weekend

[rolltide]

93-8-75 +15.46 (stake 226.25)


Fri night match Mexico

Morelia vs Queretaro
- just 4 matches remain for relegation with Queretaro 7 points behind Atlante and 8 behind Puebla so the time for anything but 3 points is over. The 2H disaster last week likely doomed them to drop but odds here are too good to pass up as Morelia are nothing special. In fact both Morelia and Gallos have idential 4-6-3 records. Last week was the first match in over 2 months where Queretaro were scored on more than once and, in fairness to them, they should have been up 2 or 3 goals at HT then cruised from there. Their finishing in 1H was awful and the 1-0 HT lead was overturned by a superior La Maquina side but Morelia are not superior in any way to Gallos. Morelia are the draw masters of the league with 6 of last 7 overall matches ending in 0-0 or 1-1 but I can't see Queretaro comfortable with X in this game. Gallos terrible h2h (0-3-6) and never won in Morelia (0-1-5) but they play good football and shouldn't be more than +350 in this game.

Queretaro 1u to win 5u

 

[rolltide]

Fri Norway 1pm

RBK vs Start
- RBK are best team in league and right now unstoppable and get a promoted club here at home. Start go up and down every year so teams have met a lot in the past with RBK 9-1-2 at home. USMNTer Diskerup in the starting lineup

RBK -1.5 1u to win 1u

 

[rolltide]

Sat 4pm

Vancouver vs Real Salt Lake
- RSL with almost as many injured guys as fit ones and will probably have to play 2-3 guys that aren't even 80% fit on the brutal artificial turf in BC. Vancouver have been solid at BC place, 10-6-3 (including 2-0-0 in 2013) with 9 of those wins against western teams like RSL who have never won in Canada (8 tries). This was always going to be a bit of a rebuilding year for RSL and with their makeshift lineup on the nasty turf at BC Place I've got Vancouver as solid -1/2 favorites.

Vancouver -1/4 2.5u to win 2.63u

 

[rolltide]

Mex Fri night

Santos vs Toluca
- big odds move toward Toluca as Santos resting a few regulars like Gomez and Darwin but still plenty of experience in starting 11. In fact only 1 player, Cardenas, has seen less than 13 matches in Mexican league play in 2012/13 so not concerned at all. Both teams have had equally busy schedules with Toluca in Liberatdores and Santos in CCL so fatigue shouldn't be an issue even though Santos playing for 3rd time in a week. H2H shows Toluca just one win here in 11 meetings and home team has lost just once in last 14. Santos awesome at home with just 5 defeats in 46 in all competitions and only 2 losses in last 26 league games. Toluca big struggles to score neeting just 1-0-1-0-0-0-1-1 in last 8 games and away from home haven't scored in 326'.

Santos -1/4 1.08u to win 1u

 

[rolltide]

Sat England

Ipswich vs Hull City
- Ipswich haven't allowed a goal in 456 minutes and just 1 goal allowed in past 8 games (738 minutes!). Hull 4/5 under goals with 1-1-1-3-1 scored in total so also playing great defense and not exactly lighting the net up. Two of the four lowest goal total teams in the league

Ipswich/Hull u2.5 2u to win 1.4u

Stockport vs Dartford
- Dartford done for the year...won't go to playoffs, won't relegate...but this is Stockport's GOY. A loss here they are destined to drop but a win will get them into safety needing likely only a draw next week away to stay up as this is their last home game. Stockport with the week off while this is 4th game in 7 days for Dartford who are the worst road team outside of relegation trouble. Stockport are shit but gotta back them here.

Stockport 2u to win 1.66u

 

[Calibre]

Sat 4pm

Vancouver vs Real Salt Lake
- RSL with almost as many injured guys as fit ones and will probably have to play 2-3 guys that aren't even 80% fit on the brutal artificial turf in BC. Vancouver have been solid at BC place, 10-6-3 (including 2-0-0 in 2013) with 9 of those wins against western teams like RSL who have never won in Canada (8 tries). This was always going to be a bit of a rebuilding year for RSL and with their makeshift lineup on the nasty turf at BC Place I've got Vancouver as solid -1/2 favorites.

Vancouver -1/4 2.5u to win 2.63u

I will be at the game tomorrow... Should be an even better time now

 

[rolltide]

Halftime play, Arsenal/Norwich

Arsenal outscoring teams 24-10 at home in 2H this year while Norwich getting outscored 5-16 on the road in 2H. All Gunners in 1H as Norwich haven't had a single attack, shot, or shot on goal

Arsenal 1.5 to win 2.4u

Halftime Soccer Spread Money Line Total Points
England Premier League
Sat 4/13 54 Norwich City (ENG-P) +1200 o1½ -131
10:00AM 55 Arsenal (ENG-P) +160 u1½ +111
56 Draw +305

(5dimes line above)

 

[rolltide]

also taking liverpool 2h. shots 13-2 for them and reading without a sog. one sided match. smaller bet

Liverpool 2H .82u to win .5u

 

[rolltide]

Alex McCarthy just had the best keeping performance i've seen in years. incredible (of course it meant losing the liverpool bet)...you got to see the highlights. wow

 

[rolltide]

FA Cup semi...
WIGAN Al Habsi, Kone, Alcaraz, McCarthy, Maloney, Gomez, McManaman, Boyce, Beausejour, Figueroa, Scharner

Wigan with all their regulars. in good form and Millwall are brutal to watch...no creativity, no finishers. will not be pretty to watch but I think Wigan slip into the final

Wigan 1u to win .92u

 

[rolltide]

Mexico Liga Ascenso 9:50 pm

Celaya vs Dorados
- numbers just don't add up to this line. Celaya matches avg 2.17 gpg, Dorados matches just 1.67 gpg. Both teams with 9 of 12 matches ending with 0-2 goals and half matches ending with just 0 or 1. Celaya home games avg just 1.80 gpg, Dorados road matches only 1.60 gpg. In last 6 matches Celaya 4/3 goal differential, Dorado 5/3. o/u should be flat 2 goals.

Celaya/Dorados under 2.5 1u to win .83u

 

[rolltide]

Seattle vs New England
- really big talent gap here but just a small bet. Revs have one just one match in 4 years in either mountain or pacific time zones so clearly don't like long road trips. They've not show up on offense at all this year with just two goals scored and none in the last 300 minutes. Seattle with a tough turnaround after the midweek loss in Mexico and without Martins and Johnson again up front and Martinez in MF. NE with a lot of time to prepare for the match so just 1u on the Sounders. Tough to see this match with 3 goals as well but just sticking with small home win

Seattle 1u to win .76u

 

[SunDodger]

I hope you are right about the Sounders. They looked better at Santos Laguna, but are still struggling to find the back of the net with any consistency. No Johnson up front? Who's it going to be then, Ochoa and Zackuani?

 

[rolltide]

Zakuani and Neagle

 

[rolltide]

scores did not follow the stats this afternoon in MLS

Van 16-3 shots, 28-12 crosses ... 1-1
Phi 18-6 shots, 34-10 crosses ... 1-1
Sea 13-5 shots, 25-16 crosses ... 0-0

 

[rolltide]

CUSA vs Colorado
- Col going back to 4-3-3 and while Agudelo won't start for CUSA gotta applaud their own attacking formation. Both defenses will conceded so gotta hit the 2.25 line which has dropped into range.

CUSA/COL o2.25 1.5u to win 1.25u

 

[rolltide]

Stoke City vs United
- posted many times about United's record in the league after a loss and while the ideal situation is a home game after a road defeat they've not dropped points after a league loss since the first match of 2012 (and Mar 2011 before that). Stoke right now play the worst football in EPL with just a single win in 2013 against relegated Reading. Everyone wants Stoke to relegate along with Reading as they just play a brutal brand of football. 2nd worst in the league in home shots and home SOG, 2nd worst all games in shots and dead last in SOG, and by far last in the league in goals in open play with 11. ELEVEN! United lead league in open play goals with 45, in set piece goals with 19, and have pressured opponents defense to a league-leading 5 own goals. Stoke foul more than any team in EPL (13/game) and are totally dependent on attacking down the right side (almost half their possession is right side vs middle or left) which is strength of United. Stoke clearly the more motivated club but United simply don't give away points in b2b league matches and are 9-1-0 L10 against Stoke allowing a total of 5 goals. This reminds me a lot of the late 2012 match at Sunderland when everyone thought United would sleepwalk to a loss but put in a shift and won it with a solid effort.

Man Utd 2u to win 1.33u

 

[rolltide]

BMG vs Stuttgart
- certainly a concern that these are among the 4 worst teams in shots allowed but they combat that with being among the worst in shots attempted so should even itself out. As Celaya/Dorados and Hull/Ipswich showed totals betting can be somewhat of a crapshoot but you've got to trust the numbers regardless. BMG sitting 7-1 unders in last 8 away and haven't netted in 5 of the last 7. Stuttgart 5-1 unders last 6 at home. Neither team showing much up front...BMG with 0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-1 in last 9 while Stuttgart have scored multiple goals just once in last 12 league games. Like I said...gotta trust the stats

Stutt/BMG under 2.5 2u to win 1.5u

 

[rolltide]

Montreal vs Columbus
- intended on passing this match but odds keep going up on MTL. Watching both teams play several times this year I absolutely believe Montreal are superior club and getting Nesta back in defense this week is a big positive. Columbus' best player, Higuain, is doubtful with a calf injury and given the weather I'm fairly certain he won't start the match. Not the greatest day for football...45 and raining.

Montreal 1.33u to win 1.50u


waiting on boniek-garcia status before moving on hou game

 

[rolltide]

2h bet Bilbao/RM over 2.5 2u to win 1.4u

- incredible offense in match and shocked there is only one 2' goal to show. Need 2 in 2H for the win here. Bilbao will score and RM should get at least another if not a couple