I wasn't going to get involved as this is basically an old school argument. But thought it was a good spot to make some observations.
These observations are taking Panther at his word. And assuming he did in fact hit what he said he hit.
The first observation is that we have to think that a "55% capper" can in fact increase his percentage that much on game he likes more than a "regular" play. (notwithstanding the 3-16 record noted in the link) First of all it is highly unlikely that the same capper who hit 55% over 4 years could in fact improve that dramitally on games he felt more strongly about. He is still in fact a 55% capper, so his opinion, no matter how strong will still be 55% accurate. That is what I don't get with people. Unless they are following someone else, their stronger picks will ultimately hit at the same percetage as every other pick they make because it is still THIER opinion. And if they are in fact using other people for their "strong" picks, then they are not making the picks themselves, and therefore are not that percentage capper.
Now onto the particulars. I had to assume a few things, but it works out about right. 1463 plays in 4 years is an average of about 18 plays a week assuming a 20 week season. Figuring he has 2 "5 unit plays a week" that would mean his "5 unit plays" account for about 11% of his overall plays.
So the splits would be 1302 regulr pays and 161 5 unit plays.
So at his numbers we get results of 716-586 for regular plays. 106-55 for 5 unit plays.
The next step is another assumption. The one that assumes he bets 1000 (1070 @ -107) per "regular play", and 5000 (5350 @ -107) per 5 unit play. Basically betting enough to win said amount.
If this were all true then his profits in the past 4 years would have been 88980 for "regular plays, and 235750 for 5 unit plays. Basically a 5/2 difference in profits. Total profits are 324730 for the 4 year period, or an average yearly return of about 81000 per year.
This begs several responces. If the returns are that much higher for the 5 unit plays, why not just bet the 5 unit plays and forget putting at risk the 1300 other bets? I mean on the regular plays you only averaged about 22K a year. While risking about 350K a year on these low level bets. Why not just just take that 350K, re-allocate it to the "5 unit" plays and make half a mil a year?
Also if a guy was in fact doing this why would he be posting here? From the replies, it certainly isn't for friendship.
While it sounds like the percentages are "in line" with what a very good capper would expect. When you do it out, it shows that it is actually a pretty unreasonable staement.
These observations are taking Panther at his word. And assuming he did in fact hit what he said he hit.
The first observation is that we have to think that a "55% capper" can in fact increase his percentage that much on game he likes more than a "regular" play. (notwithstanding the 3-16 record noted in the link) First of all it is highly unlikely that the same capper who hit 55% over 4 years could in fact improve that dramitally on games he felt more strongly about. He is still in fact a 55% capper, so his opinion, no matter how strong will still be 55% accurate. That is what I don't get with people. Unless they are following someone else, their stronger picks will ultimately hit at the same percetage as every other pick they make because it is still THIER opinion. And if they are in fact using other people for their "strong" picks, then they are not making the picks themselves, and therefore are not that percentage capper.
Now onto the particulars. I had to assume a few things, but it works out about right. 1463 plays in 4 years is an average of about 18 plays a week assuming a 20 week season. Figuring he has 2 "5 unit plays a week" that would mean his "5 unit plays" account for about 11% of his overall plays.
So the splits would be 1302 regulr pays and 161 5 unit plays.
So at his numbers we get results of 716-586 for regular plays. 106-55 for 5 unit plays.
The next step is another assumption. The one that assumes he bets 1000 (1070 @ -107) per "regular play", and 5000 (5350 @ -107) per 5 unit play. Basically betting enough to win said amount.
If this were all true then his profits in the past 4 years would have been 88980 for "regular plays, and 235750 for 5 unit plays. Basically a 5/2 difference in profits. Total profits are 324730 for the 4 year period, or an average yearly return of about 81000 per year.
This begs several responces. If the returns are that much higher for the 5 unit plays, why not just bet the 5 unit plays and forget putting at risk the 1300 other bets? I mean on the regular plays you only averaged about 22K a year. While risking about 350K a year on these low level bets. Why not just just take that 350K, re-allocate it to the "5 unit" plays and make half a mil a year?
Also if a guy was in fact doing this why would he be posting here? From the replies, it certainly isn't for friendship.
While it sounds like the percentages are "in line" with what a very good capper would expect. When you do it out, it shows that it is actually a pretty unreasonable staement.
Thank You<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wantitall4moi:
I wasn't going to get involved as this is basically an old school argument. But thought it was a good spot to make some observations.
These observations are taking Panther at his word. And assuming he did in fact hit what he said he hit.
The first observation is that we have to think that a "55% capper" can in fact increase his percentage that much on game he likes more than a "regular" play. (notwithstanding the 3-16 record noted in the link) First of all it is highly unlikely that the same capper who hit 55% over 4 years could in fact improve that dramitally on games he felt more strongly about. He is still in fact a 55% capper, so his opinion, no matter how strong will still be 55% accurate. That is what I don't get with people. Unless they are following someone else, their stronger picks will ultimately hit at the same percetage as every other pick they make because it is still THIER opinion. And if they are in fact using other people for their "strong" picks, then they are not making the picks themselves, and therefore are not that percentage capper.
Now onto the particulars. I had to assume a few things, but it works out about right. 1463 plays in 4 years is an average of about 18 plays a week assuming a 20 week season. Figuring he has 2 "5 unit plays a week" that would mean his "5 unit plays" account for about 11% of his overall plays.
So the splits would be 1302 regulr pays and 161 5 unit plays.
So at his numbers we get results of 716-586 for regular plays. 106-55 for 5 unit plays.
The next step is another assumption. The one that assumes he bets 1000 (1070 @ -107) per "regular play", and 5000 (5350 @ -107) per 5 unit play. Basically betting enough to win said amount.
If this were all true then his profits in the past 4 years would have been 88980 for "regular plays, and 235750 for 5 unit plays. Basically a 5/2 difference in profits. Total profits are 324730 for the 4 year period, or an average yearly return of about 81000 per year.
This begs several responces. If the returns are that much higher for the 5 unit plays, why not just bet the 5 unit plays and forget putting at risk the 1300 other bets? I mean on the regular plays you only averaged about 22K a year. While risking about 350K a year on these low level bets. Why not just just take that 350K, re-allocate it to the "5 unit" plays and make half a mil a year?
Also if a guy was in fact doing this why would he be posting here? From the replies, it certainly isn't for friendship.
While it sounds like the percentages are "in line" with what a very good capper would expect. When you do it out, it shows that it is actually a pretty unreasonable staement.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I wasn't going to get involved as this is basically an old school argument. But thought it was a good spot to make some observations.
These observations are taking Panther at his word. And assuming he did in fact hit what he said he hit.
The first observation is that we have to think that a "55% capper" can in fact increase his percentage that much on game he likes more than a "regular" play. (notwithstanding the 3-16 record noted in the link) First of all it is highly unlikely that the same capper who hit 55% over 4 years could in fact improve that dramitally on games he felt more strongly about. He is still in fact a 55% capper, so his opinion, no matter how strong will still be 55% accurate. That is what I don't get with people. Unless they are following someone else, their stronger picks will ultimately hit at the same percetage as every other pick they make because it is still THIER opinion. And if they are in fact using other people for their "strong" picks, then they are not making the picks themselves, and therefore are not that percentage capper.
Now onto the particulars. I had to assume a few things, but it works out about right. 1463 plays in 4 years is an average of about 18 plays a week assuming a 20 week season. Figuring he has 2 "5 unit plays a week" that would mean his "5 unit plays" account for about 11% of his overall plays.
So the splits would be 1302 regulr pays and 161 5 unit plays.
So at his numbers we get results of 716-586 for regular plays. 106-55 for 5 unit plays.
The next step is another assumption. The one that assumes he bets 1000 (1070 @ -107) per "regular play", and 5000 (5350 @ -107) per 5 unit play. Basically betting enough to win said amount.
If this were all true then his profits in the past 4 years would have been 88980 for "regular plays, and 235750 for 5 unit plays. Basically a 5/2 difference in profits. Total profits are 324730 for the 4 year period, or an average yearly return of about 81000 per year.
This begs several responces. If the returns are that much higher for the 5 unit plays, why not just bet the 5 unit plays and forget putting at risk the 1300 other bets? I mean on the regular plays you only averaged about 22K a year. While risking about 350K a year on these low level bets. Why not just just take that 350K, re-allocate it to the "5 unit" plays and make half a mil a year?
Also if a guy was in fact doing this why would he be posting here? From the replies, it certainly isn't for friendship.
While it sounds like the percentages are "in line" with what a very good capper would expect. When you do it out, it shows that it is actually a pretty unreasonable staement.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Want it all: The answer to your question about why not just play the 5 star games is simple to any real football bettor. He wants the "action".
I only do my own handicapping for preseason football. I do very well. I rate my games 1* 2* and 3*. I don't normally bet the 1* games. I play all my 2* (which hit at a rate 55% to 60% over the course of the preseason. I don't get many 3* plays. Maybe 2 to 4 for the entire season. They hit at a rate of 66% to 100%. (over the last 7-8 years) Many times I have asked myself, "Should I not play the 2* games and go for homeruns with the 3*".
But then I would be betting at most 1 game per week. Plus there is no sure thing in gambling. Any season I could go 0 for 4 with the 3* games.
I want the " action". It's not just about winning money. I like betting 5-8 games a week. Even if I just break even I get the "action" from these games. But I do win a little with them. And with the winnings from the 3* games I show a nice profit for the 4 week preseason every year.
If you have a suggestion as to how I can manage my money better, I would like to hear it.
ESQAJM
I only do my own handicapping for preseason football. I do very well. I rate my games 1* 2* and 3*. I don't normally bet the 1* games. I play all my 2* (which hit at a rate 55% to 60% over the course of the preseason. I don't get many 3* plays. Maybe 2 to 4 for the entire season. They hit at a rate of 66% to 100%. (over the last 7-8 years) Many times I have asked myself, "Should I not play the 2* games and go for homeruns with the 3*".
But then I would be betting at most 1 game per week. Plus there is no sure thing in gambling. Any season I could go 0 for 4 with the 3* games.
I want the " action". It's not just about winning money. I like betting 5-8 games a week. Even if I just break even I get the "action" from these games. But I do win a little with them. And with the winnings from the 3* games I show a nice profit for the 4 week preseason every year.
If you have a suggestion as to how I can manage my money better, I would like to hear it.
ESQAJM
