Week 6: Early Plays

ofred · Oct 7, 2015

Wisconsin/ Nebraska : Wisconsin no longer has the dominant OL as in previous years. That's what happens when so many players go off to the NFL, and Melvin Gordon along with them. The Badgers also have a multitude of important injuries on the O…The OL has been reshuffled due to 3-4 injuries there….they are missing their top WR and playmaking TE for this week. Without RB Clement, their running game has been greatly reduced. This is a team that wins by a great D coordinated by Dave Aranda. His players love the schemes and attitude he brings to the unit. Their back 7 might be better than NW and Michigan's. Nebraska also lacks the go-to runner now that Abdullah is gone. QB Armstrong is learning Rileys' new offense which calls for him to stay in the pocket more often- which I think is a mistake.

I watched Mike Riley at OSU for many years, and he was a once great coach that got more out of players than most coaches would. But he is a complete opposite of Bo Pelini. Kind of like Voldemort(Pelini has a resemblance) and Mr. Rogers. Riley's coaching seemed to get stale and behind the times his last few years at OSU. The play calling was predictable and he lacks the motivational oomph to fire up the players. Anyways, I'm a little concerned with Nebraska's defensive injuries. But being at home, with a must win, they should be able to limit the Badgers offense in the state it's in. This game lacks offensive playmakers, and 2 coaches that are somewhat predictable offensively.

ofred · Oct 9, 2015

Square Play of the Week:

Ohio St -33. OSU, I believe, is 1-4 ATS this year, and you can't blame bettors for laying off them. They looked flat vs. Indiana, played in a monsoon vs. NIU, and pulled off the gas vs. Hawaii. But Maryland has far worse problems. Mainly I like this game because Md. has had terrible QB play, a mediocre running game, and a weak D. The team knows that Edsall will be fired, and it seems as if the players are probably okay with it. It's hard to know how much dissension goes on within teams, but the Terps look like they quit in the WV game. WV could have won 70-0 if they hadn't pulled up for the entire 2nd half. The Terps also gave up 700 yards to Bowling Green in the game that seemed to turn this program into a dumpster fire. Their OC, Mike Locksley, is also to blame. His game plans are atrocious, and his players seem undisciplined. After going 2-24 at New Mexico, Edsall hired him?? Both he and Edsall have character issues, and maybe his players are a reflection of that?

The Ohio St. defense vs. a turnover prone Md. offense is another reason to like this. Maryland might score, but I think their offense gives up 2 scores or more, or maybe just great field position a number of times. Ohio St. also has the depth to keep this rout going in the 2nd half if Barrett comes off the bench, and the Terps throw out one of their other dreadful QBs. Remember what the Buckeyes did to a very good Va. Tech defense? If they are at all motivated, this could be a 50 pointer blowout. I have a small play on the -20 1H too.

solrosenberg · Oct 9, 2015

Wisconsin has gone from + 1 1/2 to -2...... Northwestern has gone from +7 to +10..... any injury or suspension news on either of these games?

MoneyMiller · Oct 9, 2015

On Nw & Wazzu myself, lets keep cashing tix o fred

ofred · Oct 10, 2015

sol rosenberg said:
Wisconsin has gone from + 1 1/2 to -2...... Northwestern has gone from +7 to +10..... any injury or suspension news on either of these games?

Nebraska hasn't got much going for it, and at least Wisconsin has a stellar defense. As for NW, late money coming on Michigan, early money was on NW. Ending up about where it started.

ofred · Oct 10, 2015

Ball St. +10. This play is predicated on the belief that NIU is overrated, and has been overrated since last season. Their 11-3 record last year is deceptive. They struggled against some horrible MAC teams- EMU, Miami OH, Kent, , WMU, and lost to CMU. Winning by 10 was not the usual for this team and that was with their star RB Stingly and star WR Brown. I'm not a Drew Hare fan. He has exactly 0 TD passes in his last 3 games, but padded his stats vs. Murray ST and UNLV. The offense has become rather predictable too. Lots of running up the middle. Their old QB, Jordan Lynch, was such a playmaker that he often got their O a needed 3rd down, or score almost at will. NIU's defense is actually their better half, although they benefitted from bad weather in Columbus and and gave up 350 yards to a poor BC offense. They also gave up almost 500 yards to UNLV.

I wouldn't take this play if I didn't think the Ball State team wasn't good and battle tested, which they are on both counts. Ball St. is a veteran team with many offensive weapons, including a couple of elusive backs and a dual threat QB. Riley Neal, their QB, is a freshman, but seems to be one of those kids who never gets nervous. He's played vs. A&M, Northwestern and Toledo without an int. His 60% completion rate is impressive, and his mobility and OL have only allowed 4 sacks. Ball St. could win this game, and it wouldn't surprise me. The line, I think, should be about 4 or 5.

ofred · Oct 10, 2015

Two smaller plays in the SEC:

South Carolina +20. This "supposed" home game will not have the usual festive atmosphere in Baton Rouge with maybe half of Death Valley filled. LSU has gone out of their way to make SC feel like their playing a home game, and it almost feels like a gentleman's game more than a SEC game. LSU has Florida next week and all of the other tough SEC games, after that. I'm not sure they'll have the killer instinct here, as they haven't vs. a Syracuse team with a 3rd string QB, and a terrible EMU team. In fact, going back to last year, they don't have a lot of butt stampings. Probably due to their poor passing attack and loss of many NFL defensive players. I also just HAVE to go against the Leonard Fournette media frenzy. He is the real deal and more, but other than Miss. St, has LSU faced anyone good? SC has talent, and might benefit from leaving the tragic surroundings of SC's floods. They DO play walk on QB Perry Orth, but he's got some experience , seems poised, and what the hell- Spurrier can open up the offense in this huge underdog role. And as for Les Miles, can you make your offense any more vanilla?

Tennessee +3. Georgia is not that good, and I doubt they have emotionally recovered from their ass whipping last week at home. Now they face a Vols team that is expected to self-destruct late. Georgia has a very good running game, an average D, and a passing game that showed their true colors last week. This 3 point spread for a Tenn. team that never wins a big game says a lot. It says they are good enough to almost beat a very tough Florida team on the road, and a better Oklahoma team a few weeks ago. Imagine if they had one break late in those games and won them both? They'd be a 4 to 6 point favorite. Tenn. is playing for their season here and I think they finally get it done.

ofred · Oct 10, 2015

o fred said:
Two smaller plays in the SEC:

South Carolina +20. This "supposed" home game will not have the usual festive atmosphere in Baton Rouge with maybe half of Death Valley filled. LSU has gone out of their way to make SC feel like their playing a home game, and it almost feels like a gentleman's game more than a SEC game. LSU has Florida next week and all of the other tough SEC games, after that. I'm not sure they'll have the killer instinct here, as they haven't vs. a Syracuse team with a 3rd string QB, and a terrible EMU team. In fact, going back to last year, they don't have a lot of butt stampings. Probably due to their poor passing attack and loss of many NFL defensive players. I also just HAVE to go against the Leonard Fournette media frenzy. He is the real deal and more, but other than Miss. St, has LSU faced anyone good? SC has talent, and might benefit from leaving the tragic surroundings of SC's floods. They DO play walk on QB Perry Orth, but he's got some experience , seems poised, and what the hell- Spurrier can open up the offense in this huge underdog role. And as for Les Miles, can you make your offense any more vanilla?

Tennessee +3. Georgia is not that good, and I doubt they have emotionally recovered from their ass whipping last week at home. Now they face a Vols team that is expected to self-destruct late. Georgia has a very good running game, an average D, and a passing game that showed their true colors last week. This 3 point spread for a Tenn. team that never wins a big game says a lot. It says they are good enough to almost beat a very tough Florida team on the road, and a better Oklahoma team a few weeks ago. Imagine if they had one break late in those games and won them both? They'd be a 4 to 6 point favorite. Tenn. is playing for their season here and I think they finally get it done.

Upping the Tenn. game to a regular play.