How many "fade G-Man" Plays dod you have yesterday Doc!?
DocHolliday: Posted dec 31st 2022
"Won’t bore you with too much info. I do have a few "connections" to UGA. My capping plus a little inside info I’m pounding UGA on the ML today.
a few factors:
- Ohio state, weak schedule. Only played 3 ranked teams. Struggled against ND, beat penn state whose overrated, and then got drilled by michigan
- Georgia drilled Oregon, beat South Carolina on the road, anyone that watched the Tenn game knows uga dominated that and we saw what Tenn did to clemson last night. Would a healthy Tenn beat ohio state I say hell yes. Uga also beat LsU in this very same building
- game is practically a home game for uga
- for the people wondering the line. It opened at 7, now it’s at 6. Honestly it could be 3 and people would still bet Ohio state. Ohio state is a bigger name than uga is in the sport. People see Ohio state and automatically think they are elite, this Ohio state team isn’t.
- for people that like trends. Semi final games typically are blow outs. Whose more likely to blow out who?
- again a little insider information as well that I can’t share, I’ll just simply say the uga side of things is extremely confident.
I’m taking the money line but I do think this ends up a 2 score game. With the Money I’m betting just don’t want to get back doored. If Ohio state gets ball first and scores I’ll likely add even more to the ML.
Hey Doc
I have an inside "connection" to every NFL team and my contact told me who would win all these bets. Its my inside Source, But I cant say here who it is in public.
WEEK ONE>
Lions +6.5 (Caesars) over KC. 10 Units................................W+1000
Detroit ML +190. 2 units...........................................................W+380
Saints ML -170 over Tennessee. 5 units................................W+500
Browns +2.5 (MGM) over Bengals. 10 units.........................W+1000
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SF. 10 Units...............................................................L-1100
Baltimore -9.5 over Houston. 5 units....................................W+500
Jacksonville -5 over Colts. 10 units........................................W+1000
Arizona +7 over Washington. 5 units.....................................W+500
Miami +3 over Chargers. 10 units ..........................................W+1000
Eagles ML over New England/ 10 units ................................W+1000
Dallas -3 ovvero Giants 3 units. ..............................................W+300.
Week One.
10-1. +6,080.00
your down over 10k betting baseball. You’ve lost 3 of last 4 nfl seasons, amongst all other things. If i add togther your 3-14 playoff run with this 10-1 start and i see 14-14, which is a loser.
this is like I’ve said many times:
The golfer that cant shoot 90. Yet gets lucky and makes one birdie amongst the bogeys and double bogeys made throughout the day.
The golfer talks non stop about the biride, not the other 20 shots that ended up in the water and the woods. So we’ll hear about this for a while.…. but doesn’t change the fact THAT
Congrats on the birdie. They happen. Doesn’t change the fact that you cant shoot 90.
this is like I’ve said many times:
The golfer that cant shoot 90. Yet gets lucky and makes one birdie amongst the bogeys and double bogeys made throughout the day.
The golfer talks non stop about the biride, not the other 20 shots that ended up in the water and the woods. So we’ll hear about this for a while.…. but doesn’t change the fact THAT
Congrats on the birdie. They happen. Doesn’t change the fact that you cant shoot 90.
Everyone gets red hot for one season. Don't know if it will continue. Look at MF how he had the season of a life time, which was just pure luck. Reading his write ups and reasoning was just a bunch of crap and useless. Look what's happened since then. How much do you think I made after his once in a lifetime season? In the big picture you have to analyze the big picture. Record breaking lifetime season or peters out. After the first week I think the NFL will be pretty predictable as long as you don't overthink. Looks like the same bad QB's. Wilson,Fields, Smith plus throw in the 3 rookies. Those 6 will make you a bunch of money. I think.
Props to a good week. But he refuses to walk away from
Anything. He went back and found a college football posts from a year ago in which I was right
he wants too much attention.
here are facts:
Last playoffs 3–14
Last nfl season: 80-96
Week 1- 10-1
I see 93-111.
I trust ^ way more than one hot week.
however for a guy that constantly bitches about the forum he sure likes the stir shit up. Hope the mods handle him the same way others get handled
Anything. He went back and found a college football posts from a year ago in which I was right
he wants too much attention.
here are facts:
Last playoffs 3–14
Last nfl season: 80-96
Week 1- 10-1
I see 93-111.
I trust ^ way more than one hot week.
however for a guy that constantly bitches about the forum he sure likes the stir shit up. Hope the mods handle him the same way others get handled
When someone has a week like that you know what to do the next week.
I mean there are 3 active sports going on right now; MLB, CFB, NFL— when you have 700 posted plays b/t them all, are nowhere near 500 on said picks, when you are only having 1 winning season amongst the group and you’re down around 5K combinted in all 3 sports.……
but as i said, props to the birdie. Bad golfers make birdies, losing cappers have winning days.
but as i said, props to the birdie. Bad golfers make birdies, losing cappers have winning days.
As usual DOC is lying again!
I smoked you on the Georgia -Alabama Championship game you lost both years.!. I made a huge wing write up as usual on the wins but you faeded me just like you faed the other 35 plays that I now with a 26-9 record.
Last year I had OHI state +6 ATS and WON. This is why your bashing contu=inues Fioc. You constantly leave out al my winner when you talk about one loss.
I also had Ohio State plus the points asshole. which YOU lost by saying Georgianwould cover by 2 scores...LOL'. Everyone can go back and read that quote above in this thread...OIts the famous Doc has a "Connectiion" thread titled as a egotistical GIFT to the forum. He was s getting crushed by telling the whole forum to fade me in the bowls - so he invented his new ;little friend as having a connection to a Georgia insider contact...OOOOOOOhhhh MYYYYY!
G-Man's plays.
2022-23. Bowls Season to date. 27-15 ATS
ML's 4-6.
Georgia -12.5 over TCU.
A year ago this game was all about the SEC.
Georgia and Alabama faced off. Both teams last year had impressive defenses.
Current Betting lines show that the percentages are massively on TCU.
When this line opened, the Original % showed they were on TCU at 93% at The RX Odds page.
Other sources now have TCU at 78%. Now the RX shows 79%.
Thats two different sites with nearly exact percentages as of Wednesday Jan 4th.
My belief is that the betting percentages will never even out. Time will tell.
TCU stunned Michigan.
But more important - Georgia played against the best team and should have lost to OSU. A Missed OSU FG decided that win for Georgia.
The main deal with TCU - is that hey keep beating better teams. Games have gone down to the last play or two.
Their last 3 games as a under dog/pk have all been SU wins!
Georgia has been Georgia all year. They do have some problems covering point spreads. They are 1-3 last 4 ATS.
In perspective, they're facing the hottest team right now who is surprising many.
My concern now is their recent play against KY. Georgia/KY was low a scoring 16-6 win.
The last time Georgia did that was against Clemson, way back in 2021 with a 10-3 win over Clemson.
TCU had a similar game against Texas this year with a 17-10 win.
Texas had been a solid defensive team all year.
So was KY vs Georgia.
I have to put that into perspective for Georgia by believing they were looking past KY and just assumed they would win easily.
TCU on the other hand was excited about playing against Texas and thought they could make an impact to rising in the ratings. They did just that,
For those who followed my plays last year in the bowls, I wrote about everyone being on Alabama on the National Championship game and that Georgia would win and cover that game.
I saw that the Public was all too impressed with the earlier win when Alabama beat Georgia in the conference playoff game.
Then afterwards, Alabama embarrassed Cincinnati and Georgia beat Michigan easily as well 34-11. (*) <<<
The main reason for Alabama being bet on by the masses last year, was because Georgia lost to them in the Playoff Conference game.
The public often fades away from the team that didn't Cover in the previous game - like we had last week with Georgia NOT covering vs Ohio State.
The spread for this game is Georgia -12.5 which far larger and would easily chase the masses to bet on TCU. Especially after TCU upset Michigan. Georgia will cover IMO.
The betting percentages validate that, just like last year when the masses bet on Alabama.
This year Georgia didn't face Alabama for the Conference Playoff this year - They faced LSU and smashed them badly by putting up 50 points.
So the obvious question is why is the line so large for this game with TCU? They (Vegas) could have made it much lower to draw even action? At least thats what the conditioned public believes.
They believe that Vegas post lines to draw even action. I Don't!
Well, it didn't draw even action last year and Georgia rolled over Alabama all the while that Alabama was bet on in the masses.
We have the same scenario for this Game with TCU. Only bigger.
The public likely wont bet much on the Large ML and since the high percentages are already on the dog getting points, how will Vegas get "even action"?
They wont and aren't trying to.
If So, the line would drop to balance the bets, if they were unsure of who will cover.
As of today - now Jan 5th - the line is holding firm at -12.5 and the percentages are still at 75% on TCU.
My guess is that if they wanted to move the line downs to 10 or less it still wouldn't balance the bets. I believe that the Public is locked in on TCU.
So what we have here, is the line could likely go down to 11.5 or 11 hours before KO. Therefor keeping theDouble-Digit spread available, so the public stays on TCU, while all the time knowing that it will do just what the Bama line did last year by dropping a point late and getting the public to BELIEVE that Bama was the right bet.
For TCU. at this time to be facing Georgia, I think that the Public thinks that the Georgia defense has slumped.
What it really shows to me, is that Michigan wasn't as good as a defensive team as their record showed and the game against OSU was much closer than the final score indicated when they beat OSU in the season final. That was their Super Bowl - and not the game with TCU.
The Buckeyes rolled up 500 yard against Michigan but they had 2 turnovers to add to the loss.
Coach Dykes is well respected and will bring a great game plan for this one. But when it comes down to coaching I have to ask...Is Dykes' plan any better than what Nick Saban could bring? Even if he could, does he have the player depth that Alabama maintains every year?
TCU has Duggan at QB and he's great, but if Georgia takes away the run game TCU is in trouble IMO.
Knowing that Georgia has the best run defense by far of all the bowlers and that if Georgia is doing that to TCU - it will have a drastic effect to the TCU offense.
I also dont think that TCU would have beat OSU last week. I think the win over Michigan was two fold. One - Michigan had the biggest game with OSU the week before and Harbaugh is no where near a good coach at making halftime changes to overcome high scoring offenses.
Finally (Remember that Little Red (*) Asterisk - I posted a few paragraphs up) > if you look at what Georgia (-7) gave Michigan last year and what Michigan(-7.5) gave TCU this year - this line is actually a little low. mainly because Michigan , and Georgia and also Ohio State, are all nearly exactly who they were a year ago. Those points are what validates the spread on this game with TCU.
They aslo show me that Georgia will do the same again to TCU. Im NOT betting against the best defense in the Game. 15 pts average vs Bowlers until they faced OSU last week.
Finally. When was the last time that a team - which didn't make it to a bowl game the year before - ever come in to a Championship Game and win or Cover against a returning Champion?
Im all over Georgia - and this game could be over early with that Georgia defense shutting down TCU. Maybe under 63.5 also.
My Play. Georgia -12.5
2021 Championship
G-Man.
The seasons final play. Georgia - Alabama.
After going 24-9 in the bowls- here is the Biggest of all.
This entire analysis is based on no Covid issues changing the forecast. If things change before game day, this may or may not - become a different play.
No trends are considered. They are worthless as always to me. Only todays team with todays players matter.
Georgia -3 over Alabama
Georgia ML -145.
The Common opponent is important here as always. Statistical Advantages are also relevant, with a careful analysis on those stats.
Winning teams can pay a hundred games against each other and the best team doesn't always win.
Georgia lost SU to 6-point underdog Alabama in the Conference Championship game. The game was lost in the 2nd qtr when Alabama scored 24 points.
The Georgia run game was shut down to 109 yds on 30 carries. That is the main reason they lost offensively - with the defense being clueless for the first half. I'll explain later here.
The two interceptions were damaging, but the last one in the fourth qtr for a TD made no difference in the final outcome.
Georgia must be able to run the ball.. When that happens, the opponent gets fewer chances to score. It also puts the opponent in a pass mode to catch up.
When Alabama took the lead, Saban was smart to know that the Bulldogs would no longer be able to stop them.
Georgia was the top run defense in the country so Saban decided to see if they could pass on them and it worked. Georgia was unprepared for that and never made the adjustment to it and lost.
This game will be different - as changes will likely be made to shut down the pass first and the run second. Georgia has the better defense and will make that change. Many of the passes that Bama had were long gainers. Georgia needs to fix that and then win the game.
In common opponents, Georgia was better against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn than how Alabama played them. The scores were closer for the Bama games while Georgia won easily and shut down all three opponents.
The Point spread was over priced for Alabama on all three games because of betting public on Alabama.
Validation for that is recognized as well, because only Florida was played by Bama before Georgia played them. But Georgia played at a neutral site against Florida for the game.
Scores for Alabama were:
Bama (-14). 31-29 over @ Florida
Bama (-21). 24-22 iver @ Auburn
Bama (-21). 42-35 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home and 2 away.
Scores for Georgia were:
Bulldogs (-14) 34-7. over Florida (N)
Bulldogs (-14.5) 34-10 over @Auburn
Bulldogs (-16.5) 37-0 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home game. 1 away and 1. Neutral site.
Now we get to Georgia and the Alabama spread and SU loss in the Conference playoff game..
Georgia was a 6 point favorite and lost SU as explained above.
The spread was based on the public over paying on common opponents in the earlier matchups as shown above.
The playoff game was a neutral site game.
Obviously with Georgia out-scoring all three opponents that Alabama played - the line was based on those scoring advantages and put into play on the playoff game being at a neutral site. Thats all true and correct.
In statistical advantages - Georgia should have won the game by more than 7 points, but lost.
Knowing that the line was realistic to the potential outcome and since Vegas has the betting history in their favor to justify the spread to their advantage, they were counting on a win.
Regular season scoring against all opponents was Georgia 39-10.
Alabama scoring was 43-20. A natural difference when is subtracted from the other is @6 points.
Georgia was better on defense by 10 points, but Bama was better by 4 points on offense. Result Georgia better by 6.
But in these 3 games against common opponents, Georgia was far better with averages at. 35-6.
Alabama was 32-28. The main difference was the defense by Georgia. That defense didnt play like that against Alabama just a few weeks ago.
This game is where its at now. Strictly the defense and that's where the adjustment must come from. The offense will take car of itself when the defense plays the way its capable of playing.
I doubt that Bama could ever play defense any better than it did in the last game - with Georgia only scoring 24 points, - but Im sure that the Georgia defense can fix everything this time to prevent Alabama from reaching that score again, or anywhere near it.
In addition - If Georgia removes the interceptions for this game, they will drive the ball and continue to score more.
As we speak - its noted that 63% are on the SU Dog-winner again, all because of that last game. The Public is all over Alabama.
Vegas just did what their betting history advantage gives them. They feel that they still have their best interest on Georgia and moved the spread down to 3 points from 6 in the previous game - with all the masses on Bama.
They just put 3 more points in their advantage.
They are still basing the spread by the public being on Bama. and they are keeping the public there - even though they gave themselves a better advantageof 3 points without losing any Bama backers on that side.
The season-long points scored are the original factors the line was set on in the last game. Now The public is banking all the money on the upset that day -again!.
All the public see's now - is a 41-24 win by the dog who is a dog again.
Finally Looking at the last 2 teams that played Georgia and Alabama, (Michigan and Cincinnati), there is no doubt what team was better.
Cincy couldn't beat Michigan at anytime and Georgia dominated Michigan - just the way they're are going to play Alabama for this game on Monday,
Georgia must focus on the pass, as Alabama was one of the worst bowl teams with only a 3.6 yds per rush average vs bowlers.
The Georgia defensive line will be good enough to cover the run - and that gives Georgia the chance to play 5 DB's against the pass. Something they didnt do until the second half in the last game.
In the Playoff game for the SEC Championship, Alabama scored on its last four possessions of the 1st half. Alabama produced 365 yards, including Young's 286 passing -- an SEC title-game first-half record. That wont happen again.
My Plays are Georgia ML -145
Georgia -3.
Looking For Win #25!
Ohio State +6 over Georgia.
Buckeyes ML +215
I posted a play on Michigan in the Big 10 championship game this year. The numbers then showed that Michigan was the play.
When actually playing the game - it was much closer than the actual score. OSU was careless at times and coughed up the ball 2 times. No excuses here - but observations of that loss were recognized when looking at the whole picture.
If they play again in the National Championship game, I think they beat Michigan. Game stats from the outcome showed OSU winning in the stats. They rolled up 500 plus total yards .
Michigan deserved the win and won it with better plays but that can be adjusted if they meet again, IMO.
Much like when Georgia lost to Alabama last year in the conference championship and afterwards won over Alabama in the NATIONAL Championship.
Georgia is coming back to defend the title, but knowing who they are facing now will be interesting for this game.
A year ago they faced a solid Bama team. This year they faced a softer LSU team. The Buckeyes are better than LSU and Bama this year and likely better than Michigan - As I mentioned.
The smallest point spread that Georgia laid all year was -10 against a 30 point defense of Tennessee.
I think the small line for this game with OSU is untended to draw the masses on Georgia. Currently the odds posted here at the RX show 83% on Georgia.
Last year it was intended to draw the masses to Alabama, just because Alabama upset Georgia in the conference playoff game. Georgia rebounded snd won easily for the National Championship.
Back to the Georgia game against Tennessee -Granted that Tennessee is scoring 40 points per game this season, but when better teams play - -the defenses usually dictate the winners.
Beating Tennessee by the score of 27-13 wasn't what I call very impressive. My stats say the Georgia wont reach 27 against Ohio State. And If Im right, they likely could lose SU.
The Buckeye's do have the best WR in Harrison Jr and my bet says that no one on Georgia will be able to stop him. If so, OSU wins this, IMO.
Where, in all the bowl games, are you ever going to get a better under dog than OSU.
My Play Buckeyes +6.
Going withe ML +215 .
[IMG alt="G-Man!"]https://images-therx-production-409396115112.s3.amazonaws.com/data/avatars/m/112/112668.jpg?d=1650296908[/IMG]
JoinedDec 18, 2017Messages6,201Tokens
2,685
If Game is delayed to another date -All plays are discarded and will be replayed at that time.
(FanDuel)
Ohio State +8.5 over Bama. 5 units
Ohio State ML+235 Over Bama. 5 Units
OSU 1st quarter. ML +165. 5 units
OSU 1st Qtr +4.5. (-138) 5 units
OSU 1st half +4.5 (-105) 5 units
OSU1st Half ML+200. 5 units
(BetAmerica)
OSU/Alanbama. Total/Game Under 75. 5 units
OSU 1st half. UNDER Total. 38.5 . 5 units
i can dig up many more plays where you were wrong and lost your ass than you can dig up winners. Check out this GEM
Anyone have any idea how this one turned out? Looks like about 40 units spread out there
G-Man!
Member
HandicapperJoinedDec 18, 2017Messages6,201Tokens
2,685
Game MUST BE PLAYED ON MONDAY Jan 11th.
If Game is delayed to another date -All plays are discarded and will be replayed at that time.
(FanDuel)
Ohio State +8.5 over Bama. 5 units
Ohio State ML+235 Over Bama. 5 Units
OSU 1st quarter. ML +165. 5 units
OSU 1st Qtr +4.5. (-138) 5 units
OSU 1st half +4.5 (-105) 5 units
OSU1st Half ML+200. 5 units
(BetAmerica)
OSU/Alanbama. Total/Game Under 75. 5 units
OSU 1st half. UNDER Total. 38.5 . 5 units
i can dig up many more plays where you were wrong and lost your ass than you can dig up winners. Check out this GEM
Anyone have any idea how this one turned out? Looks like about 40 units spread out there
Dont need mew material asshole. Just pointing out that you only LIE!.
Too bad you dont bet. You could have won10 games yesterday instead of spending all your time bashing...
Damn you have to much time on your hands. Crazy. You bring on all the your own drama.
[IMG alt="G-Man!"]https://images-therx-production-409396115112.s3.amazonaws.com/data/avatars/m/112/112668.jpg?d=1650296908[/IMG]
JoinedDec 18, 2017Messages6,203Tokens
2,685
Season. 15.-149-7. -12555.00
Monday Championship .
Gonzaga ML -200. 5 units
Gonzaga -4. (-110) 5 units
Gonzaga -3.5 (120) 5 units
Gonzaga -3 (-130). 5 units
Gonzaga -2.5. (-140) 5 units
Gonzaga -2. (150). 5 units
Gonzaga -1.5 (-160). 5 units
Gonzaga -1 (-170). 5 units
Gonzaga. 1st half. -2.5. 5 units
Gonzaga ML 1st half. 165. 5 units
Gonzaga/Baylor. Under st half. 76. (-120) 5 units
Gonzaga/Baylor Gm. Under 162 (-160) ( 5 units
2-Team Parlay. 5 units to win. +1051.00
Gonzaga ML-200 and Under 162(-160)
2 Team Parlay. 5 units to win. +989.00
Gonzaga -4 (-120) and Under 162 (-160).
what about this play. EVERY BET MADE HERE LOST… and if you notice he was already down 12K prior too.
G-Man!
Member
HandicapperJoinedDec 18, 2017Messages6,203Tokens
2,685
Season. 15.-149-7. -12555.00
Monday Championship .
Gonzaga ML -200. 5 units
Gonzaga -4. (-110) 5 units
Gonzaga -3.5 (120) 5 units
Gonzaga -3 (-130). 5 units
Gonzaga -2.5. (-140) 5 units
Gonzaga -2. (150). 5 units
Gonzaga -1.5 (-160). 5 units
Gonzaga -1 (-170). 5 units
Gonzaga. 1st half. -2.5. 5 units
Gonzaga ML 1st half. 165. 5 units
Gonzaga/Baylor. Under st half. 76. (-120) 5 units
Gonzaga/Baylor Gm. Under 162 (-160) ( 5 units
2-Team Parlay. 5 units to win. +1051.00
Gonzaga ML-200 and Under 162(-160)
2 Team Parlay. 5 units to win. +989.00
Gonzaga -4 (-120) and Under 162 (-160).
what about this play. EVERY BET MADE HERE LOST… and if you notice he was already down 12K prior too.
2017! LOL.
Look how hard up he is for saying fade G-Man for the last 2 years and him losing !.
he so embarrassed for eating that shit - with him losing - the guy discounts a 10-1 NFL day to show the whole forum how jealous he is...LOL
Youre a fuking child!
Look how hard up he is for saying fade G-Man for the last 2 years and him losing !.
he so embarrassed for eating that shit - with him losing - the guy discounts a 10-1 NFL day to show the whole forum how jealous he is...LOL
Youre a fuking child!
