It seems like Iowa doesn't really have a path. They've been pinned at #13 in the CFP. So even if chaos ensues, they probably can't make it. I think the committee would have at least put them ahead of Michigan State.
I've also read/heard that I lot of people think Baylor STILL wouldn't get in, even with a win over Oklahoma State plus the rest of the scenario plays out. I find this harder to believe given that Baylor is in decent position already
I would have Georgia, Notre Dame, and Baylor as the three most likely.
If Oregon were to lose, you'd probably be considering three two-loss non champs: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State. I don't think they'd consider Michigan State or Ole Miss realistically, and don't think Cincy would receive consideration either after being dealt a loss as a G5 team