Week 3, Part II: Quack

[ofred]

Looking at one more medium-sized play, otherwise got some 1*plays. Last week went 4-2 on the 1*s.

1* Louisville +3 Clemson has the best D in the country, arguably. But Auburn's OL was awful last week, and their QB Stedham, while a good passer, has got lead feet. Lamar Jackson is one of the few QBs that can escape, and produce, vs. this Clemson DL. Not a fan of the sloppiness of this Louisville team, but Jackson has really developed as a passer, and their defense is better than their play in the 1st two games. Clemson just played a grueling game vs. Auburn, now on the road, and with a QB that takes too many hits to stay healthy for long. Kelly Bryant actually looks pretty dynamic at times, and he might get his team in the NC playoffs. But he isn't D Watson, and doesn't have Gallman, Williams, Leggett, Scott..and his OL looked so-so at times vs. Auburn.

1* Ohio State -31 Just what the beleaguered Buckeyes need, a one dimensional offense and a small, slow defense to rebound from last week's loss to OU. Army is actually pretty good this year, but this is a bad matchup for them. The OSU defensive front will be near impossible to handle, and I expect they'll be in the backfield causing TFLs (and turnovers) enough to put Army in passing situations way too much. Ohio State has the great depth to keep this up all game long, and make the 2nd half a continuation of the rout. Maybe Barrett can work on his passing game vs. a secondary that'll be 2 steps slower than what he's used to. Ohio State rarely struggles in games like this, even on the road.

 

[Skeeter123]

Wow, what a bad beat on the USF FH under. Unreal.

GL this weekend fred!

:toast:

 

[ofred]

Wow, what a bad beat on the USF FH under. Unreal.

GL this weekend fred!

:toast:

Unreal is right. I missed it, but USF ran from the 6 with 6 seconds left instead of kicking a FG? Huh? Illinois scoring was hard enough to believe.

 

[ofred]

2* Texas Tech -7 Lubbock, Texas. Nothing there except Tech football. Big game for them vs. the ASU Sun Devils. TT has had two weeks off to prep for this game, while ASU faces a brutal PAC 12 schedule beginning next week. First want to say that ASU should be 0-2, getting out-yarded by lowly NMSU by 150 yards but benefitting by 2 TOs that helped them win by 6. NM St. and SD State, which has a weaker D this year, sacked ASU QB Manny Wilkins 11 times. The weird thing is that Wilkins has also been the only thing keeping his team competitive. ASU hasn't run the ball well, the defense has been gashed for 900 yards in 2 games, and only Wilkins' passing has kept them viable.

Texas Tech might finally have a better than awful defense. It's too early to tell but they did stuff EWU, and their top-ranked FCS offense, holding them to 10 points. HC Kingsbury's offense looks to be loaded with skill players again even though QB Mahommes is gone. The new QB, Shimonek, is a pocket passer, but has looked good. Accurate and super prepared. Kingsbury's D let him know that they WANT his attention too, and that practice is a good practice when their D holds the O in check.

Then there's Todd Graham. Recruits fairly well to a party school with hot girls. But apparently didn't recruit OTs and defensive players all that well, has not delivered on winning, and for some reason, ASU players just don't have the same intensity that matches their talents. Graham will get fired for an even worse than usual season this year.

 

[ofred]

1* Oregon -7 (-130) 1H (Write-up above) The speed of the Duck offense catches Wyoming off-guard early.

1* Penn State -23.5 Crazy high spread, but a late game in Beaver Stadium should be a little insane. Part of this play is how inept Ga. State should be on offense, and that the PSU defense looks better this year. GS hasn't had a running game in 2-3 years, and Penn State defenders will cause TOs knowing the pass is their only option. Really considered the 37.5 game spread too.

 

[ofred]

2* BC/ Notre Dame- under 51.5 Glad I waited as this number bumped up a bit. BC has the same issues as in previous years. No real playmakers, a poor run game, and a young struggling QB. Freshman Anthony Brown got picked 3 times, was yanked, but will again start this week vs. a ND defense that is looking much better than anticipated. Coach Addazio, who is already old school, limits the risks vs. ND, hoping his defense can keep his team in the game. Notre Dame also has depended on the run and short pass in their first two games. Since BC has a very good secondary, I expect HC Kelly will keep new QB Wimbush from risking longer passes. Wimbush found out last week how hard it'll be vs. a top D to run the ball himself, gaining 1 yard on 16 carries. If you take out BC's games, in the past few years, vs. the Clemson-type teams, or maybe a bad FCS team, they almost always stay below this number.

Making this a ​3*

 

[ofred]

Sharp money supposedly bet Pitt down to +11 last night/ this AM, but Okie State is making a mockery of that $. Incredible. East Coast, non-conference trip, and they come out smoking.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

This Oklahoma State team is for real. In the past, a game like this is one they would notoriously come out flat for. However they are just taking care of business and moving on.

 

[ofred]

This Oklahoma State team is for real. In the past, a game like this is one they would notoriously come out flat for. However they are just taking care of business and moving on.

A definite contender for a playoff spot.

Duke game landed right on the number. Push unless you gave up 14.5. The UCLA/ Memphis was also very close to the exact spread, but it looks like memphis will win and cover.

 

[ML Dog]

Sharp money supposedly bet Pitt down to +11 last night/ this AM, but Okie State is making a mockery of that $. Incredible. East Coast, non-conference trip, and they come out smoking.

Oh I'm Sayin

 

[ML Dog]

This Oklahoma State team is for real. In the past, a game like this is one they would notoriously come out flat for. However they are just taking care of business and moving on.

Spot On Exactly some thing appears Dramatically Different but as The QuackMaster Himself whispers....in that other Thread, they've yet to face a Staunch Defense. We will SEE, lol. Oh Yesss Lawd.....We Will See.

Hopefully an overly enthusiastic Point Spread.


Then.



Yea We Shall Stand By and Watch. :toast:

 

[ofred]

Spot On Exactly some thing appears Dramatically Different but as The QuackMaster Himself whispers....in that other Thread, they've yet to face a Staunch Defense. We will SEE, lol. Oh Yesss Lawd.....We Will See.

Hopefully an overly enthusiastic Point Spread.


Then.


Yea We Shall Stand By and Watch. :toast:

I hear you on the overly enthusiastic point spread.

 

[ofred]

​2* usc -7(-120) 2h

 

[Serbone]

Guess I forgot to count the first two weekends of college football as Week 1. So last week, should've posted as Week 2. Who cares, right?

11-4, +11 units, but 2-2 on my top four plays. Don't regret playing Stanford after watching USC look physically matched vs. WMU. But USC must have been looking ahead and saving the best for the Trees. Ohio State, overrated, and I knew Barrett was a mediocre passer and that OU would key on the run. Still can't figure out why the Beavers were favored. Really wanted to load up on Minny but the spread had me wary. Still..5* was fine. YTD: 16-9, +10.95 units

7* Oregon -13.5 Don't be fooled by the score, the Ducks clearly outplayed Nebraska. I hit the +14 on the Huskers, but felt extremely lucky to win it. The Ducks got the big 28 point lead at half(and it could have been more), and then lost intensity in the 3rd quarter. Nebraska hit a few big plays for scores, but otherwise, Oregon held them in check. It seemed that Nebraska had 6-7 big plays, but otherwise did very little on offense. Taggart and Jim Leavitt have turned around this defense. They didn't get a lot of pass rush at times, but did hurry Tanner Lee to throw 4 picks and many incompletions. The Duck pass coverage was excellent considering how bad it was last year, and their run D was solid. Besides Lee's 4 ints, Oregon came close to stripping the ball a number of times. Turnover mentality.

And there is nothing wrong with Oregon's offense. The zero in the 2nd half was partly due to running too often(instead of mixing the run/pass in the 1H), partly due to Nebraska's D adjustments, and partly due to a few missed easy opportunities. QB Herbert has got great touch on the ball, can move around well, and occasionally runs when needed. His poise and decision-making is markedly improved from last year. Great OL, run game, and though some of the WRs are young, there is lots of talent there. The weak 2H will motivate the coaches and players to play for 60 minutes vs. Wyoming.

Wyoming was last year's darling in the Mt. West, and I do like their coach. But the amazing RB Brian Hill is gone(and his 1900 rushing yards), the top 4 of 5 receivers are gone, and now acclaimed QB Josh Allen has it all on his shoulders. Wyoming couldn't run the ball on Gardner-Webb last week(or on Iowa), and Allen has been under pressure in the first two games mostly due to defenses not keying on Hill anymore. Wyoming's D also got gashed last year in a few games, 69 to UNLV, 56 to UNM, 52 to Nebraska, and 34 to a horrible Nevada offense. Wyoming has been recruiting near the bottom of the Mt. West for the past many years, and their athleticism and speed are not too good. Oregon's offense will be too much to handle, and this time for 60 minutes. Taggart won 2 road blowouts last season with USF, at Syracuse and Cinn. USF went 4-1 on the road, and won their bowl game in a neutral site. He has this Duck team on an even keel, disciplined, and will use last week's 2H as motivation to crush the Cowboys. Wyoming was tough at home last year, but think their lack of talent catches up to them this year. Ducks are a complete team again, and finally have the coaching staff to be consistent.

Well done!

You knew what you were doing, the write up shows why you thought it was a strong play.... thanks!