Love this stuff...much respect.Jaguars winning both meetings against Houston last season, when Jacksonville only had 4 wins all season long, and covering both meetings while going 3-10-1 ATS in other 14 games they played is telling me all I need to know. They owned Houston last season and they almost beat them in 2nd meeting of 2012 as 15 points underdogs, leading by 14 in the 4th, but eventually losing in OT. That game came during their 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS run from week 4 to week 17. Their 37 points scored in that game was their best offensive production of the season that year. They scored 27 in 2nd meeting against Houston last season and that was their 2nd best offensive game last season and they allowed only 6 in their first meeting last season and that was by far their best defensive game last season and first and only game they allowed under 20 last season. Lets not forget that they were double digit underdogs in two of those three meetings. The fact is, their rare good games recently are coming against Houston way too often to get ignored.
Parga, can you enlighten me on CLE play?
Thanks!!!
It is simple. I like betting against favorites on the road after spending an extended period of time at home. The last time Colts were on the road was more than a month ago. They are a dome team and they will now play outside in cold weather. The Browns have a solid defense this season and that is important against the Colts. Cleveland is a good bounce back team this season going 4-0 after a loss. Editing to add the trend: @ Favorites in weeks 12 and later are 3-21 ATS after 3 or more home games since 2000.
Good luck the rest of the season guys !
San Diego +3.5
Jacksonville +5
Oakland +8
Cleveland +4
Arizona PK
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This is my final card for week 14. I can only upgrade or downgrade some plays (from medium to big or from medium to small) but I will not be adding or scratching any plays. See you all Sunday.