Oregon -24½/Virginia
I would have posted this sooner but I don't like taking hooks
unless I have to. Now I think this line might go a bit higher by
game time so I'll just grab it now.
Here comes another 50-pt.game and I don't see VA scoring 24
points here.
If I read this week 2 game right, Oregon's offense will be even
more finely tuned than it was last week. Prukop started out looking
somewhat tentative but figuring that it was only his first few offensive
series in his Oregon career, perhaps I should just give him the benefit
of the doubt. He finished pretty strong and by game's end, the Ducks
racked up plenty of offense statistically. They'll just get better as the
weeks go by.
What impressed me the most about the Duck offense was their new
speed. Beyond Royce Freeman who routinely knocks down would-be
tacklers, Taj Griffin, Charles Nelson and Tony Brooks-James took
turns leaving smoke trails in their wake every time they touched
the ball. As usual, it's all about speed.
I liked how Oregon's DB's performed in the game too. There were a
few performances that were potential game changers in future weeks.
The Duck's depth at defensive back is pretty strong, aside from the 1's
the team has at least 10 backups with a lot of speed and potential. I
especially liked the play of Reggie Daniels, Juwaan Williams and Tyree
Robinson. You be hearing more about them - I'm sure of it.
2 Cal Davis TD's were charity gifts. I do not want to sell Oregon's
defense short, even against an FCS team. UCD has a reputation for
turning out QB's and a formidable offense. Oregon's defense didn't
look close to perfectly polished but there were moments of brilliance.
Considering that they are now running a 4-3 defense instead of a 3-4,
they didn't do too badly for a first-time outing.
The closest thing I could find to a Cavalier game vs an opponent that
scores like the Ducks was a home game vs. Boise where they lost 56-14
last year. I think that we are due for more of that at Autzen.
By the way, Bronco Mendenhal is a coach I have a lot of respect for....
But it's a little too soon to see much magic from him yet.
I would have posted this sooner but I don't like taking hooks
unless I have to. Now I think this line might go a bit higher by
game time so I'll just grab it now.
Here comes another 50-pt.game and I don't see VA scoring 24
points here.
If I read this week 2 game right, Oregon's offense will be even
more finely tuned than it was last week. Prukop started out looking
somewhat tentative but figuring that it was only his first few offensive
series in his Oregon career, perhaps I should just give him the benefit
of the doubt. He finished pretty strong and by game's end, the Ducks
racked up plenty of offense statistically. They'll just get better as the
weeks go by.
What impressed me the most about the Duck offense was their new
speed. Beyond Royce Freeman who routinely knocks down would-be
tacklers, Taj Griffin, Charles Nelson and Tony Brooks-James took
turns leaving smoke trails in their wake every time they touched
the ball. As usual, it's all about speed.
I liked how Oregon's DB's performed in the game too. There were a
few performances that were potential game changers in future weeks.
The Duck's depth at defensive back is pretty strong, aside from the 1's
the team has at least 10 backups with a lot of speed and potential. I
especially liked the play of Reggie Daniels, Juwaan Williams and Tyree
Robinson. You be hearing more about them - I'm sure of it.
2 Cal Davis TD's were charity gifts. I do not want to sell Oregon's
defense short, even against an FCS team. UCD has a reputation for
turning out QB's and a formidable offense. Oregon's defense didn't
look close to perfectly polished but there were moments of brilliance.
Considering that they are now running a 4-3 defense instead of a 3-4,
they didn't do too badly for a first-time outing.
The closest thing I could find to a Cavalier game vs an opponent that
scores like the Ducks was a home game vs. Boise where they lost 56-14
last year. I think that we are due for more of that at Autzen.
By the way, Bronco Mendenhal is a coach I have a lot of respect for....
But it's a little too soon to see much magic from him yet.
Conan, If you don't mind me asking, what are your thoughts on that Az State game? I know the Sun Devils have a pretty good home field record and that is a night game so those fans should be extra lathered up. They also have a pretty good run game and that has been a weakness for Texas Tech of late. I'm a bit concerned though of the blitzing ways of Todd Graham's defense becoming vulnerable to a short passing game of Mahomes and company.
Thanks for the great write ups and picks again this year...
I have the Cal/SDST game penciled in as a loss for Cal and I think the spread is correct. I'm really high on SDST this year (played win total over and to win Conf). As far as Cal goes, I like the new qb Davis Webb and Cal's an under respected team in general, the schedule has gotta be the toughest in the country again. But, this sdst squad is so balanced, talented and well coached that I can't go against em here. Since Cal got the early opening game, they also got to start practices earlier and have had more time to make adjustments after the Aust gm so I'm just a spectator.
Gotta go with Utah-3 (from my local) or -3' here right? Byu is still working with the new HC/staff and tempo and Utah can lay the wood.
Agree on the Utah St +16 but only small.
Really like Wazzu. Grabbed +10' and added twice at 11' and 12. mL +345 also.
As bad as Vir looked last week I'm not sold on Ore this year. No play, but... already played NEB pk over Ore next week (5dimes). Like Neb this year and I believe Neb HC Mike Riley knows a thing or two about prepping for Ore.
I have the Cal/SDST game penciled in as a loss for Cal and I think the spread is correct. I'm really high on SDST this year (played win total over and to win Conf). As far as Cal goes, I like the new qb Davis Webb and Cal's an under respected team in general, the schedule has gotta be the toughest in the country again. But, this sdst squad is so balanced, talented and well coached that I can't go against em here. Since Cal got the early opening game, they also got to start practices earlier and have had more time to make adjustments after the Aust gm so I'm just a spectator.
Gotta go with Utah-3 (from my local) or -3' here right? Byu is still working with the new HC/staff and tempo and Utah can lay the wood.
Agree on the Utah St +16 but only small.
Really like Wazzu. Grabbed +10' and added twice at 11' and 12. mL +345 also.
As bad as Vir looked last week I'm not sold on Ore this year. No play, but... already played NEB pk over Ore next week (5dimes). Like Neb this year and I believe Neb HC Mike Riley knows a thing or two about prepping for Ore.
At least some of that is too rich for me Dawgg. I think the deal for this game was made at least a couple years ago and before the Coogs learned how to win. I can't imagine Boise managing to shut down Luke Falk a whole bunch and don't let yourself get caught underestimating the Pirate (Leach) either. I'm in agreement and take the points but I'll just lay back and root for your ML wager. I hope that last week Wazzou's defense was just high on something. (You never know up in Washington, especially out in the sticks.)
WSU+10½/Boise
Last year the Sun Devil's QB Mike Bercovici did manage to produce TO A POINT but he couldn't run with the ball as QB Taylor Kelly did practically at will (to the relief of Todd Graham) before Bercovici came on the scene. Anyway, Texas Tech lacks a run defense and that could easily change things likely opening up the passing game for ASU's new QB Manny Wilkins, who likes to take off and run himself. He ran for 80 yards+ last week. The Sun Devils also have a few high octane backs that you will like to watch with the ball.
If the Devils have things their way, they'll be successful at the start of the game running the ball... with a couple of play action throws to make things interesting... or not. But you can be sure that Wilkins will make his own running game known. It's a nice coincidence that ASU's strength is in their running game which also happens to be TT's biggest weakness on defense. He who controls the clock controls the game (unless you are Oregon -- who doesn't need very much.)
I see now the line is down to 1½ as I write so I'll probably hit it again before the game. Beer sales will be booming at Sun Devil Stadium and all over Tempe.
The thing to keep in mind is the nature of Oregon's offense. Aside from having the West Coast version of Leonard Fournette in the person of Royce Freeman, their speed remains one of their most effective talents... as usual. It goes without saying, their rushing attack is first class. There's really nothing new here... except maybe Charles Nelson who came over from the defense, the short guy with world class speed who cuts on a dime. You get the idea. It's been said by the local sportswriters that Oregon has an "embarrassment of riches" at the running back position.
I've seen this go on and on for the last 10 years, since Jonathan Stewart made himself future millions in NFL money while he showcased himself rushing for the Ducks. Then there's LMJ... and so on. 2016 isn't any different.
No news.
I should mention Oregon's other backs who are expected to get their reps Saturday.
Taj Griffin is a tough-to-get-a-hold-of jitterbug and he is good at what he does best
as an elusive running back. He's at the front of the line.
Tony Brooks-James is a NCAA champion track star.
And Kani Benoit (Ben-Wah) who is also hard to tackle.
All 3 are perfectly capable of breaking into open ground
and taking it to the house from anywhere on the field. I
know. I've see all of them do it.
Taj Griffin is a tough-to-get-a-hold-of jitterbug and he is good at what he does best
as an elusive running back. He's at the front of the line.
Tony Brooks-James is a NCAA champion track star.
And Kani Benoit (Ben-Wah) who is also hard to tackle.
All 3 are perfectly capable of breaking into open ground
and taking it to the house from anywhere on the field. I
know. I've see all of them do it.
Guys I'd watch out for that ASU game. That was a 10-6 game midway 3rd quarter and NAU threw for over 350 yards against the Devils secondary. ASU pulled away late in that game when momentum got rolling. If the Jacks can do that, what do you think Mahomes and Tech will do. Additionally, Mahomes can keep plays alive with his feet, and he'll also have designed runs in their offense. Before the season I reluctantly had TTech by 10 in this game. I got the 3' early but will gladly take the +2 now. I do like the OVER in this one. There is an awful lot of money coming in on Tech in this one if the sites are correct. Over 90%
Boys I'm high on SDSU. If Hawaii can run for 250 on Cal, gotta think Pumphrey and boys put up even more and they have a better QB to help out in the pass game. Not sure if UNH is worth a dang (mags say they are historically pretty good at FCS), but Aztecs held them to under 180 yards on offense. Maybe the SDSU defense is that good, maybe the UNH offense is that bad. One additional note, Cal hosts UTexas next and a little birdie told me that the Cal team watched that ND/UT game last Sunday so they may be concentrating on that, and taking SDSU a bit lightly (even as a dog). Firsthand knowledge of that. I do like that CAL had a bye after the trip to Australia and more practice time, but you have to figure that SDSU is licking their chops to get a swipe at a PAC12 team on it's home field. Aztecs riding a 11 game win streak (HUH!!, very under reported, and they are 9-1-1ATS during the run ). Also SDSU is playing with revenge after Cal beat them last year 35-7. Wishing the game was below 7 though, I'm probably going to jump on SDSU 1Half.
I like Utah to destroy BYU. I was not very impressed with the Coogs offense and I dont think they will be able to run the ball against the tough Utes defense. Utah big in this one.
I think UW rolls Idaho. This will be 50 points or more.
Boys I'm high on SDSU. If Hawaii can run for 250 on Cal, gotta think Pumphrey and boys put up even more and they have a better QB to help out in the pass game. Not sure if UNH is worth a dang (mags say they are historically pretty good at FCS), but Aztecs held them to under 180 yards on offense. Maybe the SDSU defense is that good, maybe the UNH offense is that bad. One additional note, Cal hosts UTexas next and a little birdie told me that the Cal team watched that ND/UT game last Sunday so they may be concentrating on that, and taking SDSU a bit lightly (even as a dog). Firsthand knowledge of that. I do like that CAL had a bye after the trip to Australia and more practice time, but you have to figure that SDSU is licking their chops to get a swipe at a PAC12 team on it's home field. Aztecs riding a 11 game win streak (HUH!!, very under reported, and they are 9-1-1ATS during the run ). Also SDSU is playing with revenge after Cal beat them last year 35-7. Wishing the game was below 7 though, I'm probably going to jump on SDSU 1Half.
I like Utah to destroy BYU. I was not very impressed with the Coogs offense and I dont think they will be able to run the ball against the tough Utes defense. Utah big in this one.
I think UW rolls Idaho. This will be 50 points or more.
Imo bigike that's not what bigike meant: Focussing on a region certainly can be benefitting, I think he just pointed out that at least this week it's all picks on PAC12 teams, so it could come across as being a little biased when someone expects them to run the table in those games. Might be a slight bias towards the conference you follow most, might just be by chance.
Either way Conan always points out the reasoning behind his picks, so everybody easily can decide whether he agrees or disagrees on certain assumptions about how those games will play out. So his posts are always a great source for some insight on games involving the PAC12.
Best of luck to Conan, you, bigike and everybody else
