Except I'm voting for John Keary for Prez!
not so fast ace-ace on prez election
most respectful of your nfl analysis, but before you end up with a mouthfull of noxious bush, kindly inform thyself by consulting http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
be aware that media analysis is marred by a failure to take account of a phenomenon well-known to all political pollsters, the “incumbent 50-percent rule.” An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job. http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694
anyway , i down on m. kerry at +185, +145, and again today at +150...i'm counting on the undecideds spliting 2/3 for kerry...
One analyst has concluded that since 1976, 86 percent of undecided voters have voted for the challenger candidates.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/11/point.spread/index.html
thus pa, ohio and fla should go to kerry and he only needs 2 of 3 to be the prez.
rgsesq
most respectful of your nfl analysis, but before you end up with a mouthfull of noxious bush, kindly inform thyself by consulting http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
be aware that media analysis is marred by a failure to take account of a phenomenon well-known to all political pollsters, the “incumbent 50-percent rule.” An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job. http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694
anyway , i down on m. kerry at +185, +145, and again today at +150...i'm counting on the undecideds spliting 2/3 for kerry...
One analyst has concluded that since 1976, 86 percent of undecided voters have voted for the challenger candidates.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/11/point.spread/index.html
thus pa, ohio and fla should go to kerry and he only needs 2 of 3 to be the prez.
rgsesq
on prez election, follow-up to previous post
<BIG>Friday, October 22, 2004 at 12:01AM EDT </BIG>
<!-- EndDate -->Predicted median with undecideds: <BIG>Kerry 307 EV, Bush 231 EV, K prob. 95%</BIG> </B></BIG>(probability map)
Median outcome, decided voters only:<BIG> <!-- BeginMedian -->Kerry 264 EV, Bush 274 EV <!-- EndMedian --></BIG>(probability map) (Trends to 10/12)
95% confidence interval, decided voters only:</B><BIG> <!-- BeginKerry95Percent -->+/-37 EV for each candidate <!-- EndKerry95Percent --></BIG>(Kerry >=270EV: <!-- BeginKerryProbability -->39%, n.s.<!-- EndKerryProbability -->)
Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation):<BIG> <!-- BeginKerrySwingIndex -->Bush leads Kerry by 0.3% <!-- EndKerrySwingIndex --></BIG>
<BIG>Friday, October 22, 2004 at 12:01AM EDT </BIG>
<!-- EndDate -->Predicted median with undecideds: <BIG>Kerry 307 EV, Bush 231 EV, K prob. 95%</BIG> </B></BIG>(probability map)
Median outcome, decided voters only:<BIG> <!-- BeginMedian -->Kerry 264 EV, Bush 274 EV <!-- EndMedian --></BIG>(probability map) (Trends to 10/12)
95% confidence interval, decided voters only:</B><BIG> <!-- BeginKerry95Percent -->+/-37 EV for each candidate <!-- EndKerry95Percent --></BIG>(Kerry >=270EV: <!-- BeginKerryProbability -->39%, n.s.<!-- EndKerryProbability -->)
Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation):<BIG> <!-- BeginKerrySwingIndex -->Bush leads Kerry by 0.3% <!-- EndKerrySwingIndex --></BIG>
