This crash is pretty exciting, it the first time I'v had time to prepare for a crash, I now only own 3 stocks , UPS google and Apple, and moved by money into Trippel net leases. It will be interesting to see the impact of inflation on Corp earnings, and what value it creates, stocks are just overpriced right now.
The Senate on Tuesday passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, a $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's technological.
The Senate on Tuesday passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, a $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's technological.
definitely getting stretched. As a general rule (for me at least)good time to sell calls whne RSI is over 70 (keep in mind it can stay over 70 for awhile). Selling calls increases the yield on one's portfolio (be it individual stocks or etfs). Sold puts on CAT that should expire clean next friday, cool.... Sold puts recently on FXI, KWEB-- dont mind owning either but it will at at my price or or go (both at the 200 sma from their respective WEEKLY charts). China badly underperforming despite GDP 3X better than USA in qtr 1. This underperformance is largely govt policy related .
historically, when the SPY is greater than 10% for the first half of the year (which it is was this yr) there is a high probability of it being greater than 5% further for the second half. So a pullback would be cool, ...entry via bullish candle as always , can enter in tranches
historically, when the SPY is greater than 10% for the first half of the year (which it is was this yr) there is a high probability of it being greater than 5% further for the second half. So a pullback would be cool, ...entry via bullish candle as always , can enter in tranches
WASHINGTON—The U.S. could run out of room to keep paying the government’s bills some time during Congress’s August recess unless lawmakers raise or suspend the federal borrowing limit before then, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday.
"Quantitative easing by federal reserve results in surging stock prices and soaring real estate prices. Likely to continue for a year or two".
Good read. Interesting option NYT
[h=1]Only the Rich Could Love This Economic Recovery[/h]
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/12/opinion/covid-fed-qe-inequality.html
Good read. Interesting option NYT
[h=1]Only the Rich Could Love This Economic Recovery[/h]
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/12/opinion/covid-fed-qe-inequality.html
I personally am taking a huge chunk off tables come Jan 3…however and against what I’d normally say or do, I could start before 12/31 too and pay long term cap gains on 2021 vs waiting for better scenario 2022. The rub is if Mkt takes a huge dip (10-25%) as I expect in 2022 and it happens early like Jan 3, I’ll have pissed away a lot vs just grabbing Dec 2021.
This isn’t going to keep going and has to correct sooner than later given all data points.
Timed somewhat correct I can profit and then buy back in on major dip. Best case scenario.
Unfortunately history seems to be repeating in terms of current Admin…think or read up on Jimmy Carter years, mid 70s to late. Brutal time for most and I suspect this is as bad and probably worse. IMHO
Good luck to all.
This isn’t going to keep going and has to correct sooner than later given all data points.
Timed somewhat correct I can profit and then buy back in on major dip. Best case scenario.
Unfortunately history seems to be repeating in terms of current Admin…think or read up on Jimmy Carter years, mid 70s to late. Brutal time for most and I suspect this is as bad and probably worse. IMHO
Good luck to all.
A copy/paste…sounds awfully like current events, No?
Carter failed to capitalize on his early successes, form alliances with Congress and connect with the American people. He also failed to understand how government operated and the importance of compromise. Few presidents have started their term under such favorable political conditions as Carter. With Democrat majorities in both houses, he fulfilled most of his campaign promises within a few months of taking office.
Despite early successes, Carter failed to form alliances with Congressional leaders and secure passage of key legislation. He overlooked high-ranking party members and filled his cabinet with political outsiders who failed to develop working relationships with legislators. He further alienated Congressional leaders by refusing to compromise his ideals or negotiate differences. He refused to engage in “back-door” deals and vetoed bills that he considered wasteful spending. Congress reacted by gutting his tax plans, overriding vetoes and blocking energy initiatives and welfare reform plans.
Carter also failed to translate his early successes into support from the American people, often appearing smug and condescending when he spoke, even to supporters. When he delivered his “malaise” speech during the energy crisis of 1979, he seemed to be scolding the public and blaming them for the crisis rather than proposing solutions or espousing policy. Asking Americans to drive slower, set thermostats lower and do without Christmas lights did little to inspire confidence. After foreign policy failures such as the prolonged Iranian hostage crisis and botched rescue attempt, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the boycott of the 1980 Olympic Games, many Americans saw their government as weak, ineffectual and no longer commanding respect.
Carter failed to capitalize on his early successes, form alliances with Congress and connect with the American people. He also failed to understand how government operated and the importance of compromise. Few presidents have started their term under such favorable political conditions as Carter. With Democrat majorities in both houses, he fulfilled most of his campaign promises within a few months of taking office.
Despite early successes, Carter failed to form alliances with Congressional leaders and secure passage of key legislation. He overlooked high-ranking party members and filled his cabinet with political outsiders who failed to develop working relationships with legislators. He further alienated Congressional leaders by refusing to compromise his ideals or negotiate differences. He refused to engage in “back-door” deals and vetoed bills that he considered wasteful spending. Congress reacted by gutting his tax plans, overriding vetoes and blocking energy initiatives and welfare reform plans.
Carter also failed to translate his early successes into support from the American people, often appearing smug and condescending when he spoke, even to supporters. When he delivered his “malaise” speech during the energy crisis of 1979, he seemed to be scolding the public and blaming them for the crisis rather than proposing solutions or espousing policy. Asking Americans to drive slower, set thermostats lower and do without Christmas lights did little to inspire confidence. After foreign policy failures such as the prolonged Iranian hostage crisis and botched rescue attempt, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the boycott of the 1980 Olympic Games, many Americans saw their government as weak, ineffectual and no longer commanding respect.
Agree...so you don't think MKT corrects near future? I think it runs up to end of year but after that, IMO it's a matter of time when it does correct or regress significantly. To some degree I'm trying to time that but given my portfolio and comfort level doesn't really matter but I'd rather have more than less. One angle is like I said pulling down and awaiting dip to buy back in? If it doesn't happen soon enough, again all I've done is missed an uptick.
Bozzie, I'm assuming that's what your commenting on...then again, maybe you are thinking the Carter/Biden economies completely different??? Again that's a true statement, but I'd ask isn't it eerie the similarities in what I posted to how Biden is acting now? Apples to Apples Carter and Biden...
Respect your opinions and posts!
I can see the line between Joe and Jimmy..I've thought the same actually.
Carter had the inflation and slow growth .... Stagflation but it was a different world economy wise.
This economy is about to fire up in a big way IMO..I'm not saying the market won't fall some but I think decent growth is possible coming up here....Watch entertainment and travel over the next few quarters..it'll be off the chain good.
plus some of the supply chain issues will flatten out...I'm an optimist so take this with some salt.
have a good one buddy!
Carter had the inflation and slow growth .... Stagflation but it was a different world economy wise.
This economy is about to fire up in a big way IMO..I'm not saying the market won't fall some but I think decent growth is possible coming up here....Watch entertainment and travel over the next few quarters..it'll be off the chain good.
plus some of the supply chain issues will flatten out...I'm an optimist so take this with some salt.
have a good one buddy!
We all know timing the market is a fools errand. I'm that fool. I've been conservative in my retirement portfolio, going 30% market/70% safe. I've recently changed that to 55% market/45% safe. I'm 51 years old and have plenty of time to recover (as I don't intend to use any of my Roth, TSP/401k money ever, except for minimum distributions when I reach 72+, I plan to leave that money to my wife who is 10 years younger than me). Anyhow, my non-retirement portfolio is still pretty aggressive and so is my Roth IRA. I worry about it, but had my TSP been invested 80/20 or even 70/30 I would have made a shit-ton more this year than I will end up with.
But....a market crash does scare me. If it happens, I'll buy as much as I can afford. I'm in the best financial position of my life right now, so I will take full advantage of discount buying (especially if the S&P 500 tanks). I also want to jump on a couple of rental properties if there's a tanking in RE.
But....a market crash does scare me. If it happens, I'll buy as much as I can afford. I'm in the best financial position of my life right now, so I will take full advantage of discount buying (especially if the S&P 500 tanks). I also want to jump on a couple of rental properties if there's a tanking in RE.
I think alot of people have that in mind.
Many will sell high in December as they have long term capital losses so they can make a nice profit and not pay any taxes
Others want to wait until January and take 15 months to pay off their taxes instead of 3.5 months.
I think the market is going to take a huge dump in January and then will recover.
The best move may to be to sell in January, hold onto cash for at least 30 days (avoid wash sales), and then rebuy
Great input and valuable insight, Thx Bozzie, Coach & Knight. . Coach, like you we are old as dirt…haha. Joking aside, I’ve been super aggressive for some time. And have been fortunate to hit the FAANGs pretty early so the upside has allowed for early early retirement and a coasting per se into who knows what the world provides near future. As I said I want to protect that as much as possible since I’m always looking for more and more…I’m an eternal optimist also and given my aggressiveness that’s probably why I’ve successfully seen returns that to date are obscene. Biggest positive or fortune was learning of compounding and it takes money to make money. So any small or large % UP can be quite significant in terms of $$$. Flip side also works but the marathon roller coaster to date most know has been a 20 yr BULL ride. My dabbling a bit with crypto has also been fruitful. But again paper profits like much of portfolio till we decide to diversify accordingly.
Which Knight I’m glad to see I’m not alone. We seem to be thinking alike.
I’d love to let it ride as is…but my tech heavy port probably overdue for tweaks…again hard to pull trigger especially like today seeing my AMZN sniff $100/ uptick ?
Bozzie, I believe you are spot on. It sure seems like a pop coming given pent up demand. i wonder though if demand can be met…and does travel and Ent spike if we suddenly have a new virus or variant or such. Sure seems like there’s more of a demand to control all vs freeing up small business and such and getting majority back to work. So many issues that seem to block what can happen.
Hoping for best always for ALL
Which Knight I’m glad to see I’m not alone. We seem to be thinking alike.
I’d love to let it ride as is…but my tech heavy port probably overdue for tweaks…again hard to pull trigger especially like today seeing my AMZN sniff $100/ uptick ?
Bozzie, I believe you are spot on. It sure seems like a pop coming given pent up demand. i wonder though if demand can be met…and does travel and Ent spike if we suddenly have a new virus or variant or such. Sure seems like there’s more of a demand to control all vs freeing up small business and such and getting majority back to work. So many issues that seem to block what can happen.
Hoping for best always for ALL
I just love the history of valuations.
First we had price to earnings. When the market didnt justify that, we moved on to price to sales.
Now that in many cases that is not even justified, we just make shit up.
Like Rivian... 140 billion market cap??? For a company that doesnt even have sales yet??? Yet the cap is about Ford + GM COMBINED!!!
People want the Fed to stop printing... but I dont think they realize what that will mean, really... They think their portfolios look nice because they are brilliant stock pickers...
'when the liquidity stops, the speculation stops'
First we had price to earnings. When the market didnt justify that, we moved on to price to sales.
Now that in many cases that is not even justified, we just make shit up.
Like Rivian... 140 billion market cap??? For a company that doesnt even have sales yet??? Yet the cap is about Ford + GM COMBINED!!!
People want the Fed to stop printing... but I dont think they realize what that will mean, really... They think their portfolios look nice because they are brilliant stock pickers...
'when the liquidity stops, the speculation stops'
