1* Houston/ UConn- under 28 1H Part of this play is that UConn moves the ball so slowly down the field..short pass, run, run , short pass, etc. Their offense isn't bad, it's just like a bus moving at 5 mph. They eat up a lot of clock, and I can see them with a couple of clock eating drives ending in FGs or maybe nothing. Houston, meanwhile, has a vastly underrated defense. Everyone knows Ward is the star, but it's actually their defense that deserves equal billing. So I think UConn will have a tough time moving the ball, but even their punts will give their defense a chance making Houston go a long way to a score. Ward has run the ball 51 times this year, but only for a 2.2 average. That's a lot of carries for any QB, and actually Houston runs the ball often. This can also help the under as UConn still has a decent defense, and the clock will run. UConn is in trouble tonight because of the fact they gave the Cougars their only loss last year, but also know their defense gives their best chance at keeping the score manageable.
That Houston play looked great for 1Q at 0-0, but then…my bad luck continues on the 1*.
2* La. Tech -19.5
2* La. Tech -11 1H
I'm always trying to find a play where there might be an outlier of some kind among college football teams. This game fits that angle for both teams. UTEP might have the worst QB play in the FBS so far. A passing game that in the last 3 games has produced just 350 yards total(that's about 117 per game), 8 sacks, 1 TD and 3 picks. And that was against Army, S. Miss, and Texas- not exactly passing defenses that scare anyone. UTEP relies almost totally on RB Aaron Jones. Jones is a good one, but defenses are keying on him, reducing his effectiveness. Last week, after a 68 yard run, S.Miss loaded the box and pretty much limited him to 3-4 yards per carry after that. Now La. Tech has a weakness, although after playing pass-happy Texas Tech and MTSU, it's probably not as bad a weakness as the stats show. Their pass defense will face a team that has a very poor passing offense. This, after being embarrassed 2 weeks in a row, and now finally coming home. I think their D will play better than the talent usually allows.
La. Tech will also be motivated, and not just their defense. With a 1-3 record(they lost by one at Arkansas in which they played excellent D), they face conference championship elimination, and possibly bowl elimination. Best of all, they might actually be better offensively even after losing NFL DC Kenneth Dixon and QB Jeff Driskel. They got it all, scoring 43 points per game their last 3 games. This is their best OL in the last few years, they have a mobile QB in Ryan Higgins who has a 10-2 TD- int. ratio and at a 63% completion rate. LT also carries two go-to veteran receivers, Trent Taylor being the one who should go middle rounds in next year's draft, and Carlos Henderson, who is almost as good, but faster. Their two RBs are also at a 6.3 and 8.7 ypc average. Both players, Craft and Boston are also threats as receivers and excellent blockers. This is a complete offense that UTEP can't handle. This is a 1-3 team that needs a win, and finally gets to play an offense that is one dimensional and struggles to even get a 3rd down converted. I'm taking LT 1H too because they did this at least 4 times last year- came out strong early and coasting to a 25-35 point victory by the end of the game.
2* La. Tech -19.5
2* La. Tech -11 1H
I'm always trying to find a play where there might be an outlier of some kind among college football teams. This game fits that angle for both teams. UTEP might have the worst QB play in the FBS so far. A passing game that in the last 3 games has produced just 350 yards total(that's about 117 per game), 8 sacks, 1 TD and 3 picks. And that was against Army, S. Miss, and Texas- not exactly passing defenses that scare anyone. UTEP relies almost totally on RB Aaron Jones. Jones is a good one, but defenses are keying on him, reducing his effectiveness. Last week, after a 68 yard run, S.Miss loaded the box and pretty much limited him to 3-4 yards per carry after that. Now La. Tech has a weakness, although after playing pass-happy Texas Tech and MTSU, it's probably not as bad a weakness as the stats show. Their pass defense will face a team that has a very poor passing offense. This, after being embarrassed 2 weeks in a row, and now finally coming home. I think their D will play better than the talent usually allows.
La. Tech will also be motivated, and not just their defense. With a 1-3 record(they lost by one at Arkansas in which they played excellent D), they face conference championship elimination, and possibly bowl elimination. Best of all, they might actually be better offensively even after losing NFL DC Kenneth Dixon and QB Jeff Driskel. They got it all, scoring 43 points per game their last 3 games. This is their best OL in the last few years, they have a mobile QB in Ryan Higgins who has a 10-2 TD- int. ratio and at a 63% completion rate. LT also carries two go-to veteran receivers, Trent Taylor being the one who should go middle rounds in next year's draft, and Carlos Henderson, who is almost as good, but faster. Their two RBs are also at a 6.3 and 8.7 ypc average. Both players, Craft and Boston are also threats as receivers and excellent blockers. This is a complete offense that UTEP can't handle. This is a 1-3 team that needs a win, and finally gets to play an offense that is one dimensional and struggles to even get a 3rd down converted. I'm taking LT 1H too because they did this at least 4 times last year- came out strong early and coasting to a 25-35 point victory by the end of the game.
2* SMU/ Temple- under 52.5 Temple and SMU will both stay conservative offensively for various reasons. SMU had to replace starting QB, Matt Davis, who was a decent dual threat, with Ben Hicks. Hicks is a severe downgrade, a QB with 7 interceptions to 2 TDs, with a lot of sacks and isn't too mobile in the pocket. SMU will run often to keep Hicks from turning the ball over. They're run game is decent and they'll burn clock while trying to keep the game from getting out of hand. SMU has had to play TCU and Baylor, holding both to 6 points in the 1H. Their defense is improved, but eventually they couldn't keep those 2 offensive juggernauts from scoring for 4 quarters. Temple, they can manage.
Temple always seems to drive down the field, slowly and methodically. They also run the ball often, but not all that well. Their QB, Phillip Walker, has a bum shoulder, but is playing through it, trying to dump off quicker passes to avoid the sack which could injure him more. Temple's backup QB is a freshman who does not seem ready. Temple returns 6 of their top 8 tacklers from last year, and although their D seems a little down from last year's outstanding squad, I think they can handle SMU. I don't see a lot of electric playmakers on the field for these 2 teams, or too many shots down the field. SMU's secondary already has 10 interceptions on the year, which can shut down a drive in the red zone or create a pick six scoring opportunity. For SMU, it's been more of the former. I would have pegged this total at mid-40s, so it's a nice play at 52.5.
Temple always seems to drive down the field, slowly and methodically. They also run the ball often, but not all that well. Their QB, Phillip Walker, has a bum shoulder, but is playing through it, trying to dump off quicker passes to avoid the sack which could injure him more. Temple's backup QB is a freshman who does not seem ready. Temple returns 6 of their top 8 tacklers from last year, and although their D seems a little down from last year's outstanding squad, I think they can handle SMU. I don't see a lot of electric playmakers on the field for these 2 teams, or too many shots down the field. SMU's secondary already has 10 interceptions on the year, which can shut down a drive in the red zone or create a pick six scoring opportunity. For SMU, it's been more of the former. I would have pegged this total at mid-40s, so it's a nice play at 52.5.
2* BC/ Buffalo- under 38.5 This has to be the lowest total on the board. For good reason. Even if it wasn't going to be wet and windy in Boston tomorrow, this line would be close to 40 or 41. Both of these teams are very run heavy offenses, and that will only be more true tomorrow in mid-50s, rainy, windy weather. I'm not sure how Buffalo will score. BC needs a win badly, and despite their butt kicking against a much improved VT offense, their defense has played well. Buffalo's QB is freshman Tyree Jackson, who has only completed 41 passes this year for 433 yards. He is "in training", and though he's a scrambler and a runner, the Buffalo OL doesn't give him much room to run or much time to pass. In fact, this Buffalo offense is almost completely brand new, having to replace much of their OL, their top 2 WRs, a pretty QB in Joe Licata, and their top RB. Buffalo's defense, though, returns 8-9 players, and has been very tough vs. the pass and mediocre on the run. BC will likely run the ball 70% of the time, and at least Buffalo can focus on BC's run game.
Boston College seems almost like a mirror image of last year's team. They win or compete with a tough D and a running game, but still unable to have much if any downfield passing game. They have 162 runs this year to 88 passes. Their ypr is 4.2, which isn't bad, but is definitely not a game breaking kind of running game. Other than one 73 yard run, their next longest run is only 26 yards. I like the clock running part of this game with 2 inept offenses(although BC's will have some success), in poor weather, and short passes likely the only alternative to the run games. Steve Addazio, the BC coach, is about as predictable and cautious as a HC can be in the FBS. Here, he takes the much needed win by counting on his defense and a plodding running game.
Boston College seems almost like a mirror image of last year's team. They win or compete with a tough D and a running game, but still unable to have much if any downfield passing game. They have 162 runs this year to 88 passes. Their ypr is 4.2, which isn't bad, but is definitely not a game breaking kind of running game. Other than one 73 yard run, their next longest run is only 26 yards. I like the clock running part of this game with 2 inept offenses(although BC's will have some success), in poor weather, and short passes likely the only alternative to the run games. Steve Addazio, the BC coach, is about as predictable and cautious as a HC can be in the FBS. Here, he takes the much needed win by counting on his defense and a plodding running game.
2* Oklahoma/ TCU- over 69.5 This contest couldn't be any different than BC/ Buffalo. One of the angles I like here is that TCU seems to have this reputation of always putting a good defense on the field. Well, possibly not this year, and definitely not last year. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach, and can usually coach his guys up, but from what I can tell, he has recruited much better on the offensive side of the ball than the defensive side. Last year, they had lots of injuries on the D, but little depth. This year they gave up 41 to both South Dakota and Arkansas, and then held Iowa State to 20 points and 355 yards.. following that with 3 to SMU(see my write-up about the SMU offense on an earlier play). And another angle I like is that Oklahoma's defense isn't any better. Their defensive personnel is a bad fit for the type of defense they're running. They aren't as talented as last year's D, and the secondary just can't cover man to man, and the LBs don't seem to have the speed or size to stop a running game/ rush the passer.
I also like how in games like this, with two of the better teams of a conference, that the scoring seems to inflate over typical games. Maybe it's because the OCs open up the playbook, knowing they can't count on defensive stops to win, and knowing the other team will likely put 35+ on the board so they better keep up. I also like over the total when 2 good dual threat QBs go at it, and playmakers seem to feed off of the excitement of the game. Both TCU and Oklahoma can run and pass well, and this is one game where their running backs will likely increase the score instead of run off clock with little to show for it. Stoops has been criticized(fairly) for the Sooners start of 1-2, but considering they've played 2 excellent Ds in OSU and Houston, I think he and his team respond well here. They usually do. Good weather expected, and at the end of the day, two tired defenses.
I also like how in games like this, with two of the better teams of a conference, that the scoring seems to inflate over typical games. Maybe it's because the OCs open up the playbook, knowing they can't count on defensive stops to win, and knowing the other team will likely put 35+ on the board so they better keep up. I also like over the total when 2 good dual threat QBs go at it, and playmakers seem to feed off of the excitement of the game. Both TCU and Oklahoma can run and pass well, and this is one game where their running backs will likely increase the score instead of run off clock with little to show for it. Stoops has been criticized(fairly) for the Sooners start of 1-2, but considering they've played 2 excellent Ds in OSU and Houston, I think he and his team respond well here. They usually do. Good weather expected, and at the end of the day, two tired defenses.
Should have kept UW at 5* instead of 3*. My instincts were right, but my nerve weakened. Damn Stanford! Their running prowess psyched me out.
2* Utah State +21.5 I am really tempted to make this a larger play. I've seen Boise play quite a bit vs. Oregon State and Wazzu. They just aren't the same Boise. The defense especially. Last week, they looked almost ready to give up their huge lead vs, the Beavs when they returned a fumble for a 4th qtr. score. The defense looks a step slow, and if the Beavers had ANY OL or running game, the 1st half would have been closer. Boise also turns the ball over way too much. Much of that is on QB Rypien. He takes too many risks passing into tight spots and hangs on to the ball too loosely when in the pocket. Utah St. had so many TOs last year vs. Boise for a reason.
I have not been a fan of Utah State because they don't recruit particularly well, and most of their defensive studs have moved on. But Kent Myers is a legit dual threat and that includes pretty good passing skills. I just can't see Boise covering this ridiculous spread. Too much of this large spread is based on revenge(which usually is a weak ats play) and the fact that Boise has this reputation of winning every game by 40 points. 17 points is a decent spread, 21.5 is a gift. USU held Air Force's vaunted running game in check last week, and I think they'll concentrate on stopping McNichols from running wild. Rypien might have a good game passing for 300+ yards, but he will likely turn it over a few times too.
2* Utah State +21.5 I am really tempted to make this a larger play. I've seen Boise play quite a bit vs. Oregon State and Wazzu. They just aren't the same Boise. The defense especially. Last week, they looked almost ready to give up their huge lead vs, the Beavs when they returned a fumble for a 4th qtr. score. The defense looks a step slow, and if the Beavers had ANY OL or running game, the 1st half would have been closer. Boise also turns the ball over way too much. Much of that is on QB Rypien. He takes too many risks passing into tight spots and hangs on to the ball too loosely when in the pocket. Utah St. had so many TOs last year vs. Boise for a reason.
I have not been a fan of Utah State because they don't recruit particularly well, and most of their defensive studs have moved on. But Kent Myers is a legit dual threat and that includes pretty good passing skills. I just can't see Boise covering this ridiculous spread. Too much of this large spread is based on revenge(which usually is a weak ats play) and the fact that Boise has this reputation of winning every game by 40 points. 17 points is a decent spread, 21.5 is a gift. USU held Air Force's vaunted running game in check last week, and I think they'll concentrate on stopping McNichols from running wild. Rypien might have a good game passing for 300+ yards, but he will likely turn it over a few times too.
1* Texas A&M -19 Lousy spread considering where this was earlier in the week. But SC doesn't do anything well offensively and I think it'll create scoring opportunities for A&M. SC also hasn't faced a defense like this yet. A&M underrated offensively and I don't think they'll have a letdown considering what's at stake in their hopes for a top 4 spot in the playoff.
