Week 6 Stinkers

[Michelangelo]

Winner monday with Pitt +4
YTD 26-19-1 +634

Thursday:

New Orleans +3 -101 (vs Atl)

Julio Jones is hammy hobbled. Leonard Hankerson has sore ribs. Roddy White is playing like he's Father Time. And Tony Gonzalez ain't coming down that runway. So it's Devonta Freeman left, Devonta Freeman right, and Devonta Freeman up the gut. The kid is a stud. But he'll slow the game down. What happens if the Falcons get behind?

The Falcons have 6 sacks in 5 games. Those are the magic numbers that will free Drew Breese to find his young receivers, Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks.

Last December these two Division rivals met in the SuperDome and the Falcons stole the Saints halo 30-14. Think the Aints get it back tonight.

 

[Michelangelo]

Winner Thurs with NOr +3 (vs Atl)
YTD 27-19-1 +734

///

Since 2001; Week 6:

58 Home Favorites
69 Road Dogs
28 Road Favorites
33 Home Dogs

 

[Michelangelo]

Miami +2' -109 (@ Tenny)
If the bye came in the first five weeks of the season, teams who had losing SU records before their bye are 8-1-2 ATS as Road Dogs in their first game after their bye (L5Y)

 

[Michelangelo]

NYJ -7' -101 (vs Wash)
If their bye came in the first five weeks of the season, teams who had winning SU records before their bye are 3-0 SU and ATS if they are Home favored over a non Division team (L5Y)

 

[Greenbacks]

Good luck MA!

 

[Michelangelo]

Seattle -7 +105 (vs Car)
In the past 5 years there have been three undefeated teams with their byes coming in the first 5 weeks of the season. All three were on the road after their byes and all three lost both SU and ATS. All teams with winning pre bye records, on the road after their byes, if the bye came within the first 5 weeks, are 1-5 ATS. (L5Y)

 

[Michelangelo]

Thank you Greenbacks. To you as well. And to your Mets.

 

[Michelangelo]

Chicago +3' -105 (@ Det)
Week 6 Divisional Road Dogs of +3 or +3' are 6-3 ATS since 2001.

 

[Michelangelo]

Pittsburgh +5 -105 (vs Azo)
Arizona has been playing a bunch of pop tarts. This week they travel East against one of the AFC's better teams. Pit is 4-1 ATS as a non Divisional Home Dog over the past 5 years.

 

[Michelangelo]

Getting winners muscles and gonna take a shot on the Pats.

Since 2001 there have been Zero winning "spotlight" game road favorites of -7 or higher in Week 6. Heck the highest winning spotlight game road fav in all those years in Week 6 was -4 in 2007.

There have, however been 3 Week 6 "spotlight game" winning home dogs of +11; +8'; and +6 since 2001.

But remember when it comes to any trends, the Patriots are trend breakers.

Add:

New England -8' +100 (@ Indy)

Might be my homerism. Be careful. I'm playing with their money.

 

[Michelangelo]

yest 4-2 +200
YTD 30-21-1 +834

Monday:

NY Giants +3' -102 (@ Philly)

So exactly the same time last year (Week 6), but on Sunday night, the Gmen went into Philly and got embarrassed on National TV, 27-0, as Philly sacked Eli 8 times and the Eagles took the ground route to the tune of 203 yards. Don't expect either of those gaudy Philly stats to repeat tonight as Eli has only been sacked 4 times all year, which is the least for any QB who has started all 5 games YTD, and the Giants are clogging the running lanes, allowing only 80.6 yds per game which is second best in the NFL.

Giants get revenge for last year's beatdown.

 

[Michelangelo]

Correction. Eli's sack total is second best. Ryan Fitzpatrick actually leads with 2.