When Betting Money Line Sports, what should be the "Cut-Off" ?

[shdw01]

Thank you for this thread. ..I usually stop at around -145 but I have forgotten this and have been taking it up the ass lately.

Fwiw I do agree with jc here...if a -250 is being offered by your buddy at -160, why not take it? But like someone else said, when it goes above your limit then start looking elsewhere. the reason for me is because if I think a -175 should be -250, and im wrong, that mistake will cost a lot more than one within my limit

 

[KennyB]

Betallsports is right. If you parlay two money lines and you lose, you lose your $100, not the big 3 or 4 to 1 that you would have laid otherwise. I am very successful parlaying money lines and I won't be the money line straight up.

 

[halekulani]

if you're betting over -150, esp for baseball, you're just being lazy and not looking hard enough or being patient enough for better value imo

 

[FairWarning]

Where there is no advantage is the only answer.

 

[JustinCruise]

Where there is no advantage is the only answer.

+1

 

[CHOPTALK]

There is no right answer here. If you shackle yourself by saying you have a specific cutoff you will miss out on some value.


If a team is -170 but you believe they should be -220 but you're cutoff is -150 you are missing an opportunity.

.

Wow. Jc with another smart post. He's on a roll folks

 

[CHOPTALK]

If there was a line on "Will the New Orleans saints win at least 1 game in2014 -2000
Are some of you saying no I'm not going to bet that because it's too much juice?

Its all about the value.
Sometimes there is no value in a +100000 bet.

 

[slapshot]

So if you have -150 cut off on favs

What is your cut off on dogs


Seen a lot of money lost playing value dogs hno: they can dig a hole also their is no value in a loser I hear I don't think they can win but shit it's +280

Well it was worth a shot hno:

 

[JDeuce]

If there was a line on "Will the New Orleans saints win at least 1 game in2014 -2000
Are some of you saying no I'm not going to bet that because it's too much juice?

Its all about the value.
Sometimes there is no value in a +100000 bet.

This.

There are no "rules" to finding value. If it's there, take it. Some of you are overthinking this.

There may be times where -200 or more actually represents value. I don't play lines that big very often...but if I'm going to lay that kind of juice, I better have a pretty damn good reason to do so.

Case in point yesterday when I played Croatia 2H vs. Cameroon yesterday.The line was -200, but I thought there was maybe a 1 in 10 chance Croatia didn't come through. Cameroon went down a man before halftime, their players were bitching among themselves, they were showing signs of packing it in, they had problems with their football federation before this tournament even began, Croatia needed to win by multiple goals to improve their differential, etc etc etc. Basically, all the stars aligned...and it worked out, as the Croats won the 2H 3-0 and the game 4-0. It was good value...line would have had to have been much higher to scare me away.

 

[pocketrockets]

Getting reduced juice is huge when managing variance. Most ML's are 10( when reduced) or 20 cents only up to a certain point. People don't realize that when you play the big favs and dogs you are paying more juice and it will kill you faster than reduced juice. Most lines that are -300 will be +250 on the other side, thats 50 cents of vig! And the higher you go the more vig they put into the lines. Generally it's a bad idea.

These 2 members are spot on!! I personally don't bet MLB... don't like it, don't watch it for the most part and don't think I know much about it. So for me my usual cutoff is -125. More than that, I won't lay. As far as NFL or NBA moneylines I seldom play them straight unless they meet the criteria, are dogs, or "locks"... but If anything, I consider locks maybe 4 or 5 games A YEAR on games I watch (NFL and european soccer).

Bottom line is what matters the most is picking the winners, not the line with the best value... and getting the right line is OBVIOUSLY going to profit you more when you win and make you loss less when you lose, so it definitely helps, but is not the breaking point of being a loser or a winner. Too many factors in sportbetting, if there was one single magic trick, we would all know it or apply ourselves to know and there would be no losers.

 

[pocketrockets]

You are not avoiding a -400 price by parlaying it with another -400. You are actually betting that line twice. One should not think they are doing so by parlaying. What one is actually doing with a 100 dollar parlay is risking 100 to win 25, then (providing it wins) risking 125 to win 36. One should not falsely believe they are avoiding high prices by parlaying. In actuality, they are doing it multiple times.

This.

There are no "rules" to finding value. If it's there, take it. Some of you are overthinking this.

There may be times where -200 or more actually represents value. I don't play lines that big very often...but if I'm going to lay that kind of juice, I better have a pretty damn good reason to do so.

Case in point yesterday when I played Croatia 2H vs. Cameroon yesterday.The line was -200, but I thought there was maybe a 1 in 10 chance Croatia didn't come through. Cameroon went down a man before halftime, their players were bitching among themselves, they were showing signs of packing it in, they had problems with their football federation before this tournament even began, Croatia needed to win by multiple goals to improve their differential, etc etc etc. Basically, all the stars aligned...and it worked out, as the Croats won the 2H 3-0 and the game 4-0. It was good value...line would have had to have been much higher to scare me away.

Congrats on your Croatia win, it was a fuckin good play!

Pretty much agree, if you lay that kind of juice, there be better be a good reason!