West Coast/Pac-10 Week 15

[Conan]

<table class="tablehead teamTop colOne" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead"><td width="15%">DATE
</td><td width="45%">OPPONENT</td><td width="20%" align="middle">W-L (CONF)</td><td width="20%" align="right">RESULT</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9/01</td><td align="left">No. 18 Tennessee</td><td align="middle">1-0 (0-0)</td><td align="right">W 27-24 OT</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>9/13</td><td align="left">@ No. 18 Brigham Young</td><td align="middle">1-1 (0-0)</td><td align="right">L 59-0</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9/20</td><td align="left">Arizona</td><td align="middle">1-2 (0-1)</td><td align="right">L 31-10</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>9/27</td><td align="left">No. 25 Fresno State</td><td align="middle">1-3 (0-1)</td><td align="right">L 36-31</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>10/04</td><td align="left">Washington State</td><td align="middle">2-3 (1-1)</td><td align="right">W 28-3</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10/11</td><td align="left">@ Oregon</td><td align="middle">2-4 (1-2)</td><td align="right">L 31-24</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>10/18</td><td align="left">Stanford</td><td align="middle">3-4 (2-2)</td><td align="right">W 23-20</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10/25</td><td align="left">@ California</td><td align="middle">3-5 (2-3)</td><td align="right">L 41-20</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11/08</td><td align="left">Oregon State</td><td align="middle">3-6 (2-4)</td><td align="right">L 34-6</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>11/15</td><td align="left">@ Washington</td><td align="middle">4-6 (3-4)</td><td align="right">W 27-7</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11/28</td><td align="left">@ Arizona State</td><td align="middle">4-7 (3-5)</td><td align="right">L 34-9</td></tr></tbody></table>


So You think USC will only score how many points? Oregon State score 34 on UCLA, Cal 41, AS 34, Oregon 31, Fresno 36, BYU 59 and Tenn 24. Cmon now. Do You remember What Tennessee was doing on defense at UCLA in that game. I think they intercept UCLA in this game at least 5 times or more. USC scores 50 on UCLA here. It's going to get UGLY. Rivalry Rivalry, blah blah blah. UF/FSU was a rivalry that turned ugly last week too. I would be careful playing under that total in this game.

Or how about these: (UCLA points allowed home games)

TN ---- 24
AZ ---- 31
WSU -- 3
STAN - 20
OSU -- 34

Note that OSU and AZ have 2 of the top scoring offenses in the conference. Theoretically just add 3 points to any of those scores for a game total because that's what UCLA will score here, maybe 6 or 7. The under play is also based on UCLA bringing all it can into this game and all they have is defense. Avg. 22 ppg allowed at home. OK so USC is a couple TD's better, possibly... 40-7 still wins. I don't think it will get any uglier than that.

BOL

 

[Conan]

Recap:

Season to date:
48-29 (62%) + 24.5 units

Week 15:
USC/UCLA U47.5**
UA-10/ASU*
Cal-34/UW*

Adding:
UA-6.5/ASU 1H*

Leans:
ASU TT U20* (the greek) hmmmm...
USC-31/UCLA*

Dejuicer/kicker: (parlay to any side changes odds from -110 to +120)
Zona ML -450 (solid)

May as well try to be a little creative with a short card

 

[gynecologist]

I believe I'm the only one who likes UCLA +33 tomorrow.. haha


GL this week my man..

 

[Conan]

I believe I'm the only one who likes UCLA +33 tomorrow.. haha
GL this week my man..

Actually Gyno, at first I thought the line was too high. But everyone's been saying that Craft will probably give away a couple TD's and I can see why. Also, UCLA's offense will lose the field position game and give USC a short field etc. etc.... I only leaned a bit towards USC because if all of that happens, then UCLA will be left in a cloud of dust because they can't score.

But I really think the scoring in this game will revolve around USC's offense grinding out their points, though not in droves because UCLA's defense won't let them.

As far as the field position thing goes, I thought some more about it and it suddenly occured to me that I remember thinking that their special teams actually won the TN game and that I was joking around that their punter should have been awarded MVP of the game. I checked on him and I was right. Aaron Perez leads the Pac-10 in avg yards per punt... close to 50 I think, high 40's for sure but he hits the coffin corner often and reliably puts the ball inside the 20. If there's been any criticism of him, it would be that he outkicks his coverage. I swear he's the best player on the team. If they all just did their jobs as well as Perez the Bruins would pose a serious threat to the whole conference.

All the better that this one could go under and for reasons such as that, I do give the Bruins a shot at covering this huge number despite their offense.

But I like USC just a little more because you don't see them scoring less than in the 30s very often and Craft is likely to throw a pick or 2 to help contribute. The Bruin offense is practically a non-factor in this, but I do think their defense has it in them to slow the Trojans offense down if they show up to play. If so, you may win.

All in all, I'm not betting a side because I think it could go either way. Depends a lot on UCLA's D (and their special teams) vs their own pick-prone QB. Thinking about all that wierds me out. It's too unpredictable.

 

[Conan]

Update:

Season to date:
48-29 (62%) + 24.5 units

Week 15:
USC/UCLA U47.5**(W)
UA-10/ASU*
Cal-34/UW* (W)
UA-6.5/ASU 1H*

I figured I'd wait until Zona went up by a TD in the 1H (knock on wood.)
I don't think we'll hear much from ASU's offense today. I sure hope not.

Keeping my fingers crossed. I'm going to make money today but I'd like to make a lot with a little bit of luck. I haven't swept the board all season. Maybe today???

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I thought the under was done after the first quarter, but it was smooth sailing after that. Nice hit.

 

[Conan]

I thought the under was done after the first quarter, but it was smooth sailing after that. Nice hit.

UCLA came out AS IF (heh heh) they thought they'd get someplace. (heh heh)... but I was right about them showing up with their guns drawn. Their defense showed up and played well but their offense was shooting blanks after the adrenalin ran out. That's what made this bet work. I also suspected Craft to keep it more together and he did by not getting picked very much. In fact UCLA won the TO battle.

That kind of reminds me of the way ASU came out guns ablazing. Didn't figure that would happen. My only loss.

I really shot my wad bigtime on that under play to end the regular season and I'm very happy that it ended the way it did. I never swept the board even once this year but on the other hand I had only one losing week (W9.) I'm glad it's done.

I will probably pick about 5 or 6 bowl games involving WC teams so I'll stick around. Last year I hit 80% of my bowl selections (4/5) and I hope to do as well this year.

Week 15:
USC/UCLA U47.5**(W)
UA-10/ASU*(W)
Cal-34/UW* (W)
UA-6.5/ASU 1H* (L)

3-1 (75%) + 3 units

Final regular season record:
51-30 (63%) + 27.5 units

BOL everyone... the regular season is a wrap.
Now let's make some more "football money" in the bowls.

 

[Conan]

One quick tip about the bowls...

Without even seeing where they will play, fade Utah. Get down on them ASAP because I think the steam will go against them. I guarantee they will struggle vs anyone they play (likely 'Bama or Texas but maybe OSU.) If Boise lucks out and gets the nod over OSU in the BCS, I'd consider betting them and will probably bet them regardless. I'm thinking perhaps they will play TCU... not a problem.

 

[UoweDucks]

Congrats on a GREAT regular season bud!

 

[gynecologist]

I think Bama might just kill Utah myself..

You never know with these bowl games.. I'm really looking forward to the TCU/BSU line.