next step is to simply have a computer make the trades for you based upon parms that you set. Trade while you are out back byb the pool. It's very common.

GL.

 

[Anti-liberal]

The guys on the right side of the day-trading business are the ones receiving the commisions of the trades.

 

[SSI]

there are many, many other technical tools to use.....

Bollinger bands are great for determining the movement in a market..... has nothing to do with fundamentals.......

triple tops and bottoms, you must know, where these are at....

double tops, bottom, another important fact..

gaps in the market, a huge bit of information......

this is where the real market and the real trading occur.....

It has nothing to do with, saying there is going to be a small crop this year.. that knowledge will only tell you, that prices will go higher.... you must then have the technical skill to apply this........ and that takes experience.........

 

[boatboatboat]

The guys on the right side of the day-trading business are the ones receiving the commisions of the trades.

 

[SSI]

I am against daytrading,,,,,,,, to the highest level....... ive been there done that.............

you must go into the day, with a plan and do not deviate from it...... you cant start making up things, when the market starts to move......

I will have some setup trades in the emini sp market and they will be daytrades but they are pre-determined trades and may take all day to setup or may not set up at all.......... these will be based on pure momentum and for the most part are layups........... these are easy pickins, when you have big reversal days.........

 

[Santo]

How can you imply there is no "stop loss" in sports. Unless you're dumb and make huge % of bankroll bets, the stop loss is of course there.

 

[SSI]

boat, get my email from a mod, and email me anytime......... ill be around and online in the mornings......

 

[SSI]

Santo, who said that?

 

[Santo]

WOW ok Ice I will give you 10k and expect 400%. These are the kind of statements that makes others thonk this is easy. 400% is just a crazy figure to throw out there.

All you guys that think gambling on young stupid guys is easier than putting that money to use in the stock market is foolish. Ever hear of the stop loss on stocks. You can dictate how much you lose. In gambling if you get on TheWrongSide you lose.

This post.

 

[SSI]

funny how discipline is so important in both..........

ill admit, its the most difficult for me.................

I have to have a detailed plan, laid out the night before.......... then follow it to the letter........... a plan in place, if the market goes up or down, or sideways.......... this will keep me one step ahead..........

by doing this, i know that i can make it............. i know the markets and am good enough to trade for a living...... im going to do everything in my power to make this happen...........

nap time now, enjoyed the conversation......

 

[tgbn]

People always try to get an edge :some bank on education and take huge loans and attend school for long years,hoping to hit big time when they graduate.Other make plans to study the stock market,or become professional gamblers.
If when i was 18 somebody had shown me how to build myself my house and given me a small loan ,i would be a happy man by now and would owe no one anything in my home.
Sometimes the simplest way is the better.

 

[Iceman]

SSI,
do not in anyway think I am second guessing you. If anything I am all for what you are doing. I said that because I lack the knowledge and am at the bootm of the barrel in that field than I am the guy that is paying the guys who are winning. A lightbulb went off in my head about a year from reading all this stuff on these type forums and with the leverage (key word) involved with sports than I think the bettor can play with a huge edge, just don't see it YET (key word) in the financial markets.

I want to learn anything I can to win at these kind of investments. So I am all ears and like to read your stuff. I just haven't been able to grasp how one has an edge in the financial markets, in a way it seems more like gambling to me but remember I am not at all an expert or even at a average level at that.

I maybe wrong but when you take a guy like Fish and what he is doing it is almost IMPOSSIBILE for him to have a losing year, I just haven't seen this kind of success story in the stock market, maybe I am not talking to the right guys.

Keep up the passion, it is the #1 by far reason someone succeeds in stuff we are doing. Getting out of bed and staying dedicated to this stuff everyday is what seperates the winners from the losers(IMO). I am in NO WAY 2nd guessing you or doubting you. I hope to one day get to your level at that. Keep up the great work!!!

 

[sean1]

This is such a stupid conversation.

These items are not geared to the same thing.

1. Bonds - 5-7% return. Stable.
2. Buy and hold stocks 10-15% return. Stable long term.
3. Commodities, day trading, derivatives. 25-200% return. Unstable.
4. Offshore wagering. 100-400% return. Unstable.
5. Real Estate speculating. Very damn good.


The stock market suits most investors. Go to work, make $50k/year. Put $10K in the market. Have a million to retire.

If you look at succesful hedge funds,they buy and hold in the market when they have TOO much money.

Funds would not pay commodity and derivative and currency traders millions of dollars if a 15% return was considered good. They pay these people millions of dollars to reach much higher returns.

Real estate is spectacular cause you can leverage - 3% down,mortgage, etc and you can rent. You used to be able to depreciate - now this is capped.

Bonds can be spectacular if you get banks to give you credit against the bonds... Instead of buying $100M of a bond, a hedge fund will buy $1B with the bonds as collateral. Now if they make .5% in a week,they really make 5%.

Derivatives are extremely leveraged.

Too bad you can't leverage gambling. If I ran a book, I'd offer significant margin. - If you had $5000 in 100 $50 bets, I'd let you bet another $4000...

I can not say gambling is more lucrative than real estate,derivatives, etc I dont know those markets as well. I can say you can start with a lot less money.

The negative to gambling is your return will likely go down if you get into 7 figures. You cant be gambling with $500M. But then you just start the next pinnacle.

There are lots of ways to make money. Buy and hold is not one of them unless you like the 2 bedroom house, 2 kids, a ford outfront....

Sean

 

[TheRightSide]

How can you imply there is no "stop loss" in sports. Unless you're dumb and make huge % of bankroll bets, the stop loss is of course there.

Santo that post didn't come out right. I am just tired of all these people that say how easy this shit is. While the newbies read this without knowing how Fish has done that well. They don't realize how he has built his BR. Fish didn't build his BR simply by picking TheRightSide. He has done it but doing many many hours of looking for lines to jump on and off of. He is very good at what he does. But how many of these people can do that. Also notice how Fish never says how he does this. He always says wow this is easy but yet he has never started a thread giving out the info needed to do it the way he did. I know the reason for this. He needs all us in order for him to make his moves. So it benefits him to have us squares around.

 

[sean1]

Fish,

My money is making 5% too! Citibank ecount.

It is sure stress free while I figure out the next move..

Will it be:

Locals?
Offshore in a year when things stabilize.
Real Estate
Some startup company.

Who knows.

I do know I am not comfortable with 90% of my worht offshore now! And it does no good to move. This does not add stability to the books.

Sean

 

[sean1]

Therightside, I have started threads telling people how to make 100% per year gambling. Most of them are over at Fezz's. I think Iceman has been a benificiary.

I do exactly what Fish does...Or pretty damn close. Unfortunately neither of us feel secure offshore with a lot of money anymore after years of not worrying.

Sean

 

[Eastex]

Made 21% on 200,000 in the stock market in 06. Lost 90% of 1000 gambling.
Guess where my money goes.

 

[TheRightSide]

Therightside, I have started threads telling people how to make 100% per year gambling. Most of them are over at Fezz's. I think Iceman has been a benificiary.

I do exactly what Fish does...Or pretty damn close. Unfortunately neither of us feel secure offshore with a lot of money anymore after years of not worrying.

Sean

I read all of your post. I feel you are on top of things. That includes more non gambling topics than anything. I am just trying to point out to the newbies that read how easy all this gambling thing is yet are not well imformed that Fish and some of the others rarelt take a side on a game. Most of the novices would not understand how that is done.

You are well respected poster by me. You know your shit.

TRS