What is the value of a teaser?

[ronaldn]

beware of small samples...nuances appear which have little to do with logic/what you can expect over the long run...I bascally propose straight wagers as opposed to the teasers...ESPECIALLY in college, where the emotions run so high that deviations from the norm are greater, despite the lower scoring...

Thanks Dolphin. I am well aware of the aberrations that can occur with small sample sizes. In my original post I made referrence to the small sample size and said no conclusions should be drawn until at least two full seasons of play. I do think that the percentage increase figure will hold up as that was based on 800+ games. I'm just not sure that picking winners will.

 

[ronaldn]

Some more stats.

Average margin of victory for home team pointspreads of:

pk -7.25
-1 .06252 Sure hasnt paid to bet on pk or -1 home teams.
-1.5 4.916
-2 4.19
-2.5 -2.1 an aberration?
-3 5.17
-3.5 2.81
-4 2.81
-7 5.789
-10 12.333
-12 11.56
-14 11.14

 

[SHACK]

Ronald -


Nice writeup. I use Millennium only for teasers / you get 6 points on two teamers at -120. I never tease totals. I usually tease favorites that are between 6-8 1.2, preferring the 6.5 - 8 lines.

 

[ronaldn]

Ronald -


Nice writeup. I use Millennium only for teasers / you get 6 points on two teamers at -120. I never tease totals. I usually tease favorites that are between 6-8 1.2, preferring the 6.5 - 8 lines.

Shack, thanks for the input. I will keep those points in mind and maybe do a little research on them. Thanks again.
Ron
Ps, Can you get 5 pts at Millennium at even odds? I never play totals either.

 

[dolphin]

I'll second that...NEVER tease basketball totals...and I know people who use NFL totals, but I'm skeptical...there, I'm sure running through 34-38 would be important, maybe 37-41.

 

[ronaldn]

Ronald -


Nice writeup. I use Millennium only for teasers / you get 6 points on two teamers at -120. I never tease totals. I usually tease favorites that are between 6-8 1.2, preferring the 6.5 - 8 lines.

Shack, I have some figures for you from the program.

Home teams ATS 407 - 410
Home team 4.5 tease 547 - 282 .6598%
Road team 4.5 tease 588 - 258. .6950 Teasing the Rd tm was better.

Home 6 pt tease 585 - 238 .7108%
Road 6 pt tease 628 - 218 .7423

If home team is a 6 to 8 pt fav
Home 6 pt tease 99 - 39 .717
Road 6 pt tease 109 - 31 .7786

At - 120 the win% necessary to break even is .5454
Since you need 2 winners in a teaser then if you 6 pt teased two 6 to 8 pt favs .717 x .717 = .514 which is under the .5454 needed to break even.
If teased the road team in that situation....7786 x .7786 = .6062 that would be a winner but the road team being better to tease may just be a statistical aberration in this years results.

 

[Two-Niner]

Some other requests if you guys want to..


How about some numbers to determine what % of games end with a 1 pt victory 2 pt victory, 3,5, 7 etc. Maybe help identify some somewhat key numbers.


Also could you do my totals question above about games ending up inside 5 pts of the total only on games ending in 1/2 pt's to cut out the pushes.

And is there anything to suggest that games are likely to go over the total or under the total by a substantial number of points given the spread. Say for a total 210 is there any data to suggest the game is more likely to end up above 216 than below 204? Same on the opposite end of the spectrum say a total of 180. Is the game more likely to be off by 5 or 6 in one direction?

 

[ronaldn]

Some other requests if you guys want to..


How about some numbers to determine what % of games end with a 1 pt victory 2 pt victory, 3,5, 7 etc. Maybe help identify some somewhat key numbers.


Also could you do my totals question above about games ending up inside 5 pts of the total only on games ending in 1/2 pt's to cut out the pushes.

And is there anything to suggest that games are likely to go over the total or under the total by a substantial number of points given the spread. Say for a total 210 is there any data to suggest the game is more likely to end up above 216 than below 204? Same on the opposite end of the spectrum say a total of 180. Is the game more likely to be off by 5 or 6 in one direction?

Two-Niner, I can get the figures for the margin of victory fairly easily. I assume you mean SU but I could also do it ATS. It will just take me a little while to program it.
I dont quite understand your second question. Please clarify.
Your 3rd request I think may be answered by where the Mean (not the average) falls in relation to the line. I will pick out a few lines above and below the average to see if there is any bias. This is quite a bit of work so I dont want to do too many of them unless they show some real promise. If this doesnt make sense please let me know asap. LOL.
Thanks for your interest.
Ron

 

[Two-Niner]

Thanks for the willingness to look this stuff up.

First one-Yeah, just wanted to look at frequency of winning margin straight up. Could be valuable with sights offering different lines w/ varying juice on the wager.

Don't worry about the 2nd one it's academic, the more I think about the third one also it's just going to turn out to show no bias since the normal O/U records for various lines are right at 50-50. I don't see one side being more likely to cover by 6 or so. So don't worry about that one either unless you want to.

Thanks

 

[ronaldn]

Thanks for the willingness to look this stuff up.

First one-Yeah, just wanted to look at frequency of winning margin straight up. Could be valuable with sights offering different lines w/ varying juice on the wager.

Don't worry about the 2nd one it's academic, the more I think about the third one also it's just going to turn out to show no bias since the normal O/U records for various lines are right at 50-50. I don't see one side being more likely to cover by 6 or so. So don't worry about that one either unless you want to.

Thanks

I just ran 4 totals line numbers through and they do show some bias.

For a line of 179:
average for all scores (26 instances) = 173.46
Mean was between 166 and 170
There were 20 scores below 179 and only 4 above with 2 right on it. From a high of 216 to low of 153

Line 193 showed no bias at all but since that is the average score for all games played, i think that is to be expected.

Line 200:
Average = 200.304. With 23 instances
Mean = 197
Occured 12 below 200 and 11 above
High 233, Low 159

Line 205:
Average = 206.35 with 34 instances
Mean = 210
14 below 205 and 20 above
High 235, Low 176

Line 210:
Average 216.11 occurred 18
Mean 211 to 213
6 below 210, 12 above
High 257, Low 190

Be back with more later.

 

[ronaldn]

I just ran 4 totals line numbers through and they do show some bias.

For a line of 179:
average for all scores (26 instances) = 173.46
Mean was between 166 and 170
There were 20 scores below 179 and only 4 above with 2 right on it. From a high of 216 to low of 153

Line 193 showed no bias at all but since that is the average score for all games played, i think that is to be expected.

Line 200:
Average = 200.304. With 23 instances
Mean = 197
Occured 12 below 200 and 11 above
High 233, Low 159

Line 205:
Average = 206.35 with 34 instances
Mean = 210
14 below 205 and 20 above
High 235, Low 176

Line 210:
Average 216.11 occurred 18
Mean 211 to 213
6 below 210, 12 above
High 257, Low 190

Be back with more later.

For 215:
Avg = 223.25 with 8 times
Mean 228-229
2 below 215, 6 above
low 200, high 236

Definitely seems like a bias to go over the high numbers and under the low numbers.

Winning margins by
1. 43 times out of 865
2. 58
3. 63
4. 45
5. 51
6. 68
7. 53
8. 58
9. 57
10. 44
>10. 325

 

[ronaldn]

Because of my previous research and figures that showed a bias to go under the low numbers and over the high ones, I did some further research. THE PERCEIVED BIAS ON THE UNDERS DID NOT HOLD UP. There actually was a bias to go over the low numbers. The line of 179 was an aberration.
For lines of:
<= 185..........ov 127...un 98
<= 180..........ov 58....un 44
<= 175..........ov 18....un 15
<= 170..........ov 5.....un 3

The bias did hold up for the high numbers:
>= 210..........ov 28...un 20
>= 215..........ov 14...un 7
>= 220..........ov 6.....un 2

Also, I made a mistake in calculating the earlier figures. Every game was counted twice. While this didnt change the average or the Mean it did double the number of occurrences. My apologies.