Week 4 ... Trends / Leans .... Stats

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Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs KC)

– Philadelphia is on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7:
NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-72 SU but 56-29 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU)

-Miami is 11-1 to the Under in the last 12 Primetime games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5)

Sam Darnold (MIN) is 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.8, Team average PF: 16.2
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at GB)

-Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have really struggled of late, going 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in their last 21, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 15 of the last 19 (78.9%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total in DAL-NYG (o/u at 45)

* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Buffalo-Baltimore series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

  • – Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 78-64 SU but just 44-87-11 ATS, for 33.6%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 80-183 SU & 129-129-5 ATS (50%).
    System Match: FADE – ATLANTA (-2.5 vs NO)
 

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Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs KC)

– Philadelphia is on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7:
NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-72 SU but 56-29 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU)

-Miami is 11-1 to the Under in the last 12 Primetime games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5)

Sam Darnold (MIN) is 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.8, Team average PF: 16.2
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at GB)

-Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have really struggled of late, going 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in their last 21, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 15 of the last 19 (78.9%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total in DAL-NYG (o/u at 45)

* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Buffalo-Baltimore series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

  • – Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 78-64 SU but just 44-87-11 ATS, for 33.6%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 80-183 SU & 129-129-5 ATS (50%).
    System Match: FADE – ATLANTA (-2.5 vs NO)
Solid stuff OZ .... BOL
 

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Fantasy Play ... Dallas Dowdle Over 9.5 Rush Attempts - 150

This Number smells to me .... should be lower ..imo ...

Been wrong before ...just not this time ...LOL
 

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NFL ... Arizona Connor ... ZERO TD's last week ......but 7/8 games scored a TD

James Conner Anytime TD Scorer - 135 WAS Commanders @ ARI Cardinals A touchdown scorer is defined as the player in possession of the ball in the opposing end zone (a touchdown scorer is not the player who throws the touchdown)
 

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