What do you think of this NFL Strategy?

[BillyWaltersJr+]

tiger i think a great idea in college not pros

Even a worse idea.

Stay away from moneylines, period. Much more money to be made finding value in spread and totals.

 

[Doug]

I think you'd need low vig lines, like Matchbook to do this, but you can't parlay them, so the games have to be spread out in time, then rebet after every game. You might even have to spread your MB "parlay" over two or more weeks. Regular vig would kill you.

 

[DollarDay]

Here you go from College Football this weekend.


Risk $1.00 to pay $.03 - yup, this 15 team parlay paid 3 cents (seeing as how I have $2.00 or so in my 5dimes account i let half of it ride on this big, bad parlay).

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Parlay (15 team)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Status:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Risk / To Win Amount:</TD><TD>1.00 / 0.03 (USD) Accepted 8/30/2009 1:57 PM - EST</TD></TR><TR><TD>Won: </TD><TD>0.03</TD></TR><TR><TD>Amount Paid: </TD><TD>1.03</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Boston College 9/5/2009 2:00:01 PM - (EST)
-50000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Northeastern </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Air Force 9/5/2009 2:00:01 PM - (EST)
-37500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Nicholls State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Oregon State 9/5/2009 2:30:01 PM - (EST)
-63500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Portland State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Mississippi State 9/5/2009 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
-55000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Jackson State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Houston 9/5/2009 5:00:01 PM - (EST)
-32500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Northwestern State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>North Carolina 9/5/2009 6:00:01 PM - (EST)
-32500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Citadel </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #7</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Florida 9/5/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-500000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Charleston Southern </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #8</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Arkansas 9/5/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-55000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Missouri State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #9</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Kansas 9/5/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-67500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Northern Colorado </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #10</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Southern Mississippi 9/5/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-67500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Alcorn State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #11</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Texas Tech 9/5/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-80000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>North Dakota </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #12</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Arkansas State 9/5/2009 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
-63500</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Mississippi Valley State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #13</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Louisville 9/5/2009 7:30:01 PM - (EST)
-60000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Indiana State </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #14</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Vanderbilt 9/5/2009 7:30:01 PM - (EST)
-41000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Western Carolina </TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Item #15</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Outcome:</TD><TD>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>College xtra Football / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:
</TD><TD>Arizona State 9/5/2009 10:00:01 PM - (EST)
-55000</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Idaho State </TD></TR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

[Doug]

now you can say you hit a 15 team parlay !

 

[DollarDay]

now you can say you hit a 15 team parlay !

Ha-ha funny, funny ...

Maybe I should go Tout and shout from the top of my lungs I can hit 15 team parlay's all day long ..... hahaha

 

[Coaster]

using 5dimes money lines of
-880
-700
-485

the return is the same playing one at a time or parlaying them.

if my math is correct ( its early and i'm hungover ) it would be

1000/113
1113 / 159
1272 / 262

+ 534

a parlay for 1000 would pay right around 535 using those lines.

Your math looks correct to me.
I have never played a huge fav, straight up or in a parlay.
I am in error for this wager type, but if you use a 3 teamer (even teams)
individual play usually returns more money.

 

[skinsfan21]

I did this awhile back until the Magic lost big at home against the Atlanta Hawks. The strategy is interesting and puts a bit less gambling in, but you will sweat more then you think. The funniest part about this though, is that he is trying to make this work Week 1 of NFL. The NFL is know for parody and Week 1 is known for being unpredictable. Take some big ML dogs and unders. Those are where its at Week 1 NFL.

 

[TomGshotput]

Messing around with numbers for week one for a moneyline parlay on Tampa and San Francisco to pay out as much as New England, New Orleans and San Diego you would only have to risk less than 5%. In other words my $50 pays out as much as your $1000. If you go 12-5 over 17 weeks and I go 3-14 we're both up about the same amount. But I can't lose more than in a year what you risk in a week