Looks like true freshman Justin Herbert starts for the Ducks Saturday. He has only played a tiny bit in the last garbage time drive vs. Wazzu last week. Not sure if Helfrich is making a move of desperation, panic or plain stupidity. Herbert should have played in the 4th quarter of other games like Virginia or UC Davis, when they were safely ahead. First game vs. this nasty Husky D? My bad 10 point spread doesn't look so bad now. By the way, the line is off the board at some books….
It looks like the line is back up and is at 9 or 9.5 in most places. Out of Eugene: It's also very possible that Herbert may not start, but play at some points during the game. The Huskies will prepare for with him or Prukop.
Ken Woody, of the Eugene Resister-Guard, has an excellent analysis of the Ducks' game at Wazzu. The loafing charge should be especially disturbing to Duck fans. I'm not sure if it's true, or how much it happens, but I do think Oregon is so used to winning and winning big, that they can't handle this much losing. They played fairly well at Nebraska, looked overmatched at times with Colorado, and then totally stunk vs. the Cougars.
Ken Woody, of the Eugene Resister-Guard, has an excellent analysis of the Ducks' game at Wazzu. The loafing charge should be especially disturbing to Duck fans. I'm not sure if it's true, or how much it happens, but I do think Oregon is so used to winning and winning big, that they can't handle this much losing. They played fairly well at Nebraska, looked overmatched at times with Colorado, and then totally stunk vs. the Cougars.
I love FSU in this. Miami has played nobody and their offense has not looked very good. Kaaya looks like he has stone on his feet and their OL is not very impressive. GT is the best team theyve faced even though they are not anywhere near on par with Miamis talent and GT actually out gained them in yards and put up the same offensive points as Miami. Yes FSU defense has been shredded but they have been shredded by some of the elite offenses in the league who all run spread uptempo offenses with mobile Qbs which Miami is none of those things. Yes Miami can go tempo to try and take advantage of this but that is not what they do for a full game. I dont think Miamis defense will be able to stop FSU at all either. If this game is played id go FSU ML with them winning like 34-27.
Kaaya is not a running threat, but according to NFL scouts, he has very good footwork, and is likely to go in the 1st round- maybe early or mid. His OL has also improved from last year, only giving up 2 sacks in 4 games this year, and allowing their running game to improve along with it. Besides, it's not all on Kaaya. Miami's offense is just the kind of offense FSU has failed to defend for 4 of their 5 games this year. Up tempo at times and a more physical running game when it's what the D gives them. FSU's front D has not had a lot of push, and they are often lined up poorly or do not stay with their assignment. FSU has had the more difficult schedule for sure, but after 5 games in successive weeks, can they go full speed for another 60 minutes? They quit vs. Louisville. They looked unprepared vs. UNC and Ole Miss in both 1st halves. Miami has played them close even with much worse teams than this one. FSU fans and alumni seem more concerned with the UNC kicker and his taunts and DC Charles Kelly's imminent firing than this upcoming game. Anyways, I'm sticking with UM.
1* Memphis -6.5 1H Memphis runs a very hard to defend offense, with many options off of each set or alignment. Temple will be missing at least 5 starters tonight on their defense, and it'll take them a bit to adjust. The -10 game bet might also be a good play, but I like Memphis to score quickly as Temple is coming off playing 2 incredibly bad offenses in SMU and Charlotte. Temple has also feasted on turnovers. If the TOs are fairly even 1H, Memphis should cover. Temple doesn't really have one aspect of their game that stands out.
These go under the category of "Playing them while hot/ or not".
(the not is the Beavers)
2* Cal -13.5 Cal has given up a ton of points, but that was against mostly very prolific offenses. The Beavers definitely do NOT fit under that category. The Beavs have issue all over the field, but the QB issue is just a mess. And the two guys that play don't even consult or talk to each other on the sideline. The porous OL doesn't help. OSU is thin on the OL as medical retirements and injuries have left them with scout team players for backups. Most distressing for OSU is that the DL is absolutely awful, more worthy of a weak Mt. West team than a PAC 12 team. And the secondary and LB corp have many injuries and are possibly going to burn 2 redshirts Saturday to get some more bodies there. I like that the weather will be dry and relatively warm for the Northwest in early October. Could talk myself into a 3*.
2* Colorado +5.5 Sefo Liafau has been taking reps this week in practice. I'm thinking that after 3 weeks rest and playing USC, he might finally play. The backup, Montez, has been incredible, but this week he faces a better defense than the Oregon teams. I still like Colorado as I think they are so more improved all over the field, and have a great coaching staff. The Buffs took their foot off the pedal last week in the 2H vs. Beavs and I think that bodes well for prep for this week's game. USC missing 2 key OL, and a limited TE. USC also starts a true frosh at QB, and he's been good, but we'll see if he regresses here. Last year USC won three close games and lost 6. I don't think this team is any better, so I'll take the points and hope for Sefo to start.
(the not is the Beavers)
2* Cal -13.5 Cal has given up a ton of points, but that was against mostly very prolific offenses. The Beavers definitely do NOT fit under that category. The Beavs have issue all over the field, but the QB issue is just a mess. And the two guys that play don't even consult or talk to each other on the sideline. The porous OL doesn't help. OSU is thin on the OL as medical retirements and injuries have left them with scout team players for backups. Most distressing for OSU is that the DL is absolutely awful, more worthy of a weak Mt. West team than a PAC 12 team. And the secondary and LB corp have many injuries and are possibly going to burn 2 redshirts Saturday to get some more bodies there. I like that the weather will be dry and relatively warm for the Northwest in early October. Could talk myself into a 3*.
2* Colorado +5.5 Sefo Liafau has been taking reps this week in practice. I'm thinking that after 3 weeks rest and playing USC, he might finally play. The backup, Montez, has been incredible, but this week he faces a better defense than the Oregon teams. I still like Colorado as I think they are so more improved all over the field, and have a great coaching staff. The Buffs took their foot off the pedal last week in the 2H vs. Beavs and I think that bodes well for prep for this week's game. USC missing 2 key OL, and a limited TE. USC also starts a true frosh at QB, and he's been good, but we'll see if he regresses here. Last year USC won three close games and lost 6. I don't think this team is any better, so I'll take the points and hope for Sefo to start.
Tidbits from Duckville: Although the Duck coaches claimed that there was a battle for the starting QB job, I think hoping the Huskies would have to prepare for Prukop and Herbert, and continuing their usual obfuscation of what they are up to, Duck center, Jason Hanson, said point blank that Herbert was getting all the first team reps. Thanks Jason. UDub thanks you too.
Also, true freshman LB Troy Dye, made some remarks about some players not expressing the desire to be good and win. I'm sure his defensive teammates love hearing that from a true.
LB Johhny Ragin, the leader of the defense, will be missed. According to a report, he was the one guy DC Hoke could count on to organize the defense. A vocal guy who gets them lined up, and studies the game.
Coach Mark Helfrich is just too nice a guy, without that assertive-type personality that guys will follow during adversity. THIS is probably also a factor in Oregon's slide.
Finally: My own take is that the Ducks are almost too obsessed with cool uniforms and style, that they forget that football is a brutal game where cute Duck pants don't mean s**t.
Also, true freshman LB Troy Dye, made some remarks about some players not expressing the desire to be good and win. I'm sure his defensive teammates love hearing that from a true.
LB Johhny Ragin, the leader of the defense, will be missed. According to a report, he was the one guy DC Hoke could count on to organize the defense. A vocal guy who gets them lined up, and studies the game.
Coach Mark Helfrich is just too nice a guy, without that assertive-type personality that guys will follow during adversity. THIS is probably also a factor in Oregon's slide.
Finally: My own take is that the Ducks are almost too obsessed with cool uniforms and style, that they forget that football is a brutal game where cute Duck pants don't mean s**t.
Speaking of new-fangled Duck uniforms, check out their latest concoction going with an old school themed "Webfoots". Seems appropriate as the Huskies are probably looking to stick their foots up the ducks backside.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/7/13195996/oregon-webfoots-new-uniforms-throwbacks
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/7/13195996/oregon-webfoots-new-uniforms-throwbacks
Making Cal a 3*. Cal out gained their opponents in their 2 losses by 325 yards. Oregon State might have some success on the ground, but they have been brutalized in the 1H by their last 2 opponents, and then got the benefit of playing 2nd stringers or a vanilla offense in the 2H. I just can't see how they keep up with Cal's scoring here. This Cal receiving corp has the potential to be better than the guys who graduated last year.
I can't believe these 2 games are just 11 points apart as totals.
2* Texas/ Oklahoma- over 73 I know this looks like a high total, but it fits a theory I have about games when 2 offensive giants/ conference rivals play each other. I hit it last week with TCU and Oklahoma, and other games in the past. It seems that even defensive stalwarts like Alabama and Clemson are involved in high scoring games when playing top echelon opponents. Maybe it's that college offenses have progressed to the point that defenses just don't have the personnel to keep up and these manifest themselves more in big games. Many times I regretted NOT playing these overs. Part of this play is that these two offenses got it all- running game and passing attacks that can score in a multitude of ways. Part of it is that Shane Buechele, I think, is underrated. One NFL exec said: He shows a lot of poise, has a nice touch on the ball and has a feel for the game. You would think that in these type of games with rivals that it would be a grind it out, physical game. But I haven't seen that. More like two great offenses that get skill players in space, and watch them gouge out big gains. Oklahoma's pass coverage, and overall pass defense, is probably their worst in many years. Texas' defense seems poorly coached and do not tackle all that well. I know, Charlie Strong is going to take over the defensive play calling. He has made so many coaching changes(scapegoating his staff) that I think the effect of it no longer will carry over to the field.
2* Texas/ Oklahoma- over 73 I know this looks like a high total, but it fits a theory I have about games when 2 offensive giants/ conference rivals play each other. I hit it last week with TCU and Oklahoma, and other games in the past. It seems that even defensive stalwarts like Alabama and Clemson are involved in high scoring games when playing top echelon opponents. Maybe it's that college offenses have progressed to the point that defenses just don't have the personnel to keep up and these manifest themselves more in big games. Many times I regretted NOT playing these overs. Part of this play is that these two offenses got it all- running game and passing attacks that can score in a multitude of ways. Part of it is that Shane Buechele, I think, is underrated. One NFL exec said: He shows a lot of poise, has a nice touch on the ball and has a feel for the game. You would think that in these type of games with rivals that it would be a grind it out, physical game. But I haven't seen that. More like two great offenses that get skill players in space, and watch them gouge out big gains. Oklahoma's pass coverage, and overall pass defense, is probably their worst in many years. Texas' defense seems poorly coached and do not tackle all that well. I know, Charlie Strong is going to take over the defensive play calling. He has made so many coaching changes(scapegoating his staff) that I think the effect of it no longer will carry over to the field.
2* Georgia State/ Texas State- under 62 Georgia State might have one of the largest disparities between their offense and their defense than any team in the country. Their D held Appalachian State to 17 last week, and Wisconsin to 23. They are very physical up front and going back to the last game in 2015, held Ga. Southern to 7 points, and gave up just 286 yards in their bowl game. This is the part of this team that has a lot of pride and keeps them competitive. Their offense is god-awful- just 246 yards per game this year in 4 contests. They run at about 2 yards a clip, and throw many 3-7 yard passes. QB Conner Manning has a 52% completion rate, 3 TDs to 5 ints, and just looks uncomfortable in the pocket. He hasn't been sacked a lot, but he gets rid of the ball so fast, GS has virtually no downfield passing game.
Texas State has had some offensive success in 2 of their games, vs. Incarnate Word(who?) and Ohio. But only 6 total points vs. Houston and Arkansas. And that includes a a lot of garbage time. Texas State lost so many OL to medical retirements, transfers, etc. that in the spring they only had 7 OL on their roster. I say Georgia State's DL eats them up. Georgia State can win this game IF they can limit Tyler Jones, the Texas St. QB. He is probably the only offensive threat on the field Saturday. Texas State's D is not very good, but I think they will at least be able to keep the GS offense to their short game, and burn clock. As I said earlier I can't believe these 2 totals are only 11 points apart.
Texas State has had some offensive success in 2 of their games, vs. Incarnate Word(who?) and Ohio. But only 6 total points vs. Houston and Arkansas. And that includes a a lot of garbage time. Texas State lost so many OL to medical retirements, transfers, etc. that in the spring they only had 7 OL on their roster. I say Georgia State's DL eats them up. Georgia State can win this game IF they can limit Tyler Jones, the Texas St. QB. He is probably the only offensive threat on the field Saturday. Texas State's D is not very good, but I think they will at least be able to keep the GS offense to their short game, and burn clock. As I said earlier I can't believe these 2 totals are only 11 points apart.
4* NC State/ Notre Dame- under 60 (In Raleigh)This game starts in about 15 hours and weather forecasts are generally pretty accurate this close to the event. The rain and wind get heavy right about game time at noon. Winds 15-20, increasing and gusting up to 35. The opening line on this game was about 68, so it's hard to believe that these weather conditions are only going to drop this total 8 points. Grass field will get saturated before the game, and only get worse during.
1* Army/ Duke- under 46 Army runs so well that they might not be that effected too much. Also, even though Durham is only about 22 miles from Raleigh, the conditions won't be quite as bad. But once again, grass field that will get rained on before and during the game. This one starts at 3:30.
Will monitor these tonight to increase or decrease these plays.
1* Army/ Duke- under 46 Army runs so well that they might not be that effected too much. Also, even though Durham is only about 22 miles from Raleigh, the conditions won't be quite as bad. But once again, grass field that will get rained on before and during the game. This one starts at 3:30.
Will monitor these tonight to increase or decrease these plays.
Have flipped to the Rutgers game a few times. Harbaugh should not have ANY 1st or 2 or 3rd stringers in there in the third quarter. The scout team, ball boys, a few cheerleaders and the alumni guy that hangs around too much, can all keep the margin of victory in place. Even the Beavs could beat Rutgers by 14.
