Week 5 selections plus other goodies

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Wow. I feel like I'll be copying you.

Definitely will play Bama, Arkansas and Purdue. Waiting for Purdue ML. Already laid a chunk down on Illinios. Illini may well get blown out but Penn State hasn't played ANYONE yet (what's new with their occ schedule?).


I'm fading Penn State until they don't cover. Small play here due to ILL porous defense and Williams inconsistent play in big games.
 
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What is the status of UNC's QB, I like the Heels in this spot too. B. Davis returning to South Beach.


<table class="storyHeader" style="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="storyInfo" style="" valign="top">Sep. 21, 2008
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<!-- T10988966 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 09/21/2008 19:18:18 --><!-- sversion: 2 $Updated: johnnyr$ -->[FONT=Arial, Helvetica][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- North Carolina coach Butch Davis says that quarterback T.J. Yates is receiving treatment after spraining his left ankle in the loss to Virginia Tech. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Davis said Sunday that Yates is still being evaluated, but he refused to elaborate further on the severity of the injury. The sophomore was hurt when he was taken down on a sack in the third quarter of the 20-17 loss. He played the next play, but couldn't return afterward. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Yates had thrown for 181 yards and a score before the injury. He left Kenan Stadium briefly for X-rays, which showed no fracture. He watched much of the final quarter while sitting on a training table. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Redshirt freshman Mike Paulus replaced him and threw two interceptions.
[/FONT]








Note: If he doesn't play I'm reducing the play amount.


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What is the status of UNC's QB, I like the Heels in this spot too. B. Davis returning to South Beach.
Few (unconfirmed) reports have Yates done for the season with a fracture in his foot. He's almost certainly out for the Miami game.

Like the Illini as well. Line is ridiculous. I'm actually not so sure Illinois isn't the best team in the Big 11, but even if PSU does prove to be the class of the conference, 2 TDs + is quite a stretch.

Best of luck, Voice.
 

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Thanks, I heard it was just a sprain, the BU made some terrible throws against VA Tech, he cost them the game.
 
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$200 Purdue +3.5 -120
$100 UNC +7.5 -120
$75 Alabama +7 -120
$75 Arkansas +28.5 -120
$75 OKL St. -16.5
$25 Ill +15 -110
$25 Ill +14.5 -110
$25 Fresno St. -6.5 -110
 
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$200 Purdue +3.5 -120: After the choke job 2 weeks ago (due mostly to Tiller's conservative nature with big leads) and a tough gritty win against a gamed CMU squad here comes the Irish. I can't tell you how pleased I was that CMU covered (besides the fact that I wagered on them) this past Saturday. I'm gonna simply say this to you Purdue's offense is superior to that of Sparty and their defense is stingy and opportunstic. These things don't fair well for the Irish.
$100 UNC +7.5 -120: If Yates was playing it would have been $150 at least. I'm now even consdering lowering to 75/50 due to it. Lets play it by ear for now.
$75 Alabama +7 -120: Yes I'm aware of the black out. I'm aware that JP is no Stafford. The question is are you aware that Bama has the better OL/DL lines? That Nick Saban time and time again puts together great defensive gameplans? Georgia may have the more high profile players but Bama has all the tools to contain them. I'll gladly take 7 points in any highly contested SEC game (got unlucky with Auburn +3 last week. Will history repeat itself?)
$75 Arkansas +28.5 -120: Another case of an inflated line due to public perception. Simply put Texas isn't this good and Arkansas isn't this lethargic (they are pretty bad just not this bad).
$75 OKL St. -16.5: One point less from which they covered against Ohio St. OKL St. scores over 40 in this one as they take advantage of Troy's porous defense more so than OSU did.
$25 Ill +15 -110: If Deuce comes to play we may be in store for a big surprise come Saturday. Heard it heard first.
$25 Ill +14.5 -110:
$50 Maryland +11 -105
$25 Fresno St. -6.5 -110: Small bet here as I felt line would go up. Middle attempt is likely in the near future.
$25 TCU +17.5 -110
 
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$200 Purdue +3.5 -120: After the choke job 2 weeks ago (due mostly to Tiller's conservative nature with big leads) and a tough gritty win against a gamed CMU squad here comes the Irish. I can't tell you how pleased I was that CMU covered (besides the fact that I wagered on them) this past Saturday. I'm gonna simply say this to you Purdue's offense is superior to that of Sparty and their defense is stingy and opportunstic. These things don't fair well for the Irish.
$100
$75 Alabama +7 -120: Yes I'm aware of the black out. I'm aware that JP is no Stafford. The question is are you aware that Bama has the better OL/DL lines? That Nick Saban time and time again puts together great defensive gameplans? Georgia may have the more high profile players but Bama has all the tools to contain them. I'll gladly take 7 points in any highly contested SEC game (got unlucky with Auburn +3 last week. Will history repeat itself?)
$75 Arkansas +28.5 -120: Another case of an inflated line due to public perception. Simply put Texas isn't this good and Arkansas isn't this lethargic (they are pretty bad just not this bad).
$75 OKL St. -16.5: One point less from which they covered against Ohio St. OKL St. scores over 40 in this one as they take advantage of Troy's porous defense more so than OSU did.
$25 Ill +15 -110: If Deuce comes to play we may be in store for a big surprise come Saturday. Heard it here first.
$25 Ill +14.5 -110:
$50 Maryland +11 -105
$25 Fresno St. -6.5 -110: Small bet here as I felt line would go up. Middle attempt is likely in the near future.
$25 TCU +17.5 -110
$25 UNC +7.5 -120

Buying back
$75: "U" +7.5 +100: This now makes UNC a mere $25 play
 

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$200 Purdue +3.5 -120: After the choke job 2 weeks ago (due mostly to Tiller's conservative nature with big leads) and a tough gritty win against a gamed CMU squad here comes the Irish. I can't tell you how pleased I was that CMU covered (besides the fact that I wagered on them) this past Saturday. I'm gonna simply say this to you Purdue's offense is superior to that of Sparty and their defense is stingy and opportunstic. These things don't fair well for the Irish.
$100 UNC +7.5 -120: If Yates was playing it would have been $150 at least. I'm now even consdering lowering to 75/50 due to it. Lets play it by ear for now.
$75 Alabama +7 -120: Yes I'm aware of the black out. I'm aware that JP is no Stafford. The question is are you aware that Bama has the better OL/DL lines? That Nick Saban time and time again puts together great defensive gameplans? Georgia may have the more high profile players but Bama has all the tools to contain them. I'll gladly take 7 points in any highly contested SEC game (got unlucky with Auburn +3 last week. Will history repeat itself?)
$75 Arkansas +28.5 -120: Another case of an inflated line due to public perception. Simply put Texas isn't this good and Arkansas isn't this lethargic (they are pretty bad just not this bad).
$75 OKL St. -16.5: One point less from which they covered against Ohio St. OKL St. scores over 40 in this one as they take advantage of Troy's porous defense more so than OSU did.
$25 Ill +15 -110: If Deuce comes to play we may be in store for a big surprise come Saturday. Heard it heard first.
$25 Ill +14.5 -110:
$50 Maryland +11 -105
$25 Fresno St. -6.5 -110: Small bet here as I felt line would go up. Middle attempt is likely in the near future.
$25 TCU +17.5 -110
I don't even see how you can say Alabama has a better DL line then Georgia. Georgia is only giving up 42 yards on the ground per game and scoring defense in the top 20. Alabama rushed for over 300 yards in the Arkansas game....so obviously something will have to give. Georgia faced a much tougher defense went they went in to Columbia to face South Carolina so its not like Georgia hasn't faced a tough D this year. The offense has obviously way more talent then Alabama so Georgia has an advantage there too.

I know its been discussed but don't underestimate the black out/first ESPN Game Day in Athens since 1998/sky high expectations. I personally think Bama is about to be exposed and is a year away from being a real contender. Georgia by 10.
 
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I don't even see how you can say Alabama has a better DL line then Georgia. Georgia is only giving up 42 yards on the ground per game and scoring defense in the top 20. Alabama rushed for over 300 yards in the Arkansas game....so obviously something will have to give. Georgia faced a much tougher defense went they went in to Columbia to face South Carolina so its not like Georgia hasn't faced a tough D this year. The offense has obviously way more talent then Alabama so Georgia has an advantage there too.

I know its been discussed but don't underestimate the black out/first ESPN Game Day in Athens since 1998/sky high expectations. I personally think Bama is about to be exposed and is a year away from being a real contender. Georgia by 10.


I think both teams are pretty stout against the run. Would I give the edge to Bama mostly is their ability to get a more consistent push on the QB. Their is line is more talented IMHO than GA's. This obviously can be debated and like you said we'll find out Saturday night.
 
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GL voiceofreason...


Thank you pags. Tough luck with Yates being out. I really liked that passing game against the "U"'s secondary.

Glad to see myself, GS, and yourself agree on OKL St.

Hope you have great success come Saturday my friend.
 
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More extensive writeups and some added plays

$200 Purdue +3.5 -120: After the choke job 2 weeks ago (due mostly to Tiller's conservative nature with big leads) and a tough gritty win against a gamed CMU squad here comes the Irish. I can't tell you how pleased I was that CMU covered (besides the fact that I wagered on them) this past Saturday. This is the reason why the line opened with a silly +3 on it. Bottom line Purdue beats Notre Dame 3 out 5. 4/5 out of 7 by my numbers. They're Offense in my mind is light years ahead of ND and the defenses are almost even (slight edge to ND at best). I think Tiller is a hindrance for he has a tendency to take off the foot from the gas petal when he gets comfortable. Thats the problem I have with Tiller he gets comfortable. Instead of ripping the opponents heart out he delivers a freaking bouquet wrapped with delicious delicacies. It's pretty apparent I'm not a big fan of Tiller nevertheless I for see them being a much better overall team than the Irish. While MSU possessed a great running game with Ringer I think Purdue's offense is even more potent with a formidable running game (see Sheets) and one of the most accurate QB's in the country. I think Painter won't disappoint in this game my fellow Rx'ers. With Sheets I think ND will sometimes bite on the stop the run first mentality and Painter is one QB I'm pretty confident with to execute plays with ease. Lets see how the chips fall on Saturday. Should be an intriguing game to watch....
$75 Alabama +7 -120: Yes I'm aware of the black out. I'm aware that JP is no Stafford. The question is are you aware that Bama has the better OL/DL lines? I'm aware GA has been tough against the run but they have lacked a consistent pass rush ala Alabama hence me giving Bama the edge on DL. OL is not even close really not when you take into account of Bama's overwhelming left side. I think Saban will take chances offensively well knowing his running game will be set up with the pass and not the other way around. So expect some play action and quick hits too loosen up GA defense. I think he'll use Jones more so in this game than he has in any other game. It comes down to JP's accuracy down the field. If he is able to connect on the few occasions that present themselves I think Bama might even pull out a win. I'm not going to say GA offensive line is as bad as that of Clemson but I don't see how this O-Line wins the majority of the wars up front. Naturally Richt is pretty aware of his team weaknesses and does good job of disguising them with well schemed plays that enable the opponent to capitalize. Now in this game he's going against a master schemer in his own right in Saban and he has all the pieces or as I like to say tools in order match Richt step for step. 7 points is a number I feel gets covered in this game 70% of the time. Its my way of capping playing best out of 5/7/10 scenarios in my head and if its a 60/70% thing I'll more than likely play it. I know people love to doubt JP and for good reason to be honest but something tells me he'll be up for this one. Beware Dawgies Bama might just roll.
$75 Arkansas +28.5 -120: Another case of an inflated line due to public perception. Simply put Texas isn't this good and Arkansas isn't this lethargic (they are pretty bad just not this bad).
$75 OKL St. -16.5: One point less from which they covered against Ohio St. OKL St. scores over 40 in this one as they take advantage of Troy's porous defense more so than OSU did. Simply put Troy hasn't seen an offense like OKL St. and quite honestly they won't for the rest of they year. I'm 40 will score 40 (at least) :drink:
$25 Ill +15 -110: If Juice (I got it right this time) comes to play we may be in store for a big surprise come Saturday. Heard it here first.
$25 Ill +14.5 -110: And yes I'm aware its a White House or White out or whatever the hell you Lions like to call it.
$50 Maryland +11 -105: I was heavy on the Terps a few weeks back against CAL and don't see why they don't cover this spread. Talent wise I don't see as much of a gap as the number indicates hence my wager.
$25: UNC +7.5 -110: Yates plays UNC wins 3 out 5 times against the "U". This would had been a biggie if Yates had played. $150 was very plausible
$25 Fresno St. -6.5 -110: Small bet here as I felt line would go up. Middle attempt is likely in the near future.
$25 Toledo -17.5 -110: FIU's inability to move the ball consistently has been a major problem for them and that's not such a good thing going against this pretty high flying opponent.
$25 TCU +17.5 -110: Too many points for a stout D like TCU's. The revenge angle as GS likes to say is way overblown and I can't agree more. It all comes down to match ups and coaching. I think TCU has the horses to run with OKL come Saturday and this game will be a lot closer than what many will predict.


more to come......


Leans on: Navy, KSU , FSU, and suckeyes plus some others
 

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Good luck this week vor.I would like to hear your thoughts on why you dont think miami will cover.

It is definite yates is out and carolina will either start a red shirt freshmen or a junior with very little experience this saturday.

I was going big on miami but would like to hear your thoughts

thanks and good luck
 
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Good luck this week vor.I would like to hear your thoughts on why you dont think miami will cover.

It is definite yates is out and carolina will either start a red shirt freshmen or a junior with very little experience this saturday.

I was going big on miami but would like to hear your thoughts

thanks and good luck


With Yates I think the right number would have been -4.5 at most. This is an inflated line due to Miami's perception of being "back". Miami isn't "back" yet. In reality our defense has been exposed against the pass on several occasions something UNC does efficiently when Yates is in. I think they pose some serious threats with their wideouts that Miami will have difficulty countering. UNC offensive line is also good enough to keep their QB upright for the most part unless Miami blitzes which they will. Thing is Davis and company are very aware of this and like I said they have weapons to counter all Miami throws at them. Defensively UNC has the bigs to contain Miami's running attack. I don't see Cooper running wild in this one like he did against a porous Aggie defense. This will then put all the pressure on Marve and I just don't see him ready yet to convert consistently on 3rd down and 5,6,7 etc. Don't get me wrong Marve has all the tools to be great but he isn't great yet. Having said all this, Yates is out and I simply can't invest money on signal callers that I have not seen.


GL
 

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hey miami boy- just so you know. its gonna be mike paulus at the helms most likely for my tarheels come saturday. yes, he is a redshirt freshman and yes he did sort of blow the game for us saturday, but it wasn't his fault. anyone that completely blames him is an idiot. our d had countless 3rd down penalties that kept vt's drives alive. cam sexton is the other qb, he is a senior btw, not a junior. he's not very good, paulus is better. got a feeling we'll be doing a lot of quick slants and screens with all the blitzin. should be a good one. i think the heels can hang.
 

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