What are your rules when you gamble??

[THE SHRINK]

1-MULTIPLE OUTS!!!

2-NEVER NEVER NEVER TAKE A BAD NUMBER!!!

3-BET DOGS VS. FAVORITES & UNDERS VS. OVERS BY AT LEAST A 2-1 RATIO EACH MONTH!!!

4-TREAT THE NUMBER "2" in HOOPS WITH ALMOST THE SAME IMPORTANCE AS YOU WOULD THE NUMBER "3" IN FOOTBALL!!!

5-HOME TEAMS ARE OVERRATED AS A GENERAL RULE!!!

6-FOLLOWING ONE TEAM VERY CLOSELY IS NOT A BAD IDEA, ESPECIALLY IN COLLEGE SPORTS!!!

THE SHRINK

 

[tuleythetout]

Good stuff...something we've all heard before but sometimes forget in the heat of battle. It's always good to reminds ourselves of these "rules"

My money management rules for blackjack:

Only buy-in for half my bankroll for that session (if the most I'm willing to lose is $200, then only buy in for $100). If I lose the first $100, I only go to my wallet one more time -- AND ABSOLUTELY NO TRIPS TO THE ATM!!!

Set win limits as I go. If I'm up $200, then I won't leave with less than $100 profit. Once I drop to that level, I cash out. If I'm up $300, the threshold if $200, etc.

Also, I set a win limit. Once I'm up 20x my average bet, I won't leave with less than that. If I'm betting $20 a hand, that's a total profit of $400. If I increase my bets during the session to $50 a hand, then $1,000 would be win limit.

I've had so many sessions in which I was way up and ended up giving it all back (and then some). I found that the 20x rule was pretty much the ceiling of what I could reasonably expect to win.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Excellent thread gentlemen,

Much to be learned here like the Fish and McIrish rules for NFL and NBA for example.

#1. A pattern for me is clearly evident over the last few years. I do well in college foots to a lesser degree and college baskets to a greater degree. McCain and Osborne

This may be due to being retired and having the time necessary to spend on these two sports.

#2. All other games have too some degree at least cut into my bankroll. I know why I still bet and lose the small change that I do in those games. And so do you so I don't have to go into it.

#3. Never chase but look for gift halftime lines which I do not categorize as chasing. Basically why I keep The Greek around.
If I think I got an opinion, I start refreshing that screen before the half ends. The TENN Vols -7 2nd half yesterday was only up for a few seconds before going to -7.5 and falls into that category.

#4. My best results come from straight bets only. 1% to 2% of bankroll. I try to flat bet mostly but at times I can't but still stay within 1% to 2%. I deviate from this only in my none winning sports where I bet "beer and pizza" money and usually don'r get the beer or the pizza. But still straight wagers always for me. I know a lot of you will disagree but I do what works for me.
#3. Shop for lines but when there is no advantage spread my wager amounts into different outs.
#4. I obsessively keep records which falls into having time enough to do so and, aside from not chasing, maybe the single most valuable thing I do.

 

[valdosta]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Judge Wapner:
Never bet against the house.And never bet an amount that you are pissed off if you lose.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Some people can't help it. I am pissed off if I lose $5.

a $2600 loss (I think that was my worst), had me pissed for a day. I am a VERY competitive person. It don't last long though (the being pissed off part).

 

[JudgeWapner]

Val,I def understand.I've been doing this for long enough that I don't get pissed when I'm losing or elated when I'm winning.Of course except when the beat is unusually bad.

 

[SSI]

play no more than 2% of bankroll on any 1 play. (preferably 1%)

Have a bankroll.

treat this as a business and not entertainment.

take the good with the bad.

survive and live to play tomorrow.

 

[JudgeWapner]

SSI,very good rules

 

[SrMuny]

What are your rules when you gamble??

Never get married a second time........

TRUST ME ON THAT..........

 

[TheGeneral+]

Great thread. Alot of solid advice here.

Thanks

 

[RAW]

I always stick to the monday night home dog.

 

[NickDouglas]

I keep a maximum daily risk that is 2.5 times my normal play amount (a $100 bettor would have $250 as his maximum daily risk, for example). Then if I get up or down twice the daily risk amount on the week (Monday through Sunday), I quit until the next week. Using the example above, if I were up or down $500 on the week, I would pack it in.

This helps me treat handicapping like a normal job where you take your paycheck each week and go home. I am not what you would call a super sharp player but it has worked pretty well for me so far. I have won 7 of 9 weeks since I implemented these rules, with the equivalent of about 10 standard bets (units) worth of profit overall.

 

[JDeuce]

Great thread!! This one will definitely get printed after a few more enrtries. Here are some of mine:

- In football, always buy a half point on to or off of 3 or 7. For the first time this year, I'm tracking all my games with an excel spreadsheet and it's really eye opening to see how frequently games with lines of 3 or 7 end up being within a half point of that margin. Could be as high as 25%, but it's definitely worth the extra 10% risk in those situations. Besides, nothing feels as good as winning a play because you were smart/ballsy enough to hook it.

- Never lay 4 or more on the road in the NFL past mid October. Early in the season, the better teams tend to win easily...but once it gets to the second half of the year, for some reason...the dogs bark loudly. Think real long and hard before playing ANY favorite in the NFL past October.

- If you really want to tease a couple games, try a parlay instead. I'll tease maybe 5 or 6 times a year...and so far, every time I've done it this year I've won and didn't need the extra points. A 13 to 5 payoff is a helluva lot better than 2 to 1.

- Nothing kills a losing streak like taking a long break (at least a month). Sometimes you just know you're in a hopeless, confidence-less rut that isn't going to end any time soon...so why keep at it? Save yourself a few bucks and watch movies, do some yard work, bang the wife, etc...anything but capping. The games will always be there when you're ready to come back.

- Trust your gut most of the time...it's usually right.

- Know who you want to play, but also read/listen to what others have to say with an open mind. I've won dozens of games that I never would have played until I saw someone else write up their own reasons for playing it...and it sort of hits me in the face that I've found a solid play.

- Look for good pre-game analysis that's a little deeper than "this team SUCKS, so they're going to get rolled..."

 

[WINNINGHAND]

jdeuce, great post. If you adhere to what you preach, i am sure you are very successful. My problem is that I basically am aware of all ofyour pre-requisites, but i don't follow them often enough

 

[valdosta]

Thanks to everyone who answered, good stuff. Not sure about Shrink's #5 though

 

[cincy_]

There is no such thing as HOUSE MONEY

In other words, when your man owes you a dime, it is your dime. It's not HIS dime. If you lose it, you lose your money and not "house money"

You have to value money. Count every penny. Check every dollar bill. The more a person values money, the better the chances of winning at gambling. It's the person that says, "What the hell" that loses.

 

[TheGeneral+]

 

[VisorMan]

always have sex with your wife/ or girlfriend before you start to bet for the day!

 

[Fishhead]

If your betting multiple games AND your to lazy to shop for the best numbers, your better off betting 2(14-5) and 3(6.5-1) team parlays than betting straight bets laying -110.

 

[JDeuce]

Winninghand,

Well, I try. It's tough to adhere to all the rules you know you should follow because we're humans after all. I'm doing my best to get to the emotionless Terminator phase though...

Here are some other sub-musings, geared towards some other things no one has touched on yet:

- Cincy is 100% right...the phrase "house money" makes me want to scream. It's not play money that you have to give back at the end of the games...it's YOUR MONEY! Protect it as if it's nestled in your wallet.

- Even if you're good buddies with your book and trust him to the ends of the earth, you two shouldn't be friends. Don't go drinking with him, don't play golf with him, don't do anything with him except try to take his money. It blows me away how most of my buddies who handicap also love to hang out with their locals. I consider betting to be an all out war of me vs. and him and all my offshore places...

- Stay away from services. 98% of them are crooked, and considering that you have to hit 54% just to break even by yourself, your guru will likely have to hit at a 60% clip (minimum) to cover his service fees AND make you money. If any capper could really do that over an extended period of time, we'd all be lined up at his door.

- Stay FAR away from services who want a percentage of your winnings...that kind of deal is next to impossible to profit from. It irritates me to no end when I think of all the money these clowns rake in while giving back pretty much nothing in return.

- College games are easier to predict than NFL. So many NFL games come down to pure luck; back door covers, freak turnovers, field goals that bounce off uprights, etc. None of that can be handicapped. In fact, my NFL units are about one third of my college units since it's so much more difficult to predict.

- As a general rule, underdogs will be trying to score points until the end of a game while favorites won't. If you're betting the favorite who's up late in a game, all they really care about is winning outright and you have the chance of being back doored. If you're on a dog though, if they're up outright late in the game then you're likely golden. If the dog is down as expected, they'll continue to try to score points to at least make it more respectable until the final whistle. Something to think about.

- Avoid a service who offers a GOY every single year...ie "Doc's Big 10 GOY." To me, a GOY is something you unload on because in your opinion there is a huge error in the posted line. Are you telling me that before every season starts, Doc knows for sure that the books will have an egregious line error in one of the upcoming B10 games? You might find games you feel that strongly about every now and then, but they probably won't (shouldn't) come around every year.

Sorry to get off track...keep the original discussion going.

 

[Fishhead]

For sure, NEVER pay a service for picks.