Week 4: Going BIG Sunday Night

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Boise/ Oregon St: This is as much a play on Boise as it is a play against Oregon State. The Beavs are better this year, no doubt. They have a stable, but unspectacular QB, while last year they had a disaster from all 3 QBs. They also have WR Bolden, who can break off big plays IF he can get the ball enough. Unfortunately, their OL is awful again. Their starting LT is out for the year, and that's just the beginning. Against Idaho St, a 2015 last place FCS team that has probably the worst defense in the Big Sky, OSU QB Garretson was pressured all game last week. The running game went nowhere, and if not for Bolden's 167 yards and 5 Idaho St. turnovers, this game would have been very close. This was a game coming off a bye. Oregon State has a number of injuries, down to one TE, and they lack quality depth. Until Gary Andersen can get a few years of decent recruiting in, he is stuck with many terrible leftovers from the Mike Riley regime. Boise is now coming off a bye and will make DL pressure priority number one.

Boise's main area of inexperience is on the DL, but so far their front 7 has played pretty well, and that's not against bums like Idaho State. And the fact that even with below Boise standard for defensive linemen, they are much better than what Idaho State had. Boise DOES have an offense that can score in so many ways. They don't have any glaring weaknesses, but do have many playmakers, and a very solid OL. The Beavers DL will struggle all day to to stop RB Jeremy McNichols and crew. QB Rypien has 2 go-to WRs, and McNichols as an excellent option out of the backfield(51 receptions last year). The Beavers are missing a couple of starters from their defense, and as I said earlier, lacking in quality depth. Many freshman, redshirts and sophomores make up this Beaver team, and they have a long way to go to compete with teams like Boise and the PAC 12 schedule. If I lose this one, I am still going to be picking the Beavers to be losing some very lopsided games.

 

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Air Force/ Utah State Utah State's prominence as the Mt. West team that DID play great defense is all about gone. Those players of 1-2 years ago are now in the NFL or have graduated. Utah State does not reload, they recruit in the bottom half of the Mt. West teams. they are also likely playing without Devante Mays, their stud RB.even if he plays, his knee is only 2 weeks off the crutches he used during the USC game. Not full speed I'll bet. I like Air Force coming off a bye and playing vs. a defense that I think will struggle to contain their triple option/multiple sets offense that is so hard to prep for because they'll use the roll out-pass, the hurry up, play action, and anything the D might be giving to you. Kent Myers, the Utah St. QB has been somewhat hurried this year, throwing the great majority of his passes to a mostly inexperienced receiving corps. Weird stat for Myers: 47 completions for 440 yards. Only 2 pass plays over 20 yards. With a 36.1 QBR. Air Force with extra practice time, I'll give up the 3.

 

[ofred]

S. MISS/ UTEP: I like what I'm hearing out of Southern Miss this week after losing a tight one with Troy. Troy hung in there with Clemson on the road, losing by 6. But the Southern Miss team is focusing this week on UTEP as a crucial game in their season. The players and coaches took ownership for the loss, and are ready to start the "new season". UTEP will also be a team in need of redemption, but their problems run much deeper. Army crushed them by 50, never punting once, and scoring on every possession. The UTEP defense lacks discipline, tackling skills, and the ability to close in on runners. Southern Miss would be wise to bring a few new wrinkles into their offense to take advantage of UTEP's defensive shortcomings. UTEP has a large OL, but they are getting beat badly. They outweighed the Army DL by about 100 pounds each, but got speed rushed and pushed around all day. UTEP has a great RB in Aaron Jones, but defenses are keying on him due to the ineffectiveness of the UTEP passing offense. QB Zack Greenlee, a Fresno reject, and others have averaged about 150 yards passing per game, and there doesn't seem to be any long or medium game.

I also think SM QB Mullens is overdue for a big game. He had a 155.2 QBR last year with 38 TDs. UTEP's defense might be the right tonic for his mini slump. SM also has a strong running game to compliment the passing offense.

 

[ofred]

S. MISS/ UTEP: I like what I'm hearing out of Southern Miss this week after losing a tight one with Troy. Troy hung in there with Clemson on the road, losing by 6. But the Southern Miss team is focusing this week on UTEP as a crucial game in their season. The players and coaches took ownership for the loss, and are ready to start the "new season". UTEP will also be a team in need of redemption, but their problems run much deeper. Army crushed them by 50, never punting once, and scoring on every possession. The UTEP defense lacks discipline, tackling skills, and the ability to close in on runners. Southern Miss would be wise to bring a few new wrinkles into their offense to take advantage of UTEP's defensive shortcomings. UTEP has a large OL, but they are getting beat badly. They outweighed the Army DL by about 100 pounds each, but got speed rushed and pushed around all day. UTEP has a great RB in Aaron Jones, but defenses are keying on him due to the ineffectiveness of the UTEP passing offense. QB Zack Greenlee, a Fresno reject, and others have averaged about 150 yards passing per game, and there doesn't seem to be any long or medium game.

I also think SM QB Mullens is overdue for a big game. He had a 155.2 QBR last year with 38 TDs. UTEP's defense might be the right tonic for his mini slump. SM also has a strong running game to compliment the passing offense.

Forgot this: UTEP coach Sean Kugler again switched coaches in the offseason. This has been his MO, but it seems to make him look more desperate than someone who leads. UTEP recruiting has been in the dumps since he's been there, although if you've seen El Paso, it's not exactly a go-to place for top football recruits.

 

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Houston/ Texas St: It pains me to go against Houston. They'll win this comfortably, but this spread is ridiculous for a sandwich game between Cinn. and a short week and playing UConn Thursday night. UConn is their only loss last year, costing a possible shot at the NC playoff. Greg Ward is too valuable and too small, and somewhat gets nicked up with all of his ad-lib running, to have him play his usual game vs. Texas State. Texas State also has a decent offense that can score in garbage time. Houston holds back here, I think, in the 2nd half and even calls plays in the 1st half that keeps Ward from getting hit.

 

[ofred]

7* Washington -11 This is the game that Chris Petersen will challenge his team. The Huskies are going on the road finally and playing a real team, a conference team. UW needs a road game, where the only people around you are your teammates. They have been underexposed playing lightweights at home, hardly playing their starters in the 2nd half. In fact, this is one angle I like here. The UW scores are not at all indicative of how much better they are than their last 3 opponents(although the Idaho one was close), and I think they relish a game having to play all 4 quarters vs. real competition. I think Petersen is the man to handle the Husky hype, and his players reflect that sort of professionalism.

Along the same lines, you can almost ignore Arizona's stats vs. Hawaii and Grambling. Hawaii has the worst rushing defense in the FBS, and Grambling is a pretty good FCS team, about 25-30th ranked- but out- yarded Arizona. Arizona also has a number of injuries, with Anu Solomon either out or not 100%. Nick Wilson is likely not to play and the Wildcats are very thin at RB. Brandon Dawkins will likely start if Solomon doesn't go. He is dynamic, at least was vs. Hawaii, but is fairly raw. And the Huskies defense is likely the best D of the PAC 12, so I expect his productivity to drop quite a bit. Arizona has been criticized for years, and this year, for not being nasty or aggressive enough on their OL and DL. Their run defense was atrocious last season, giving up massive yards/ game to a number of teams.
(will have more on this write-up Thursday)

 

[ofred]

Betting down Boise to 2* Still like this game, but the 13 or 13.5 is a little too many points to risk a 3*. At -10 or -10.5 it's a 3*. So that and 3* Arkansas are changed from the original plays.

 

[ofred]

7* Washington -11 This is the game that Chris Petersen will challenge his team. The Huskies are going on the road finally and playing a real team, a conference team. UW needs a road game, where the only people around you are your teammates. They have been underexposed playing lightweights at home, hardly playing their starters in the 2nd half. In fact, this is one angle I like here. The UW scores are not at all indicative of how much better they are than their last 3 opponents(although the Idaho one was close), and I think they relish a game having to play all 4 quarters vs. real competition. I think Petersen is the man to handle the Husky hype, and his players reflect that sort of professionalism.

Along the same lines, you can almost ignore Arizona's stats vs. Hawaii and Grambling. Hawaii has the worst rushing defense in the FBS, and Grambling is a pretty good FCS team, about 25-30th ranked- but out- yarded Arizona. Arizona also has a number of injuries, with Anu Solomon either out or not 100%. Nick Wilson is likely not to play and the Wildcats are very thin at RB. Brandon Dawkins will likely start if Solomon doesn't go. He is dynamic, at least was vs. Hawaii, but is fairly raw. And the Huskies defense is likely the best D of the PAC 12, so I expect his productivity to drop quite a bit. Arizona has been criticized for years, and this year, for not being nasty or aggressive enough on their OL and DL. Their run defense was atrocious last season, giving up massive yards/ game to a number of teams.
(will have more on this write-up Thursday)

I really think one of the keys here is the Huskies being on their first road game. Remember, Arizona got hammered by UCLA at home last year in their first challenging game. They also lost to a weaker than this year UW squad by 46. I think this game sets up in a similar way. Arizona going with a high risk, bang-bang offense which against a very fast, skilled D like UW's, can lead to turnovers. Newcomer Dawkins might be the future, but I think he gets overwhelmed here. If the Huskies were at home for a 4th week in a row, they might be complacent. UW also dropped in the rankings even after winning. So many factors make this a large play for me.

 

[makavelireturns913]

Fred I see wash at 12.5 and bama at 44 would u still play at those lines ?

 

[ofred]

Fred I see wash at 12.5 and bama at 44 would u still play at those lines ?

I would play both at lesser units.

Got these in early this morning. Hope the lines are the same. Write-ups later:

3* Oklahoma St +8.5

​1* FAU +3.5

 

[varkeyboy]

UW up to -13 now!

 

[ofred]

The Washington line at -13 is getting pricey, losing some of its value. I've been burned many times myself by not being on top of the early lines, and then losing by the margin it moved during the week.

1* FAU: I don't believe FAU is as bad as they have looked the past 2 weeks. It's an experienced team that happened to play a very much improved Miami team, that they hung with for 3 quarters, and then a Kansas State team at home that needed a win, coming off a bye and also looking much better this year. FAU at home vs. Ball State, I think we'll see them get the win here, maybe convincingly.

3* Oklahoma St: I think Okie State has about a 40-50% chance of winning this game. Baylor has not looked the same this year vs. SMU or Rice. They DO have those guys on offense that are great playmakers, but there are a lot of other weaker parts of this team. Both the OL and DL are almost completely new, they lack depth all over the place, and the defense looks down about 2-3 notches from last year when they were overrated anyways. Also, there is the schedule differences between these 2 teams. Rice is just about as bad as they have been for the entire David Bailiff era, and their D is just awful…SMU played their backup QB due to an injury, but still played to a tie at half, and ran at 4.6 ypc. Oklahoma State is getting this many points because of their loss to CMU(which should have been a win due to a rule no one knew), but I think Central Michigan is a much better team than people think, and lost many close games to higher ranked opponents last season. Cooper Rush and his offense makes them a dangerous team…Rush being the 7th ranked QB for the upcoming NFL draft.

Oklahoma State ran off a long winning streak last year of 10 games before losing to Baylor by 10 points. Mike Gundy gets more out of his talent than probably anyone else in the Big 12, and has recruited fairly well the past few years- so there's talent there too. The assumption is that the Cowboys can't handle offenses like Baylor. But I believe that Baylor's D is about at the same level, maybe worse. And OK. St. defense is far superior to anything Baylor has seen this year- and considering Baylor's rebuilt OL, I think the Cowboys will limit a Baylor offense that is living off the reputation of past years. Oklahoma State also has a comparable offense to Baylor. They have two go-to WRs in James Washington and Jalen Mclesky, Mason Rudolph, who already has over 1,000 passing yards, with only 1 pick, and a slightly improved running game. This play says Baylor will be down this season a few notches, and that Oklahoma State is more battle-tested for such a big game.

 

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Tonight: No official play, but I like SMU at home in a game much more meaningful to them than TCU. TCU has Oklahoma on deck, and I think they'll run more than usual, SMU will likely run a lot too, both causing the clock to run.

No one giving USC a chance, and you can't blame them. But, it's better for them they're on the road and unless they quit(which I don't think they will), USC should be in the game, keeping it close. Much more $ on Utah, yet the books keeping it at 3.

 

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Last Plays, which I have been getting killed on- so tail at your own risk:
2* Idaho +15 I know, why so much love for stinking Idaho? Because they can hang with a team that like UNLV that almost no passing game. Idaho can concentrate on the UNLV run game, which is much better. Idaho can move the ball on offense, and the points here vs. a fairly poor UNLV defense makes it too juicy to pass up. Idaho getting almost no $, but this is a team that has lost badly(like last week) and responded well. They're used to losing, but they play hard week in and week out.
2* Florida +5 Should have grabbed the 6.5, but had too many other interests in other games. I think Appleby, being experienced and a solid QB, though unspectacular, plays well enough to hang in there. His Purdue OLs were just awful, and even though Florida's OL isn't great, I think McElwain closing practice this week will make this game more interesting than the usual Florida offensive slogfest. Tennessee's OL gets the bad press, but they have other issues that keep this team overrated. The Vols always keep it close, win or lose, no matter who the opponent is. Gator D is top 5 in the country.
1* South Carolina +3(-130) Kentucky's defense is so bad they gave up 35 to NMSU last week, and that was just the first half. Though SC has problems scoring themselves, I like frosh QB McIlwain to have a break out type of game here. Kentucky fans didn't show up last week, and I think they know this team is going bad fast. Starting QB Drew Barker is out, and though his backup looked great vs. NMSU, remember the Aggies have a dreadful D.
1* Troy/ NMSU - over 65 Troy is a surprise team this year, almost knocking off Clemson, and beating S. Miss last week. I think they put up 50+ on an awful NMSU defense. NMSU, to their credit, has a good dual threat QB in Tyler Rogers, a strong run game and might get their stud RB Larry Rose back this week. They scored 42 on KY. and I think they can score 20+ here.

 

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Flipping the channels, and can't take my eyes off of the Georgia-Ole Miss game. Don't even have any cash on it. The Georgia QB situation is bleak. Eason is definitely not ready to play. And the Georgia D getting gouged on the run.

 

[Serbone]

I appreciate the thorough write ups, well done, thank you!

 

[ofred]

Nice to start the day at +11 units. I almost bet off the CSU play when I saw EKG's max play on Minnesota.

 

[ofred]

Boise State should be dominating at OSU, but they've turned it over twice and had 2 other plays that were almost turned over. The Beavs DL is being pushed around badly.

Florida/ Tenn. Appleby could win the starting job here. He is more mobile than Del Rio, and makes good decisions. Vols look tight and disorganized. Florida's D is putting 7-8 guys up front and just attacking the line of scrimmage. They can get burned deep, but the Gators are making it clear they aren't going to let the Tennessee running game beat them, or give Dobbs much time to pass.

 

[Scott602]

Nice work on Alabama

 

[Scott602]

Your opinion on the Vandy game.