What is the maximum % of bankroll one should put on a bet?

[CoachLT]

Coach:

How long has your range been 1% to 5%? For me, started out flat betting in my 20's then began variable at 1% to 5% in my 30's. Nearly 30 years now using this method. Hope I don't go bankrupt. BTW, always important to know which is your stronger sport and make your plays accordingly. Wise man, my kindred brother.

Ted, until the late 70s a couple of locals had 500 limit. Late 70s to early 80s found a lot higher limits. The internet changed everything. One of the best things for me was you had to post up. I got more selective and disciplined. Reduced juice was a boon. Probably the BEST thing was to be able to bet a lot on opening #s on Sunday night. I am lucky in that I can usually find 3-5 games I really like on sunday night. When you only had a local, you would be lucky to get the #s on friday. Ted, my soon to be RX Bash Brother, EXPERIENCE is the one good thing about getting to our age. We BOTH have PhDs in this endeavor! OBTW, now that I am retired, I have a lot more time to pursue this avocation, HENCE the better win%. I always like conversing with you. LT

 

[oldmanTED]

I always like conversing with you. LT

Ditto!!!

 

[Insiders]

My NORMAL unit plays will fall into the 1% to 5% range. The Rubberband Games are between 8 % to 12% with the total wagered NO MORE than 33% of entire BR. This applies to College Football ONLY! I play less than 1%on NFL and 2% on CBB. I know I will win on CFB and I know I will lose on NFL. I guess you could say I am a one trick pony. Gosh, I LOVE College Football! LT:money:

Us old die hard CFB fans will sport one of those up, if it calls for it!

 

[TheFalls]

Ditto!!!

I only play 3/4 season of college fball/nfl and 2/3 season cbb.
Steady 4%-6%.

 

[drunkguy]

you cannot answer the question unless you can accurately estimate your edge on the bets

I would say you want to play 1% flat and go from there

Most people's optimum bet is going to be ZERO, quite honestly

 

[Christian]

christian, that 1% of BR, is it adjusted daily?

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no........only resize at a predetermined point (or at least, this is what i would recommend)

for example: this upcoming baseball season you start gambling, you have a $10,000 bankroll.

you bet $100 on each and every play all season long, or until you gain 50% in profit (once your bankroll reaches $15,000).....then....

once it reaches $15,000, THEN you resize to your new 1% figure (which is now $150 per wager)....and just keep repeating.

i recommend this for most people. i NEVER recommend downsizing though (from your initial 1% value). if you lose 50%, and only have $5,000 left, i wouldn't go down to $50/bet. stay at $100 bet and ride through the losing streak (if you actually have a long-term win expectation)...

if not, if you don't have a long-term advantage then obviously you're just gambling so just have fun....nothing wrong with going broke as long as it's money you can afford to lose and it's just for entertainment.

anyway, even though this is what i recommend, i actually don't do it myself i am very conservative by nature in this business (although not conservative at all when it comes to the stock market, ha, go figure

i don't resize upward. i bet the same each and every play ALL YEAR LONG...but that's because i have different goals. right now, the profit i earn doesn't go to build up my bankroll to increase my wagers....

instead, i skim off my profits for a) living expenses, expenditures and b) to transfer to other investments i have, such as stocks and some future offshore real estate.

but even though i, personally, don't resize upward at the "50% gain" mark, i would still recommend it to most.

 

[TIGERGUY]

Christian,
I've always enjoyed your posts. Thanks for the help.
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[Christian]

Christian,
I've always enjoyed your posts. Thanks for the help.

​

thanks for the nice words! but just like everybody else here, i'm still learning myself. i learn something new just about every day in here.

i can still remember watching a losing bet i had on a Un. of Tenn. college football game back in 1998...

i was hooked on gambling, but i had no idea what i was doing. i still remember watching that game and having that sick feeling in my stomach, that "losing money i couldn't afford to lose" feeling.

i promised myself that i was going to learn how this business works and i've spent a lot of time trying to learn from the best.

this is why this forum is such a great place. years ago, i would have had to practically live at the stardust sportsbook trying to learn from the best.

now i can sit on my couch in my boxer shorts, anywhere in the world, and get a f-in "master's degree" in sports handicapping right from my computer!

 

[ThePig+]

cool post christian.

 

[quantumleap]

i hate to be the bearer of bad news...but if you're betting 2% on "hunch" bets and 5% on ANY bets....

YOU WILL GO BROKE...IT WILL HAPPEN. it may take awhile, hell, it may take a few years, but exposing yourself that much (2-5%) WILL bankrupt you eventually.

Christian:

I hope I don't sound argumentative here but I do believe there are some people who can vary their bets between 2-5% without going bankrupt, CoachLT being one of them.

I have taken your advice to limit my hunch bets. Thanks for the good advice. However, I do believe there are certain subsets that I have documented that would warrant betting at 5%.

 

[tatehill2000]

Quantum,,,

I read most of the posts,,,, but please consider this,,,, when your BR is on a Roller coaster ride there is a Problem,,, and that is your Picking WINNERSSSS However your NOT LOCKING in PROFITS,,,

that is the issue,,, the only issue,,, so you ask the question,,, what is a better betting strategy,,,, (I think that should of been the title of your thread) you can pick winners we both know that,,,, the problem is STRUCTURING a betting pattern that will QUANTIFY your winning %,,,

I think your goal should be to Examine your win % and HOW you WIN,,, then extrapulate a betting pattern and % that will LOCK IN THE PROFITS<,,,,

I know this is a Bit vague,,, but I think you feel where Im going with this,,,

Props to you bro,,,,
tater:drink:

 

[quantumleap]

Excellent post tater. I agree with it.

 

[tatehill2000]

Q,,,,,,,
this is slightly off topic but is the Singapore move Perminant?,,,, and will you be able to post and cap still?

tater

 

[quantumleap]

Q,,,,,,,
this is slightly off topic but is the Singapore move Perminant?,,,, and will you be able to post and cap still?

tater

I'll only be there 3-5 weeks and then take a vacation for a week after that. I think the NBA games start around 8am local time so I hope to follow them while at work. I'll be sure to keep you guys posted.

 

[Illini]

Tater, what's up buddy?

 

[tatehill2000]

(back on topic) I was discussing this with SUREGUY last night,,,, ONES betting patterns,,,,
Iwas discussing with him a different angle,,,, and trying to help SHAPE a dif angle to his betting pattern,,, (he helps me all the time)

anyway,,, thats why were all here to help each other GROW,,,,,

my advice is Console a successful capper that you trust 100% ,,,,,,,,, remember Im saying a SUCCESSFUL capper,,,, be honest with him 100%,,,, telling him all of your habits ,,,,,

then create that fundamental structure to LOCK in those profits and establish the propper betting %,,,

everyone is differnt bro,,,,,, I dont play Parlyas,,, I dont play Teasers,,, but I am associated with those that make 6 figs a year that do,,,,,, lol,,,,,, l just know its IMPOSSIBLE for me to do that,,,, soooo theres some honesty,,, and I hope it helps,,,,

tater

 

[tatehill2000]

Illin i
your sucha class act my friend,,,,,,,,,,,

man I miss your VEGAS thread,,,,,,,,, I hope all is well,,, I think about how mucha STANDUP GUY you are,,, ID love to Buy you a beer my friend,,,, I most likely will be in VEGAS for the BASH 99% so let me bring you an ASHTON CIGAR or buy you a beer,,, I really want to catch up and hear your stories,,,,,

tater

 

[Christian]

Christian:

I hope I don't sound argumentative here....

argumentative? of course not! this is a great debate...that's what these posts are for!

anyway, i should probably expound a bit on where my approach comes from. i handicap year-round now, all pro sports plus college football and basketball. i'll probably have 1,500 bets/year on average. with a .04 cent return on the dollar (which is what i've been averaging the past few years) anything more than 2% is too risky for my win expectation (.04 cents on the dollar). even so, i prefer to play it even safer and go with just 1%...

however, i could easily be more selective with my plays and have, say, only 600-800 plays per year and end up with a higher ROI...then i could probably risk 2 or 3% of my BR, maybe even 5%, and probably still come out ahead...

but after thousands of bets, i've done the math, and i make more PROFIT by making MORE bets at SMALLER amounts than LESS bets at LARGER amounts.

and i think for full-time, year-round bettors, this approach (more bets, smaller % of bankroll) is more suited i.e. the grind approach

 

[nimue77]

And yet its the people who make limit plays all the time that get limited and booted from books.

argumentative? of course not! this is a great debate...that's what these posts are for!

anyway, i should probably expound a bit on where my approach comes from. i handicap year-round now, all pro sports plus college football and basketball. i'll probably have 1,500 bets/year on average. with a .04 cent return on the dollar (which is what i've been averaging the past few years) anything more than 2% is too risky for my win expectation (.04 cents on the dollar). even so, i prefer to play it even safer and go with just 1%...

however, i could easily be more selective with my plays and have, say, only 600-800 plays per year and end up with a higher ROI...then i could probably risk 2 or 3% of my BR, maybe even 5%, and probably still come out ahead...

but after thousands of bets, i've done the math, and i make more PROFIT by making MORE bets at SMALLER amounts than LESS bets at LARGER amounts.

and i think for full-time, year-round bettors, this approach (more bets, smaller % of bankroll) is more suited i.e. the grind approach

 

[tatehill2000]

CHRISTIAN,,,,,

YIKERS YIKERS<,,,,,,,,,,,, I have to say hi to you cause I reallly DIG your words and your angle,,,

BUT your more bets approach si the EXACT opposite of mine,,,, YIKERS<,,,

I bet 1 main bet a DAY (or so) and 1 sml bet usually,,,

(remember,,,, my earlier posts)

I give you props on your many bets but I would DEF be at -0- if I bet more than my most FAV bet of the day,,,,

anyway,,,, thanks for being a stand up guys Christian,,, you put alot of time in this thread and I want to learn from you,,,,,,,,,,,,

tater:thumbsup2: