Insiders,
Thanks for the response.
I disagree, but this site isnt about trying to figure out who is correct, its about sharing information and ideas.
The 3 game winning streak is something I have heard from other gamblers...especially baseball/basketball players, since those are long seasons.
Shouldnt the opponents in those games be considered?
Before reading forums, fading was not part of my gambling. I studied stats and watched games to understand teams styles and after making "my line", if the bookmakers # was different, I bet the side with value.
This handicappign method is still 90% of my college football handicapping. However, with basketball I simply do not have time to study ALL the games, so I sometimes follow the strong cappers here, and sometimes fading games that seem too obvious that top cappers have not posted either side.
Eventhough I had access to samples of gamblers bets via locals and friends, it didnt factor into my selections.
Clearly, anybody fading would have to take into consideration whether or not to fade a game when they see Bucsfan, Ace, Rail, Pops, Chop, (many others to list) and the other proven winners are on the same side as the 50% or less bettors.
:drink:
Thanks for the response.
I disagree, but this site isnt about trying to figure out who is correct, its about sharing information and ideas.
The 3 game winning streak is something I have heard from other gamblers...especially baseball/basketball players, since those are long seasons.
Shouldnt the opponents in those games be considered?
Before reading forums, fading was not part of my gambling. I studied stats and watched games to understand teams styles and after making "my line", if the bookmakers # was different, I bet the side with value.
This handicappign method is still 90% of my college football handicapping. However, with basketball I simply do not have time to study ALL the games, so I sometimes follow the strong cappers here, and sometimes fading games that seem too obvious that top cappers have not posted either side.
Eventhough I had access to samples of gamblers bets via locals and friends, it didnt factor into my selections.
Clearly, anybody fading would have to take into consideration whether or not to fade a game when they see Bucsfan, Ace, Rail, Pops, Chop, (many others to list) and the other proven winners are on the same side as the 50% or less bettors.
:drink:
That is a loaded question as neither is better. The answer is to take action from either. Make them pay the vig and gain the house advantage. Just the premise of following or fading is a wrong way to think. Do your own homework, cap your own games, and if you are a career loser, fade yourself. But in the end, you are still being juiced and nibbled to death by the fees.
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Dawoofdaddy.
Well as i mentioned that i ONLY do this in baseball, the win, loss, streak starts at 3 for me and sometimes i catch a team that wins or looses many games in a row.
We will keep an eye on this starting real soon.
And if i was following a win or loss streak, it would matter Not to me who is on the other side of the play. Again this way is NOT for the faint of heart beause the press system also applies here as well.
Yes you Always loose the last bet an sometimes its a Monster! But at that point you have "locked up" lots of money before the rope breaks, and it will break sooner or laters.
Again we will watch this prop throughout the up comeing baseball season as its the Only one i do this in..
But for the First 2 weeks i will only be on the Doggies no matter who is laying wood on the other side as well.
Well as i mentioned that i ONLY do this in baseball, the win, loss, streak starts at 3 for me and sometimes i catch a team that wins or looses many games in a row.
We will keep an eye on this starting real soon.
And if i was following a win or loss streak, it would matter Not to me who is on the other side of the play. Again this way is NOT for the faint of heart beause the press system also applies here as well.
Yes you Always loose the last bet an sometimes its a Monster! But at that point you have "locked up" lots of money before the rope breaks, and it will break sooner or laters.
Again we will watch this prop throughout the up comeing baseball season as its the Only one i do this in..
But for the First 2 weeks i will only be on the Doggies no matter who is laying wood on the other side as well.
Insiders,
Do you apply your thoughts about streaks in reference to individual cappers?
If a rx proven winning capper is on a winning streak, would you press bets higher if you agreed or was neutral about the picks?
Similarly, if a person was losing daily, would you press while fading?
Do you apply your thoughts about streaks in reference to individual cappers?
If a rx proven winning capper is on a winning streak, would you press bets higher if you agreed or was neutral about the picks?
Similarly, if a person was losing daily, would you press while fading?
dawoofdaddy
I myself Dont apply this to any one person or capper. I myself Only look at the streak as it will continue, no matter who is pitching, or who is on the other side.
This system gets lots of Plus money when a team is on the road and it also gets lots of chalks that i Cant have at home as they will certainly be inflated. I now stop playing if the chalk is too high for the risk. But way back when i didnt stop playing as i would lay the -200 and think nothing of it. But after i lost a few of those i stopped that, right there.
About the press, after you win the 4th game naturally it will be for a standard unit of 1, and so will the 5th one. Now here on the 6th game i press to a "double" unit play. If the 5th game wins, i press .5 from there until the streak breaks.
Caught a Streak agsinst KC once that i got to the limit and got several collections before it broke. Dureing that streak sometimes i had to lay -200 which is a NO NO to begin with. After the First limit collection i was still at risk until the second game of the limit bet. Cant remember how many 5k collections i got there but it was several before the rope broke.
Biggest week i have ever had in the baseball, by far !!
You watch this over the course of time and it will "probably" be a winner!
I myself Dont apply this to any one person or capper. I myself Only look at the streak as it will continue, no matter who is pitching, or who is on the other side.
This system gets lots of Plus money when a team is on the road and it also gets lots of chalks that i Cant have at home as they will certainly be inflated. I now stop playing if the chalk is too high for the risk. But way back when i didnt stop playing as i would lay the -200 and think nothing of it. But after i lost a few of those i stopped that, right there.
About the press, after you win the 4th game naturally it will be for a standard unit of 1, and so will the 5th one. Now here on the 6th game i press to a "double" unit play. If the 5th game wins, i press .5 from there until the streak breaks.
Caught a Streak agsinst KC once that i got to the limit and got several collections before it broke. Dureing that streak sometimes i had to lay -200 which is a NO NO to begin with. After the First limit collection i was still at risk until the second game of the limit bet. Cant remember how many 5k collections i got there but it was several before the rope broke.
Biggest week i have ever had in the baseball, by far !!
You watch this over the course of time and it will "probably" be a winner!
Fishhead said:
Fish:
I believe that would be a correct assumption. Look at it this way. Imagine you are the bookmaker and always taking the action of a known 40% player and thus collecting approximately 60% of the time. Fading is essentially the same without the vig as you, the fader, are still paying the juice which a bookmaker normally receives. Compare that to trying to maintain your own plus percentage doing your own handicapping.
My sense is the reason most of us may not do this is due to the challenge, ego, pride to be successful on our own. Notice how the successful handicappers will earn the respect of many while the one that struggles will receive little or no attention, yet could be as valuable to the bankroll as the winner. If earning money is the main goal, then why not embrace the poster who can barely achieve 40% and shares his losing plays openly with the forums as well. The essence of this is not about the poster, but perhaps another alternative to earn.
Completely worthless to fade a guy that posts. Cappers doing bad are too unpredictable. They could change their methods at any time.
Only good fades are touts, becuase they don't care and they are'nt doing anything different. I still only play a tout fade if it's backed up by a decent/good capper on a hot streak that's on the other side.
Only good fades are touts, becuase they don't care and they are'nt doing anything different. I still only play a tout fade if it's backed up by a decent/good capper on a hot streak that's on the other side.
RobFunk said:
Rob:
I have to disagree. There are certain very well known posters that quietly post every day and get little attention nor seek it and yet lose on a consistent basis and even show their record and losses daily. They are very steady in what you can expect from them. They do no harm but one can earn from being on the opposite side of these posters.
Those same certain posters could just as likely go on a blind winning streak, getting closer to 50% just at the time you decide to fade. Like they say, even the blind hog finds the acorn occaisionally. How much would this posters opinion be counted towards a wager decision, and what percentage would be used from your own handicapping? What if your handicapping agreed with the poster you fade? Most posters stagger around 10% points of each other, and randomly work above and below the mean of 48%. No capper is as good as his last hot streak, or bad as his last losing streak. I believe following or fading are just not long term successful methods. The 3 consecutive game angle has a lot more upside, especially in football as there is normally a large adjustment after 3 straight. I would look for advantages in the number vs current form before I started considering fading/following.
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Frog:
First let me say it's great to see you back. You bring an enormous amount of knowledge to the forums and your words to Illini were both thoughtful and wise.
Now, to the subject at hand. We must keep in mind that there is a large portion of our membership that do not or cannot handicap there own games successfully in certain, if not all, sports and would rather follow someone. You know how difficult it is to be successful in this business as you are a professional and do this for a living which very few others can acclaim. It is to the followers that must make a decision whom to follow that are in a quandry. I have scanned the forums over the few years I have been a member and there are many more posters that hover around 40% then 60% to be sure. A follower could start each season fading one of these posters and do quite well. The follower needs to have no opinion on sports, but just play the opposite side. Other then the vig, is that not where the successful bookmaker makes his money?
The successful book makes his money on the vig. Not on winners vs. losers. The ones that rely on that are in for some rude awakenings. Sometimes players win. I have a local aquaintance, a local book for 20+ years. He finally tapped out this year during NFL. Right after Thanksgiving. In fact, he became a deadbeat book. If you want to see what happens to a fading book look no furthur than the Dunes saga. It all gets real hazy when you start jumping sports, some may excel at football, and stink at hoops. Then they might just be bad in spots. By the time you figure all of that out you are still at the mercy of their choice. I prefer having control of my own destiny, and deciding where to bet with my judgements applied. At best you could take another posters play, break it down and see where they are in regards to your thinking. To me the most important angle is not what another poster likes but why. Or if everyone likes the same side. Some people like you and sb have nice writeups to explain why. Sometimes additional info can be gleaned here. Again, I think time by a novice would be better spent learning how to cap, becoming self sufficient, and watching line movement and results, vs. studying another posters plays and results. The more time you look at other people the less benefit for improving your game. Just my 2 cents.
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Nothing makes me do anything, just needed to reboot and refresh. When I start slippin into overall negativity posts and going after innocent members I know a break is needed. Those who know me know I vanish for a month to many months sometimes. I am undecided on the bash, but much higher probability than last year with brand new polliwog. Uncommitted.
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
