GoSooners, the main thing that has consumed this conference up to now is how the favorites are winning the games they are supposed to win but not looking the least bit convincing in the process. As a matter of fact that issue has infected most of the top teams in the game save for ATM and ummmm (slips my mind.) In the west Utah has carried their new found torch but I already addressed that issue earlier in this thread regarding a healthy Travis Wilson.
Personally, my biggest surprise this year has been the play of the Cal Bears and their sophomore coach Sonny Dykes who has looked like he's worth every penny (or at least most every penny) of the 3.5 mil he's being paid. They've been gold at the cashier's window this year too. I see no reason why that shouldn't keep up. Joe P. Lagginoff and rest of the public drunks won't catch onto them all too soon either... a definite maybe to be sure. That's what this thread is all about... keeping up with the changes. I'm sure glad of one thing though. With all of these inter-conference games behind us and league play now in full swing, we are guaranteed an ATS winner from the Pac in every game.
Couldn't claim that before eh? Anyway not too well or too often. That's where this thread started isn't it? Perhaps that's where it will be going too.
But I can't see myself other than remaining curious to see if any of the chalk that's barely squeaked by with a win will keep winning but coming up short at the cashier's window. So to make a long story short, that's about what i believe we'll see at ASU this week... another ugly win for the Bruins and maybe the sharps cashing in their Sun Devil wagers. Not that I'm trying to be a big prognosticator here, just expecting more par for the course. (Except in the case of Utah and Cal.)
But surely you caught the tail end of the "Cal-zona" entree on the Pac-12 menu last week. Yes? This one is worth posting up a link.
To set this one up, Anu Soloman, RR's RS sophomore QB threw for 520 yards to beat out Cal's Jeff Goff who turned in a 380 yard aerial performance himself. Cal carrying a 22 point lead into the 4th quarter didn't prove to be enough as the wildcats dashed Cal's hopes of winning their first league game in 2 years under their HC Sonny Dykes.
However the major stat in this one was Arizona scoring 36 in the 4th vs the hapless Cal Bears to win the game. Yes, you read right, Arizona needed to score 36 points in the 4th quarter to win the game and they did just that. Iff that wasn't enough by itself to make the finish of this one memorable, the game was decided a hail Mary TD pass launched high in the air to Soloman's receiver Austin Hill in the corner of the end zone to win it for the Wildcats on the last play of the game.
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Personally, my biggest surprise this year has been the play of the Cal Bears and their sophomore coach Sonny Dykes who has looked like he's worth every penny (or at least most every penny) of the 3.5 mil he's being paid. They've been gold at the cashier's window this year too. I see no reason why that shouldn't keep up. Joe P. Lagginoff and rest of the public drunks won't catch onto them all too soon either... a definite maybe to be sure. That's what this thread is all about... keeping up with the changes. I'm sure glad of one thing though. With all of these inter-conference games behind us and league play now in full swing, we are guaranteed an ATS winner from the Pac in every game.
Couldn't claim that before eh? Anyway not too well or too often. That's where this thread started isn't it? Perhaps that's where it will be going too.
But I can't see myself other than remaining curious to see if any of the chalk that's barely squeaked by with a win will keep winning but coming up short at the cashier's window. So to make a long story short, that's about what i believe we'll see at ASU this week... another ugly win for the Bruins and maybe the sharps cashing in their Sun Devil wagers. Not that I'm trying to be a big prognosticator here, just expecting more par for the course. (Except in the case of Utah and Cal.)
But surely you caught the tail end of the "Cal-zona" entree on the Pac-12 menu last week. Yes? This one is worth posting up a link.
To set this one up, Anu Soloman, RR's RS sophomore QB threw for 520 yards to beat out Cal's Jeff Goff who turned in a 380 yard aerial performance himself. Cal carrying a 22 point lead into the 4th quarter didn't prove to be enough as the wildcats dashed Cal's hopes of winning their first league game in 2 years under their HC Sonny Dykes.
However the major stat in this one was Arizona scoring 36 in the 4th vs the hapless Cal Bears to win the game. Yes, you read right, Arizona needed to score 36 points in the 4th quarter to win the game and they did just that. Iff that wasn't enough by itself to make the finish of this one memorable, the game was decided a hail Mary TD pass launched high in the air to Soloman's receiver Austin Hill in the corner of the end zone to win it for the Wildcats on the last play of the game.
Bercovici is going to be asked to distribute the ball. They'll want to run the ball a bit more with DJ and the others and when they do try to throw the ball it will be outside the hashes to Strong or to a back out of the backfield.
My concern is the ASU defense against Neuheisel and here's why. The second half of that UCLA game Slick Rick looked really poised. Of note, the ball came out of his hand pretty easily and he took far fewer sacks than Hundley. Those sacks by Hundley constantly keeps UCLA in long yardage situations. If the ball continues to come out quick and UCLA cant get to Neuheisel, it might allow their play action game (off the run) to expose a porous ASU secondary and run defense. Honestly the best thing for ASU might be having Hundley play. I do agree with GS though, if it's Neuheisel then UNDER might be the play
I luv the way the game sets up! However, # 10 UCLA at # 12 "Zona State is not going to be a Pac-12 South decider but it is a nice start. Mora is being very tight-lipped about the condition of Hundley, who suffers from a hyper extended left elbow. Sure Jerry Neuheisel came in the game at Texas to toss the winning touchdown in a 20-17 victory and then being hosted on to the shoulders of some big lineman and paraded around Memorial Stadium in Austin. Okay, the Bruins might be looking at this game as some sort of vengeance who lost to the Sun Devils in the Rose Bowl last season, 33-38. Those boyz from Arizona have enough skilled weapons on offense and enough play makers on defense to make life miserable for the guys from Westwood. I feel that the comments that Todd Graham has already gotten into the head of Jim Mora and his game scheme will predominate for the outright win!
The Bruins rank last in the Pac-12 in sacks so I feel like Bercovici will not be hurried or rushed excessively. I bet the lines at Bovada where Arizona State is now getting 4 1/2 points and the over / under is 60 1/2. I have bet the under and have taken Arizona State plus the points. Just before the kickoff I will also bang out a 2-team parlay at whatever the betting line is then.
The Bruins rank last in the Pac-12 in sacks so I feel like Bercovici will not be hurried or rushed excessively. I bet the lines at Bovada where Arizona State is now getting 4 1/2 points and the over / under is 60 1/2. I have bet the under and have taken Arizona State plus the points. Just before the kickoff I will also bang out a 2-team parlay at whatever the betting line is then.
We be bad, I too like the way the game sets up.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Hundley is a lot closer to either starting or putting in a lot more playing time than we have been led to believe. Whether or not that's true isn't as important as the fact that either way you cut it, no one who ranked UCLA close to how the pundits had them ranked earlier in the year can say they have played as much as just a shadow of what was expected. As a team, the Bruins have looked like they were skating on thin ice and moments from catastrophe in every game thus far. On top of that, the way Hundley has played even when he was at his best... how is it possible that he can still be considered the #2 QB behind Mariota in the conference? The difference between them so far this year resembles a gap that rivals the Grand Canyon. These are hardly exaggerations. Furthermore, Mariota gets sacked 5 times in a game and it's "hold the presses, a big story to print on page 1 in the sports section." (or should that be hold the pixels?) Hundley gets sacked a dozen times so far this season and it's hardly even considered to be front page news at all. 88 sacks the last 2 years and his OL is about on par for the course. All of the above certainly knocks a lot of wind out of the sales for the Bruins returning all those starters. You see, the Bruins probably have about 8 or 9 players that could have been seen as starters to one degree or another... just from last year. (insert starting UCLA OL joke)
It could easily be that the Bruins woes stem from how poorly their OL has performed up to now which isn't any sort of news by a long shot. It seems like that's been the team's biggest downfall for something close to a decade. Somewhere in the vicinity that also includes Kevin Prince, UCLA'S QB who's face was broken at the end of the game at Tennessee in 2009. (aka "smashmouth" football, just ask Ferris Bueller or Willie Lyles about smashmouth football in the once upon a time famous Neyland Stadium.)
This year for some reason, returning every starter on their OL but one has meant practically nothing. Why? The answer could scare anyone that considers himself a Bruin fan. Keep in mind that at the end of 2013 the number of Bruins with starting experience on their OL actually outnumbered the total of non-starters. At one point near mid-season last year there were 11 different players that had started one game or more on UCLA's OL and 8 of them were freshmen out of which only a couple of those had worn a RS the previous year. All of this information about UCLA's OL might seem like news to many people and I certainly took all the preseason hoopla in stride like many who did the same, kool-aid et, al. However to forgetful me, insofar as UCLA is concerned, it has also been the continuing saga of one tragedy after the next.
Last year it was UCLA's 3 true freshmen starting on their OL plus Xavier Su'a Fila who now plays on Sundays. This year it's 3 true sophomores minus Su'a Fil'a. What's the difference I ask? Their OL still tops the conference and most of CFB in sacks allowed once again. And as I was saying, if Hundley plays and he's the 2nd best QB in the Pac, then neither me nor anyone else here has a clue about him nor anything much to speak of about UCLA's offensive line. Say what you will about Todd Graham's defense, but I really think the most telling of all things in this game and the most consistent of all things is the play or lack of it regarding the Bruins offensive line. We also heard plenty about how ASU is replacing a lot of their defense this season, so be it. I still like how tenacious they have been since Graham got there. They may be lacking in experience but I really think they will go out there to bust some heads... you know... some of that smashmouth stuff that Tennessee used to save for just the Bruins -- perhaps because it works when a team is on the outs like the Bruin's OL has been for a very long time. They're down so kick them while they are there for godsakes!
Lastly, UCLA has resembled a drunk on ice skates by the way they've played. They have looked typical of the rest of the league and could be considered the Pac-12 poster child in the weeks leading up to this Saturday's road trip to Tempe. I think that if UCLA has looked like a team about to stumble, this game is as good as any for something like that to happen.
So gimme 5 points and I'll go with the home dog.
(another Pac-12 tradition)
I have a sneaking suspicion that Hundley is a lot closer to either starting or putting in a lot more playing time than we have been led to believe. Whether or not that's true isn't as important as the fact that either way you cut it, no one who ranked UCLA close to how the pundits had them ranked earlier in the year can say they have played as much as just a shadow of what was expected. As a team, the Bruins have looked like they were skating on thin ice and moments from catastrophe in every game thus far. On top of that, the way Hundley has played even when he was at his best... how is it possible that he can still be considered the #2 QB behind Mariota in the conference? The difference between them so far this year resembles a gap that rivals the Grand Canyon. These are hardly exaggerations. Furthermore, Mariota gets sacked 5 times in a game and it's "hold the presses, a big story to print on page 1 in the sports section." (or should that be hold the pixels?) Hundley gets sacked a dozen times so far this season and it's hardly even considered to be front page news at all. 88 sacks the last 2 years and his OL is about on par for the course. All of the above certainly knocks a lot of wind out of the sales for the Bruins returning all those starters. You see, the Bruins probably have about 8 or 9 players that could have been seen as starters to one degree or another... just from last year. (insert starting UCLA OL joke)
It could easily be that the Bruins woes stem from how poorly their OL has performed up to now which isn't any sort of news by a long shot. It seems like that's been the team's biggest downfall for something close to a decade. Somewhere in the vicinity that also includes Kevin Prince, UCLA'S QB who's face was broken at the end of the game at Tennessee in 2009. (aka "smashmouth" football, just ask Ferris Bueller or Willie Lyles about smashmouth football in the once upon a time famous Neyland Stadium.)
This year for some reason, returning every starter on their OL but one has meant practically nothing. Why? The answer could scare anyone that considers himself a Bruin fan. Keep in mind that at the end of 2013 the number of Bruins with starting experience on their OL actually outnumbered the total of non-starters. At one point near mid-season last year there were 11 different players that had started one game or more on UCLA's OL and 8 of them were freshmen out of which only a couple of those had worn a RS the previous year. All of this information about UCLA's OL might seem like news to many people and I certainly took all the preseason hoopla in stride like many who did the same, kool-aid et, al. However to forgetful me, insofar as UCLA is concerned, it has also been the continuing saga of one tragedy after the next.
Last year it was UCLA's 3 true freshmen starting on their OL plus Xavier Su'a Fila who now plays on Sundays. This year it's 3 true sophomores minus Su'a Fil'a. What's the difference I ask? Their OL still tops the conference and most of CFB in sacks allowed once again. And as I was saying, if Hundley plays and he's the 2nd best QB in the Pac, then neither me nor anyone else here has a clue about him nor anything much to speak of about UCLA's offensive line. Say what you will about Todd Graham's defense, but I really think the most telling of all things in this game and the most consistent of all things is the play or lack of it regarding the Bruins offensive line. We also heard plenty about how ASU is replacing a lot of their defense this season, so be it. I still like how tenacious they have been since Graham got there. They may be lacking in experience but I really think they will go out there to bust some heads... you know... some of that smashmouth stuff that Tennessee used to save for just the Bruins -- perhaps because it works when a team is on the outs like the Bruin's OL has been for a very long time. They're down so kick them while they are there for godsakes!
Lastly, UCLA has resembled a drunk on ice skates by the way they've played. They have looked typical of the rest of the league and could be considered the Pac-12 poster child in the weeks leading up to this Saturday's road trip to Tempe. I think that if UCLA has looked like a team about to stumble, this game is as good as any for something like that to happen.
So gimme 5 points and I'll go with the home dog.
(another Pac-12 tradition)
With respect to Hundley, it was his non-throwing elbow if I am not mistaken. So as you say, he might be closer to being ready than Mora is letting on. Personally, I'd like UCLA much better if Neuheisel plays. Seeing them up close in Jerry world against Texas, he avoids sacks by getting the ball out of his hands and IMO is quicker at reading defenses. So with that being said, and this might sound strange considering we are talking about the backup, but I think he gives them a better chance to win this game because I think he would manage the down and distance better by NOT taking the sacks. I can tell you that ASU believes Hundley will play based on what I heard Tuesday night.
Here's a clue about UCLA's sack problem with Hundley in the game. Mainly we are talking about an OL that just can't protect their quarterback. One might figure that a QB with Hundley's mobility and his supposed ability to extend plays might neutralize a pretty bad OL, but he has failed to do that with a whole lotta sacks to show for it. I noticed that Texas was able to disguise their QB rush with player after player, LB's and even safeties owning UCLA's backfield on most every play. Frequently there were 2 or 3 players that had beaten UCLA's protection in places they didn't belong.
So what's the verdict? What's up with Bret Hundley? IMHO, UCLA's protection broke down so badly it must have rattled him. His face has been planted in the dirt more often than I had ever seen before. Some things never change. Maybe Mora can figure it out?
So what's the verdict? What's up with Bret Hundley? IMHO, UCLA's protection broke down so badly it must have rattled him. His face has been planted in the dirt more often than I had ever seen before. Some things never change. Maybe Mora can figure it out?
I love taking points in conference play as a general rule but, I am a little worried about the caliber of opponents that Az St has played vs. UCLA's strength of schedule. Sagarin has Az St SOS at 158th and UCLA at 18th...my book has UCLA at -3 -110 so, I took it. I usually love home dogs during the week but, something is fishy when a majority of people like the dog. Good luck tonight in whatever you decide to do.
PS. you are always a must read...thanks!!
PS. you are always a must read...thanks!!
I'm not playing the spread because there are still a few questions to be answered on how good OSU is going to be when they get into conference play. And playing a backup QB. I think they have a little better defense than they've had in years past. Leaning under. But I took it when it was 70.5. Now down to 67 so I probably touch it now. I personally don't think KK is a very good coach and he's probably in over his head against Gundy and some of these other veteran coaches in the Big 12. Gun to my head, if I was picking a side I would go with OSU.
It seems like whenever I just let the cynic in me rant on for a while, and I give whoever gets in the line of fire the best I can do with a proper tongue lashing, they act as if they have taken it to heart and flip their game around at some point with all reasoning behind my arguments rendered all but completely useless. A few of you around here a couple of years ago might remember the thrashing I laid on ASU for being way way too undisciplined and much too Vontaze Burfectlike, akin to a spoiled brat throwing a tantrum when he doesn't get his way.
Yes I did say that only to witness Todd Graham come on board literally turning the Sun Devils from the most penalized team in CFB to the least penalized team. Just for the hell of it, it's as though I dared Graham to do something about what his adopted Devils had become...After all, nobody else could do anything to inject a little bit of heart into their spirit and so I didn't figure Graham could do any better..... but low and behold, that's exactly what he did... and he continued to raise up the Devils right up to Thursday night. But then it was after I put the hex on UCLA's OL with Bret Hundley almost obviously hidden out in the wings primed and ready to jump in on a dime. Hundley also received a good portion of my more cynical self.
Same result as Graham. It was almost like being reborn and reinvented as a new man. Now I suppose the world is torn on the subject of UCLA. Were the Bruins and Bret Hundley that good in the 2nd half, or was ASU's inexperienced defense that bad. Chicken or egg... does it really matter what came first?
Personally speaking, I'd rather move on and just help this poor girl brush off her ass.
Yes I did say that only to witness Todd Graham come on board literally turning the Sun Devils from the most penalized team in CFB to the least penalized team. Just for the hell of it, it's as though I dared Graham to do something about what his adopted Devils had become...After all, nobody else could do anything to inject a little bit of heart into their spirit and so I didn't figure Graham could do any better..... but low and behold, that's exactly what he did... and he continued to raise up the Devils right up to Thursday night. But then it was after I put the hex on UCLA's OL with Bret Hundley almost obviously hidden out in the wings primed and ready to jump in on a dime. Hundley also received a good portion of my more cynical self.
Same result as Graham. It was almost like being reborn and reinvented as a new man. Now I suppose the world is torn on the subject of UCLA. Were the Bruins and Bret Hundley that good in the 2nd half, or was ASU's inexperienced defense that bad. Chicken or egg... does it really matter what came first?
Personally speaking, I'd rather move on and just help this poor girl brush off her ass.
Conan
On the west coast this is what I'm playing
Wash +7
Stan/UW Under 48
Thinking here is that UW can be a tough nutt at home and Stanford does not do anything specifically great that would cause UW problems. In addition, the UW DL has been very good at penetration and we have to remember that this is a very young Stanford OL. If UW can prevent big plays and contain QB Hogan from making plays with his feet, they'll have the ability to keep this one very, very close. And I know he's young, but I like QB Miles in a close game. This is two of the better DL's in the PAC12.
USC -8 (-110)
With 2 weeks to stew off their loss to BC, gotta figure the pro set of OSU if just what the USC defense needs to see. Sure QB Manion will sling it around the yard, but he's going to be chased all day here and I don't like him when he gets out of the pocket. But I think this game turns on how USC attacks the Beavers back 7. SC should have a considerable advantage with the TE and WR's against the Beaver secondary. If they can continue to work tempo and hit on the quick slants and then work the go routes off of that, it should allow them to get the run game going and keep the defense off the field.
Thoughts?
On the west coast this is what I'm playing
Wash +7
Stan/UW Under 48
Thinking here is that UW can be a tough nutt at home and Stanford does not do anything specifically great that would cause UW problems. In addition, the UW DL has been very good at penetration and we have to remember that this is a very young Stanford OL. If UW can prevent big plays and contain QB Hogan from making plays with his feet, they'll have the ability to keep this one very, very close. And I know he's young, but I like QB Miles in a close game. This is two of the better DL's in the PAC12.
USC -8 (-110)
With 2 weeks to stew off their loss to BC, gotta figure the pro set of OSU if just what the USC defense needs to see. Sure QB Manion will sling it around the yard, but he's going to be chased all day here and I don't like him when he gets out of the pocket. But I think this game turns on how USC attacks the Beavers back 7. SC should have a considerable advantage with the TE and WR's against the Beaver secondary. If they can continue to work tempo and hit on the quick slants and then work the go routes off of that, it should allow them to get the run game going and keep the defense off the field.
Thoughts?
