What was the Massey Rating system?

[Serbone]

Uhhh..We had OU/Army this year and saw how it ended.....

Am I missing something???? This is ATS right??

I understand what you are saying.
What I am saying is despite the rankings I’d rather have the 11 kids on OK’s defense than the 11 on Army’s.

 

[tar_heel_in_sc]

Many thanks for posting that Biz, great thread!

 

[tkim11]

We as seasoned bettors need to stop overthinking it. This is as simple as it gets. Pick the team with a better defensive ranking. Then go handle your errands.

 

[gander1]

Massey Ratings

I seem to recall that using the Massey Ratings worked best in the "early" bowl games versus the marquee "later" bowl match-ups. I'm wondering if the last few year's ATS data could be broken up between the first 20 bowl games and the second 20 bowl games. Might make for interesting results.

2015: 26-14
2016: 24-16
2017: 30-10
2018: 5-0

I'll check a few more years when I have the energy.

 

[Biz]

I seem to recall that using the Massey Ratings worked best in the "early" bowl games versus the marquee "later" bowl match-ups. I'm wondering if the last few year's ATS data could be broken up between the first 20 bowl games and the second 20 bowl games. Might make for interesting results.

Someone else is going to have to dig thru this again if you want subsets.

 

[rolltide]

Someone else is going to have to dig thru this again if you want subsets.

last year started off 17-2 ATS and finished 13-8. i remember there was an 0-4 day in there late DEC

 

[Serbone]

We as seasoned bettors need to stop overthinking it. This is as simple as it gets. Pick the team with a better defensive ranking. Then go handle your errands.

Yes except if you took Northern Illinois:
you break the rule: never take a MAC bowl team unless you are getting a boat load of points, then, maybe
NI is a cold weather team, traveled 1000 miles into the heat
NI is an artificial turf team in and artificial turn league, this game was on natural thick high grass
NI had no fan support, UAB fans could make the long drive and many did
NI D is based on stopping the run, and pressuring the QB, they could not pressure the QB and were outmatched in the defensive backfield
But NI has a 40 Massey D rating , UAB only 52.

 

[TimmyRules]

Serbone-any other strong disagreements to consider in the first 20 or so

 

[Serbone]

Serbone-any other strong disagreements to consider in the first 20 or so

Next two, I am going with "it", SD St and Marshall, for defense but also other reasons, I am already down, might put more on SD St. I see games that I will probably go against Massey, but waiting to see how things develop.

Overall you have to stay away from the MAC, look at all conference trends (eg. last few yrs, go against Pac 12), look at key injuries, SOS, geography, turf, coaching changes, teams that won their conference championship game / teams that lost their conference championship game, and weather.

I cannot go by the Massey approach alone though it is 5-1 so far.

GL!

 

[exploited17]

Only thing that concerns me is SD St has lost three in a row. Considering bowl games...maybe that is a good thing? Who knows. I was actually impressed by Ohio. Watched plenty of their games. The problem is.....I would be comparing them to other MAC teams. Haven't watched much SD St. Had some impressive wins but faded. Are they more the team at the end of the year? Will it matter? Are they the team more motivated and more willing to play hard?

 

[tnvolfan]

Only thing that concerns me is SD St has lost three in a row. Considering bowl games...maybe that is a good thing? Who knows. I was actually impressed by Ohio. Watched plenty of their games. The problem is.....I would be comparing them to other MAC teams. Haven't watched much SD St. Had some impressive wins but faded. Are they more the team at the end of the year? Will it matter? Are they the team more motivated and more willing to play hard?

ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (7-5, 4-4 MWC): The Aztecs haven't scored more than 31 points in a game this season and hit the 30-point mark twice while ranking 109th nationally in total offense with an average of 354 yards per game. A big reason for that is that starting quarterback Christian Chapman (50-of-87, 774 yards, four touchdowns) missed six games with an MCL injury suffered in the second game of the season in a 28-14 victory over Sacramento State while star running back Juwan Washington (870 yards and 10 TDs on 180 carries) missed four games with a broken clavicle suffered in a 23-20 overtime win over Eastern Michigan. Both are back now with Washington rushing for 158 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries in the season-ending overtime loss to Hawaii while Chapman and has split time with junior Ryan Agnew, who has completed 104-of-199 passes for 1,525 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.

 

[Serbone]

Only thing that concerns me is SD St has lost three in a row. Considering bowl games...maybe that is a good thing? Who knows. I was actually impressed by Ohio. Watched plenty of their games. The problem is.....I would be comparing them to other MAC teams. Haven't watched much SD St. Had some impressive wins but faded. Are they more the team at the end of the year? Will it matter? Are they the team more motivated and more willing to play hard?

Agree that there is concern with the last three, last three SD St:

• stunk and lost to UNVL by 3
• hung tough at Fresno State, leading 14-10 at half, before losing 23-14, out gained by 100 yds, that was their big game
• lost at Hawaii, meaningless game on the island 31-30, it happens out there & Hawaii was very very very motivated

Earlier in the year they beat AZ St and Boise, I look for them to jell again with their healthy RB and QB, also I read a long statement from SD St coach who was very candid that they need to reassess everything with the program, WE need to do better, HE needed to do better, blah blah but in this case I believe him and it tells me they are focused to win this game and get back to where they used to be.

I like MWC over MAC, SD St SOS is superior, IMO Ohio is well coached and solid but are used to running the ball successfully in the lil MAC and will not be able to do so. The game is on natural grass and Ohio is used to playing defense on artificial, so their D will not be as quick and as we saw with NI last night, they will struggle on D, whereas SD St is acclaimated to natural grass... easier to block all game, especially 2nd half when the front 7 is tired. It matters.

It might be a high scoring game, bowls on NT seem to always go over, and the SD St offense which has been below par will finally get going after their defense, which is top notch, keeps getting the ball for them.

MWC vs MAC!

We shall see!

GL!

 

[hanabata]

They didn't play in Hawaii, Hawaii won at San Diego State

 

[exploited17]

8-2 ats

 

[Biz]

[font=&quot]date[/font]​	[font=&quot]team[/font]​	[font=&quot]def[/font]​	[font=&quot]w/l[/font]​	[font=&quot]record[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/15[/font]​	[font=&quot]north texas[/font]​	[font=&quot]95[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]1-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]utah st[/font]​	[font=&quot]17[/font]​
	[font=&quot]tulane[/font]​	[font=&quot]59[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]2-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ul lafayette[/font]​	[font=&quot]109[/font]​
	[font=&quot]arizona st[/font]​	[font=&quot]57[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]3-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]fresno st[/font]​	[font=&quot]9[/font]​
	[font=&quot]e michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]56[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]4-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ga southern[/font]​	[font=&quot]64[/font]​
	[font=&quot]mid tenn st[/font]​	[font=&quot]70[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]app st[/font]​	[font=&quot]63[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/18[/font]​	[font=&quot]niu[/font]​	[font=&quot]40[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-1[/font]​
	[font=&quot]uab[/font]​	[font=&quot]52[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/19[/font]​	[font=&quot]ohio[/font]​	[font=&quot]92[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]san diego st[/font]​	[font=&quot]39[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/20[/font]​	[font=&quot]marshall [/font]​	[font=&quot]55[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]6-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]south florida[/font]​	[font=&quot]88[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/21[/font]​	[font=&quot]fiu[/font]​	[font=&quot]96[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]7-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]toledo[/font]​	[font=&quot]107[/font]​
	[font=&quot]byu[/font]​	[font=&quot]30[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]8-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]w michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]105[/font]​

 

[Biz]

[font=&quot]date[/font]​	[font=&quot]team[/font]​	[font=&quot]def[/font]​	[font=&quot]w/l[/font]​	[font=&quot]record[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/15[/font]​	[font=&quot]north texas[/font]​	[font=&quot]95[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]1-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]utah st[/font]​	[font=&quot]17[/font]​
	[font=&quot]tulane[/font]​	[font=&quot]59[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]2-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ul lafayette[/font]​	[font=&quot]109[/font]​
	[font=&quot]arizona st[/font]​	[font=&quot]57[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]3-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]fresno st[/font]​	[font=&quot]9[/font]​
	[font=&quot]e michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]56[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]4-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ga southern[/font]​	[font=&quot]64[/font]​
	[font=&quot]mid tenn st[/font]​	[font=&quot]70[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]app st[/font]​	[font=&quot]63[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/18[/font]​	[font=&quot]niu[/font]​	[font=&quot]40[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-1[/font]​
	[font=&quot]uab[/font]​	[font=&quot]52[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/19[/font]​	[font=&quot]ohio[/font]​	[font=&quot]92[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]san diego st[/font]​	[font=&quot]39[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/20[/font]​	[font=&quot]marshall [/font]​	[font=&quot]55[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]6-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]south florida[/font]​	[font=&quot]88[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/21[/font]​	[font=&quot]fiu[/font]​	[font=&quot]96[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]7-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]toledo[/font]​	[font=&quot]107[/font]​
	[font=&quot]byu[/font]​	[font=&quot]30[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]8-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]w michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]105[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/22[/font]​	[font=&quot]wake forest[/font]​	[font=&quot]73[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]9-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]memphis[/font]​	[font=&quot]100[/font]​
	[font=&quot]houston[/font]​	[font=&quot]117[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]10-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]army[/font]​	[font=&quot]22[/font]​

 

[Biz]

[font=&quot]date[/font]​	[font=&quot]team[/font]​	[font=&quot]def[/font]​	[font=&quot]w/l[/font]​	[font=&quot]record[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/15[/font]​	[font=&quot]north texas[/font]​	[font=&quot]95[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]1-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]utah st[/font]​	[font=&quot]17[/font]​
	[font=&quot]tulane[/font]​	[font=&quot]59[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]2-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ul lafayette[/font]​	[font=&quot]109[/font]​
	[font=&quot]arizona st[/font]​	[font=&quot]57[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]3-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]fresno st[/font]​	[font=&quot]9[/font]​
	[font=&quot]e michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]56[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]4-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]ga southern[/font]​	[font=&quot]64[/font]​
	[font=&quot]mid tenn st[/font]​	[font=&quot]70[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-0[/font]​
	[font=&quot]app st[/font]​	[font=&quot]63[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/18[/font]​	[font=&quot]niu[/font]​	[font=&quot]40[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-1[/font]​
	[font=&quot]uab[/font]​	[font=&quot]52[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/19[/font]​	[font=&quot]ohio[/font]​	[font=&quot]92[/font]​	[font=&quot]l[/font]​	[font=&quot]5-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]san diego st[/font]​	[font=&quot]39[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/20[/font]​	[font=&quot]marshall [/font]​	[font=&quot]55[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]6-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]south florida[/font]​	[font=&quot]88[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/21[/font]​	[font=&quot]fiu[/font]​	[font=&quot]96[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]7-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]toledo[/font]​	[font=&quot]107[/font]​
	[font=&quot]byu[/font]​	[font=&quot]30[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]8-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]w michigan[/font]​	[font=&quot]105[/font]​
[font=&quot]12/22[/font]​	[font=&quot]wake forest[/font]​	[font=&quot]73[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]9-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]memphis[/font]​	[font=&quot]100[/font]​
	[font=&quot]houston[/font]​	[font=&quot]117[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]10-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]army[/font]​	[font=&quot]22[/font]​
	[font=&quot]buffalo[/font]​	[font=&quot]75[/font]​	[font=&quot]w[/font]​	[font=&quot]11-2[/font]​
	[font=&quot]troy[/font]​	[font=&quot]48[/font]​

 

[rolltide]

you know this has been killing it when serbone has been MIA from telling you why should shouldn't have bet the losing team 2 hours after the game is over

 

[exploited17]

12-2 bitches bwahahaha

 

[PiefaceJCS]

This Massey system is pre New Year's Day. Having followed it last year, these were my results.
Favorites with better defense went 15-4 ats
Dogs with better defense went 11-1 ats