Good luck to all the above posters. Thanks for the props. Rick Rock- I did read your blog on the Ducks, and I have to agree that they are not ready to be a top contender. They might cover vs. Virginia only because the Cavs' offense is just dreadful, but I'm off that game because despite Oregon's great O skill players, their OL could still have some growing pains. The D might also be about the same as last year. UC Davis moved the ball pretty well…and they're one of the weaker Big Sky teams.
2* UConn +4 (-120) Of all the RLM games, I like this one best. Like Boise State, Navy is getting some points here on past reputation. And actually I liked Navy QB Tago Smith quite a bit. But he's gone with a knee injury, and his replacement doesn't have the elusiveness or speed. Will Worth is one of those upperclassman who makes a good 3rd stringer, mature and willing to hold the clipboard for the more talented QBs in front of him. Navy, though, has only 1 returning offensive starter, and UConn's defense is stout and has seen Navy and Army's option offenses the past year. I also don't think last week's score of Navy-Fordham represented the actual competitiveness of that game. Fordham moved the ball pretty easily, but couldn't seem to punch it in for various reasons. UConn got a scare from Maine last week, but I think they were looking ahead, and will improve on that game in week 2. UConn finally has an offensive line. If you have seen UConn play the past few years, their QBs are always running for their lives. Not now. Bryant Shirreffs is a dual threat who now finally has time to pass. UConn also has the AAC's all purpose yard leader back, Arkeel Newsome…and their top 3 WRs. I give UConn a very good chance of winning this game, but the 4 points could come in handy. UConn's D keeps it close.
2* UConn +4 (-120) Of all the RLM games, I like this one best. Like Boise State, Navy is getting some points here on past reputation. And actually I liked Navy QB Tago Smith quite a bit. But he's gone with a knee injury, and his replacement doesn't have the elusiveness or speed. Will Worth is one of those upperclassman who makes a good 3rd stringer, mature and willing to hold the clipboard for the more talented QBs in front of him. Navy, though, has only 1 returning offensive starter, and UConn's defense is stout and has seen Navy and Army's option offenses the past year. I also don't think last week's score of Navy-Fordham represented the actual competitiveness of that game. Fordham moved the ball pretty easily, but couldn't seem to punch it in for various reasons. UConn got a scare from Maine last week, but I think they were looking ahead, and will improve on that game in week 2. UConn finally has an offensive line. If you have seen UConn play the past few years, their QBs are always running for their lives. Not now. Bryant Shirreffs is a dual threat who now finally has time to pass. UConn also has the AAC's all purpose yard leader back, Arkeel Newsome…and their top 3 WRs. I give UConn a very good chance of winning this game, but the 4 points could come in handy. UConn's D keeps it close.
I know Florida owns Kentucky going way back, but that is irrelevant now. Florida has issues with their OL, and pro style QB Del Rio, was pressured a lot last week vs. a rebuilding creampuff, UMass. Del Rio threw many short, safe passes, but I think he is a huge step down for Ky. after playing S. Miss. QB Nick Mullens. Florida's running game was also mediocre, and that goes back to last year. I like the 1H play because Ky. football coach, mark Stoops, seems to get his team ready to play each week, but fails to make adjustments in 2nd halves. (Gotta run, will add to this later)
Kentucky has the better offense, running and passing, although that will be somewhat negated by Florida's D. Florida just can't seem to score on anybody, and I'm at a loss that with their recruiting prowess that they couldn't find a QB, a stud RB and a decent OL for the past few years. McElwain will eventually right the ship, but for now the offense looks no better than last year. UMass played evenly with them for about 3 quarters, and UMass couldn't beat a top 20 FCS team.
Louisville is the real deal. Hope you didn't tail my play...
1* South Dakota State -35 (-130) These FCS match ups have betting limits, but I couldn't pass this one up. SD St. dropped 41 on TCU last week on the road, and from the sounds of it, they outplayed the TCU defense during much of the game. Drake lost to a Division 2 school last week, and is from the Pioneer Conference, which is one step above Division 2 in competitiveness. May also play the over on this game tomorrow. SD State is a legit contender for a final 4 FCS playoff team.
These are all games I liked this week, but didn't pull the trigger on for at least 2*
All 1* :
Washington -38 See earlier write-up. Could have played this for 2 and might still tomorrow.
Purdue +5 I fail to see why Cinn. is giving up 5 on the road with ALL new WRs, a shitty defense and on the road. Purdue wins this outright or hangs tough and goes 2-0(the pinnacle of their season). Purdue does not have to cover last year's Bearcat WRs which would give them fits. Better DL pressure makes Purdue respectable, finally, defensively.
Wyoming +25 Like the coaching matchup here. Riley sooo underachieved last year, Nebraska doesn't recruit anywhere near the old days, and Wyoming found a QB and an offense. Nebraska wins, but Wyoming eats up clock, gets a few scores and makes this a 10-20 point loss.
Texas Tech ML +115 Lost the 3.5 spread yesterday because I dawdled. Mahommes befuddles an overly aggressive ASU defense. ASU struggled with Northern Arizona last week, and not sure if their QB is going to be "the guy". Texas Tech's D has to be better, and can outscore teams like this.
All 1* :
Washington -38 See earlier write-up. Could have played this for 2 and might still tomorrow.
Purdue +5 I fail to see why Cinn. is giving up 5 on the road with ALL new WRs, a shitty defense and on the road. Purdue wins this outright or hangs tough and goes 2-0(the pinnacle of their season). Purdue does not have to cover last year's Bearcat WRs which would give them fits. Better DL pressure makes Purdue respectable, finally, defensively.
Wyoming +25 Like the coaching matchup here. Riley sooo underachieved last year, Nebraska doesn't recruit anywhere near the old days, and Wyoming found a QB and an offense. Nebraska wins, but Wyoming eats up clock, gets a few scores and makes this a 10-20 point loss.
Texas Tech ML +115 Lost the 3.5 spread yesterday because I dawdled. Mahommes befuddles an overly aggressive ASU defense. ASU struggled with Northern Arizona last week, and not sure if their QB is going to be "the guy". Texas Tech's D has to be better, and can outscore teams like this.
1* Teaser: Wake Forest/ Duke-under 50 and Florida/ KY-under 55.5 (-110) Great game totals based on the consistence offensive incompetence of all 4 teams - except maybe Kentucky. But KY has to face the best defense(easily) of the four. Wake maybe 10-14…..Duke 13-20 Florida has to score defensively or on ST(maybe twice) to cover this 55.5. KY about 10-14
Final plays(probably):
2* Purdue +4/+5 Got 1* at +5 and 1* at +4. Have convinced myself that Cinn. and Purdue are about even, but Purdue at home. Purdue might have a slightly better D, and this is a big game for them considering where they've been the last few years(in the toilet).
2* South Carolina +8 Neither team, nor their opponents last week have QBs that scare anyone(and that includes about 7-8 QBs), but I think SC might have the edge here in that Perry Orth is a decent game manager, and freshman McIlwain provides some dual threat with a good running option. SC also is also tackling and swarming to the ball better than last year. It's tough to win 2 weeks in a row in the SEC, but I think MSU's drop off at QB is immense. Dak Prescott was so freaking good. This team depended on him too much. The reason this play appeals to me also is that SC has decent chance of winning. MSU still has the edge defensively, they will be an angry team coming off their S. Ala. loss, but I'm not sure offensively that there is much they can do to cover a 8 point spread. SC at least got tested by a very tough Vandy D. SA's defense is average at the Sun Belt level.
2* Purdue +4/+5 Got 1* at +5 and 1* at +4. Have convinced myself that Cinn. and Purdue are about even, but Purdue at home. Purdue might have a slightly better D, and this is a big game for them considering where they've been the last few years(in the toilet).
2* South Carolina +8 Neither team, nor their opponents last week have QBs that scare anyone(and that includes about 7-8 QBs), but I think SC might have the edge here in that Perry Orth is a decent game manager, and freshman McIlwain provides some dual threat with a good running option. SC also is also tackling and swarming to the ball better than last year. It's tough to win 2 weeks in a row in the SEC, but I think MSU's drop off at QB is immense. Dak Prescott was so freaking good. This team depended on him too much. The reason this play appeals to me also is that SC has decent chance of winning. MSU still has the edge defensively, they will be an angry team coming off their S. Ala. loss, but I'm not sure offensively that there is much they can do to cover a 8 point spread. SC at least got tested by a very tough Vandy D. SA's defense is average at the Sun Belt level.
