What Kind of Liability to the Books have on ATL Future Bets (and could this impact the line)?

[bigwang]

so based on your logic, if the number on atl starts at 100/1 and drops down to 25/1 before week 8 it is because people aren't betting them? not sure if you understand simple economics.



what you said makes no sense and is the opposite of what i said, a movement of 50/1 out to 100/1 before the season is due to ONE reason--lack of bets at the 50's....once the season starts books will adjust prices even before money rolls in, for example you're not going to offer 66/1 if a team is say 4w 1L, when futures prices drop after a weekend's games it has nothing to do with $ they've just taken on that team its about pricing them correctly in your book based on how you assess their chances

Okay. But the number started at 100/1 and dropped to 50 before wk 2. It never went back up. So your logic is sound in some scenarios, but not this particular one.


Great info mickj but I wouldn't trust info provided by cg technology. They are as crooked as they come.

 

[mickj]

Great info mickj but I wouldn't trust info provided by cg technology. They are as crooked as they come.

All the books said it.

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

Okay. But the number started at 100/1 and dropped to 50 before wk 2. It never went back up. So your logic is sound in some scenarios, but not this particular one.


Great info mickj but I wouldn't trust info provided by cg technology. They are as crooked as they come.

The only way I can make this simpler for you is by drawing pictures with crayons on butchers paper! Movement on futures before the season is based on money for a team or lack thereof....once the season starts books adjust their odds each week even without taking large bets they adjust based on the results, Oakland went from 12s to 33s the week carr got hurt--not because of bets on other teams, so Atl gradually shortening from 100/1 in is based on them winning and books adjusting where they see their chances, it went from 100 to 50 after they won week two not because of some flood of money Heck they may have taken a few small bets but books change futures odds every week before people even get a chance to bet the odds they were prior to that week's games

 

[NorthernStar]

Futures bets are a in a pool of their own and big money makers. Has zero impact on the line. The fact that they put out a line of 3 is surprising to me, I would put 3.5 or 2.5 ..... why would you want to take a bunch of action on 3 and have New England win by 3 and you have made zero dollars on the spread bets.

 

[chonce]

Futures bets are a in a pool of their own and big money makers. Has zero impact on the line. The fact that they put out a line of 3 is surprising to me, I would put 3.5 or 2.5 ..... why would you want to take a bunch of action on 3 and have New England win by 3 and you have made zero dollars on the spread bets.

In this equation they also lose some teasers as well. The best result for Vegas, I think, would be ATL winning by 10 but the under cashing. But, the Orleans bookmaker has said the 2-way action in terms of money is good, and yes, from what I have learned on this thread 1) the future bets wouldn't factor in due to volume on straight bets and 2) the whole premise of the question was based on flawed info; it was wrongly reported by radio hosts (who conceded their error) that the Falcons were heavility bet on in futures.