well, since we're talking about the Senate, the democrats better hope Silver is wrong

[SheriffJoe]

Even Dirty Harry thinks Nate is a goof:

“He gave me a 16 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Heidi Heitkamp an 8 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Jon Tester a [34] percent chance of being reelected, So all polls are about like Nate Silver’s predictions: good sometimes, bad most of the time.” -- Harry Reid

@)

 

[Willie99]

RCP got 49 out of 50 states right by just using poll averages which is all they do, no adjustment necessary

Silver takes the same polls and adjusts them

now if Silver's adjustments were based on the turnout and voting patterns of 2008, then I might suggest he got a little lucky. The turnout in 2012 looked nothing like 2008, neither did Obama's support.

but if Silver's adjustments were based on what he believed the turnout would be and he foresaw the turnout, then that was an all-time great call as he hit the nail on the head


I know libtards will never comprehend the nuances of my argument, they'll do what they do best, hate with anger.

 

[The Guesser]

Even Dirty Harry thinks Nate is a goof:

“He gave me a 16 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Heidi Heitkamp an 8 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Jon Tester a [34] percent chance of being reelected, So all polls are about like Nate Silver’s predictions: good sometimes, bad most of the time.” -- Harry Reid

@)

Harry Reid is an idiot and a liar. No surprise an idiot hypocritical liar like you Casper, is quoting him here.

 

[Willie99]

I don't think RAZ got a single state wrong in 2012, but all of his toss up states went to Obama

he said Romney had 206 locked up, and Romney won 206

RCP poll averages had 11 states a toss up, within the margin of error, including all 8 states RAZ had as a toss up. He's right in there with the rest of them

 

[Willie99]

if Silver knows something about who's turning out, then he's the man as that's the difference in close elections

 

[SheriffJoe]

Nate Silver will NEVER call a presidential election for Republicans.

His streak will end when his party's streak ends.

It's that simple.

 

[The Guesser]

Nate Silver will NEVER call a presidential election for Republicans.

His streak will end when his party's streak ends.

It's that simple.

He'll call a Presidential Election for the R's when/if the NUMBERS show that's the correct call, not wishing and hoping like many of the clueless idiots like Rove and Morris and Wrong Way, etc., did in 2012.

 

[SmallDaddy]

I don't think RAZ got a single state wrong in 2012, but all of his toss up states went to Obama

he said Romney had 206 locked up, and Romney won 206

RCP poll averages had 11 states a toss up, within the margin of error, including all 8 states RAZ had as a toss up. He's right in there with the rest of them

Yeah Okay

Absolute blood bath for Rassmussen

.............Rassmussen.........Silver........ Actual

Ohio............T....................O+3...........O+2
Wisc............T....................O+5...........O+5
Vir...............R+2................O+2...........O+2
FLA.............R+2..................T...............O+1
Col..............R+3.................O+2...........O+4
NH...............R+2................O+3.5.........O+5

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=931414&highlight=somebody+is+full+of​

​

 

[The Guesser]

Yeah Okay

Absolute blood bath for Rassmussen

.............Rassmussen.........Silver........ Actual

Ohio............T....................O+3...........O+2
Wisc............T....................O+5...........O+5
Vir...............R+2................O+2...........O+2
FLA.............R+2..................T...............O+1
Col..............R+3.................O+2...........O+4
NH...............R+2................O+3.5.........O+5

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=931414&highlight=somebody+is+full+of​

​

Wrong Way was Right. Raz didn't get a single state wrong, he got 4 Wrong. But that's "nuanced". Great job SD cheersgif

 

[SheriffJoe]

Newsflash: Obama hack predicted Obama victory!

 

[SheriffJoe]

Nate Silver's not so rosy predictions:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010 Midterm Elections


Prediction: Republicans will pick up 54-55 seats in taking back the U.S. House; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will be unseated.

Outcome: The GOP gained 63 House seats; Reid survived in Nevada

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 Presidential Election

Prediction: Obama, the consistent favorite, will win in an electoral college landslide.

Outcome: Obama held consistent leads in the polls en route to an electoral college landslide.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 College Football Championship

Prediction: Notre Dame will beat the spread against Alabama in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

Outcome: Alabama won in a landslide 42-14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 College Basketball Tournament

Prediction: Louisville, Florida, Indiana and Gonzaga will advance to the NCAA Tournament's Final Four.

Outcome: Of the four predictions, only Louisville was right.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 NFL Playoffs And Super Bowl

Prediction: Before playoffs, he picked the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl. Before the game he picked the San Francisco 49ers to win the championship.

Outcome: None of those things happened.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/nate-silver-s-seven-most-memorable-predictions

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note how the Democrat hack ALWAYS UNDERESTIMATES Rs and ALWAYS OVERESTIMATES Ds.

Like I said, his luck will run out next time we're in a GOP cycle.

If you've seen one tout, you've seen'em all.

 

[The Guesser]

Nate Silver's not so rosy predictions:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2010 Midterm Elections


Prediction: Republicans will pick up 54-55 seats in taking back the U.S. House; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will be unseated.

Outcome: The GOP gained 63 House seats; Reid survived in Nevada


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 Presidential Election

Prediction: Obama, the consistent favorite, will win in an electoral college landslide.

Outcome: Obama held consistent leads in the polls en route to an electoral college landslide.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 College Football Championship


Prediction: Notre Dame will beat the spread against Alabama in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

Outcome: Alabama won in a landslide 42-14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2013 College Basketball Tournament


Prediction: Louisville, Florida, Indiana and Gonzaga will advance to the NCAA Tournament's Final Four.

Outcome: Of the four predictions, only Louisville was right.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2013 NFL Playoffs And Super Bowl


Prediction: Before playoffs, he picked the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl. Before the game he picked the San Francisco 49ers to win the championship.


Outcome: None of those things happened.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/nate-silver-s-seven-most-memorable-predictions

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you've seen one tout, you've seen'em all.

You are actually equating Sports Predictions with Rock Solid Political Poll analysis? Loser!@#0ointer:.

 

[SmallDaddy]

Note how the Democrat hack ALWAYS UNDERESTIMATES Rs and ALWAYS OVERESTIMATES Ds.

Like I said, his luck will run out next time we're in a GOP cycle.

If you've seen one tout, you've seen'em all.

Not quite, Joey... not quite

Swatting two posters with one chart

.............Rassmussen.........Silver........ Actual

Ohio............T....................O+3...........O+2
Wisc............T....................O+5...........O+5
Vir...............R+2................O+2...........O+2
FLA.............R+2..................T...............O+1
Col..............R+3.................O+2...........O+4
NH...............R+2................O+3.5.........O+5

 

[SmallDaddy]

Same story for the Senate as well

..............Rassmussen.............Silver..........Actual

Brown(OH) +2..........................+6..............+5
Casey (PA)..+1..........................+7.5............+9
Nelson (FL) +3...........................+8.............+13
Kaine(VA)....+2..........................+3.5...........+4

 

[SheriffJoe]

You are actually equating Sports Predictions with Rock Solid Political Poll analysis? Loser!@#0ointer:.

"Rock Solid Political Poll analysis" LOL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%. -- Rasmussen 2004

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nate Silver can only dream of such accuracy.

The next time the GOP wins an election, Rasmussen will once again be on top and Nate Silver will have egg on his face, just like whenever the Democrat dweeb does his best Stu Feiner impersonation filling out his March Madness brackets or telling us who's going to win the SB.

You know why? Because of what Willie said - TURNOUT.

The Rasmussen models had different turnout models than Silver...but the GOP base didn't show up for McCain and definitely didn't bother showing up for Romney - DUH!

 

[The Guesser]

"Rock Solid Political Poll analysis" LOL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%. -- Rasmussen 2004

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nate Silver can only dream of such accuracy.

The next time the GOP wins an election, Rasmussen will once again be on top and Nate Silver will have egg on his face, just like whenever the Democrat dweeb does his best Stu Feiner impersonation filling out his March Madness brackets or telling us who's going to win the SB.

You know why? Because of what Willie said - TURNOUT.

The Rasmussen models had different turnout models than Silver...but the GOP base didn't show up for McCain and definitely didn't bother showing up for Romney - DUH!

One moron quoting another, Casper quoting Wrong Way. Anticipating TURNOUT is part of successful analysis, idiot. That's why partisan acks like Wrong Way are partisan hacks, who wish and hope, but have no actual numbers to back their hopes, while Nate throws feelings out, just crunches numbers, and gets things right. Rasmussen USED TO BE reliable a decade ago, but then he let his Political biases get in the way. So far, Silver hasn't, and has undersold Democratic margins nationally. As for his own Politics, this is what he said about the Presidential Race in 2012.
"In a 2012 interview with Charlie Rose he stated, "I'd say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose."

 

[SheriffJoe]

One moron quoting another, Casper quoting Wrong Way. Anticipating TURNOUT is part of successful analysis, idiot. That's why partisan acks like Wrong Way are partisan hacks, who wish and hope, but have no actual numbers to back their hopes, while Nate throws feelings out, just crunches numbers, and gets things right. Rasmussen USED TO BE reliable a decade ago, but then he let his Political biases get in the way. So far, Silver hasn't, and has undersold Democratic margins nationally. As for his own Politics, this is what he said about the Presidential Race in 2012.
"In a 2012 interview with Charlie Rose he stated, "I'd say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose."

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Silver continuously undersells Republicans and cheers on Democrats.

In 2010, he predicted the GOP would gain 50 seats - they won 63.

Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...gain-in-house-but-may-understate-uncertainty/

"May understate uncertainty" = "I'm just fucking guessing!" face)(*^%

But that's what turnout models are - educated guesses.

And note the depressing words for "his team":

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Do Democrats need an economic miracle to avert a serious setback in congressional elections next year?"

http://www.esquire.com/features/data/obama-mid-terms-033009

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for 2014, you know things are looking pretty grim for Democrats when Silver is warning his party "may lose the Senate"

Shush()*

 

[The Guesser]

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Silver continuously undersells Republicans and cheers on Democrats.

In 2010, he predicted the GOP would gain 50 seats - they won 63.

Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...gain-in-house-but-may-understate-uncertainty/

"May understate uncertainty" = "I'm just fucking guessing!" face)(*^%

But that's what turnout models are - educated guesses.

And note the depressing words for "his team":

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Do Democrats need an economic miracle to avert a serious setback in congressional elections next year?"

http://www.esquire.com/features/data/obama-mid-terms-033009

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for 2014, you know things are looking pretty grim for Democrats when Silver is warning his party "may lose the Senate"

Shush()*

Small Daddy already showed what a liar you are about this. But we already know that you're a liar Casper. Of course you are showing Silver's earlier models for 2010, and not his last one. And the models for 2014 are extremely preliminary. As Election day gets closer, they'll be more accurate, and will be NUMBERS, not wishing and hoping like you and Wrong Way do. As for "his team", it's the same as yours, although I don't know if he's into Purple Flowers.