Why does Buffalo have to score 27? The strength is their D.
Exactly my opinion: GB on the road has scored 16@SEA, 7@DET, 38@CHI, 27@MIA, 23@NO and 24@MIN. Yes, they looked way better lately, but all those games were at home. In those 6 road games they are just 3-3 with a last second win @MIA and barely beating MIN by 3, only blowing out a dysfunctional Bears team. I would also rate Buffalos defense way better than NO, at least slightly above Miami & Minnesota, especially when it comes to their defensive line and QB pressure.
They also held Manning & the Broncos to just 24 @Denver last week. Yes, they weren't at full strength with D.Thomas probably being limited by his ankle injury and J.Thomas being out, but still that came against a team that had scored 39, 35, 42 and 41 in their home games before vs very decent defenses of MIA, SD, SF & ARI. Plus Buffalo has kept pretty much every single game at least a one possession game since Orton took over and MIN, KC, NYJ & CLE
scored 16, 17, 3 and 10 points in BUFs last 4 home games. GB is way better offensively, but I'd still expect them to be held in the low to mid 20s, somewhere around 23-26pts. At the same time GB has held almost nobody below 20pts if you throw out the Bears & Panthers, two teams who were completely derailed at the time. If you only look at their road games, a mediocre at best Vikes offense scored 21, the overrated Saints offense scored 44, a decent MIA offense scored 24.
In the end imo it will come down to turnovers: If Orton manages to not turn it over, Buffalo should keep this one close thanks to good special teams. Also wouldn't be surprised if GB gets into several 3rd and long situation with Lacy probably not being 100% and their offensive line committing some false starts/holding since they haven't played such a strong front 7 in quite some time and also hadn't to deal with the noise level of a road game in a tough environment for a couple of weeks.