Week 12 sucker bet!

[C-Gold]

Usually the "public" doesn't move a line, but are denying that line movement doesn't occur?

How about when USC moved 6 points over no news??? EVERYBODY bet on them, and I liked them too, but moving a line almost a touchdown is a freaking joke.

The books don't want say...

1 million dollars, on one team
and 575,000 dollars on another team...


they move the lines to entice action on the other side. You don't need equal action, but you want it "close".


There is a lot more public than sharpes out there, and the public can move lines..

 

[MikeB]

must win for pats or their playoff hopes are done with. i will be one of the suckers today.

Agreed.

Cassel has not lost B2B yet either.

It was one of Cassels first starts, and Miami threw a "wildcat" offense at them, I think the Pats will be prepared.

Adding not much of a homefield advantage as thousands of people travel to Miami for this game from NE.

 

[MikeB]

Usually the "public" doesn't move a line, but are denying that line movement doesn't occur?

How about when USC moved 6 points over no news??? EVERYBODY bet on them, and I liked them too, but moving a line almost a touchdown is a freaking joke.

The books don't want say...

1 million dollars, on one team
and 575,000 dollars on another team...


they move the lines to entice action on the other side. You don't need equal action, but you want it "close".


There is a lot more public than sharpes out there, and the public can move lines..

Let the USC game go man.

 

[C-Gold]

Homefield advantage isn't about the crowd...

It is about the field, the mental aspects.


NE has an aging defense.

 

[C-Gold]

Let the USC game go man.

It is used as an example... it is a good example. Dummy's still don't understand.

 

[CRVTEC]

I hope you are right on Miami C-Gold. I like them as well. Good luck.

 

[C-Gold]

I will be...

I am very good at spotting sucker bets.

 

[Jstack34]

Bump

 

[Paddywack]

Looks like the suckers (me included) won. Now on to the next sucker bet- Giants -3.

 

[RJJM94]

wash -3 is the sucker bet of the week. Hammer Seattle if you like free money.

 

[winbet]

There are no sucker bets before a game based on Public opinion, only arrogant perceptions by Idiots. :drink:

 

[Sportsrmylife]

I just found this thread. I really like the concept behind this but I feel the absolute sucker bet of the week is betting Indy +3.

Thoughts.

Indy has gotten on a roll of late by winning 3 straight games over NE, @ Pitt, and Houston. Announcers are talking about the Colts being the hottest team in the NFL right now. They talk about them getting a wildcard berth. Everyone watched Manning defeat one of the best defenses in the NFL in Pitt a few weeks back. Now they are on the road at are a DOG??????

San Diego on the other hand has been a dumpster fire over the last 4 weeks. Lost @ Buff, lost @ New Orleans, BARELY beat KC @ home as a 2 TD fav. KC went for a 2pt conversion and was stopped to give the Chargers a narrow win. Last week everyone and their family heard about the 11-10 football game vs Pitt. San Diego couldn't move the ball whatsoever. San Diego is 4-6 on the year. Norv Turner is rumored to be heading for the exits after the season.

Sportsinsights shows after 80,972 bets it is Indy 71% (spread) 86% moneyline and the line hasn't moved off of SD -3 yet.

I believe the sucker bet of the week is on Indy +3

My bet is on San Diego -3 for all you can eat baby!

 

[Jstack34]

wash -3 is the sucker bet of the week. Hammer Seattle if you like free money.

I love free money

 

[quantumleap]

I just found this thread. I really like the concept behind this but I feel the absolute sucker bet of the week is betting Indy +3.

Thoughts.

Indy has gotten on a roll of late by winning 3 straight games over NE, @ Pitt, and Houston. Announcers are talking about the Colts being the hottest team in the NFL right now. They talk about them getting a wildcard berth. Everyone watched Manning defeat one of the best defenses in the NFL in Pitt a few weeks back. Now they are on the road at are a DOG??????

San Diego on the other hand has been a dumpster fire over the last 4 weeks. Lost @ Buff, lost @ New Orleans, BARELY beat KC @ home as a 2 TD fav. KC went for a 2pt conversion and was stopped to give the Chargers a narrow win. Last week everyone and their family heard about the 11-10 football game vs Pitt. San Diego couldn't move the ball whatsoever. San Diego is 4-6 on the year. Norv Turner is rumored to be heading for the exits after the season.

Sportsinsights shows after 80,972 bets it is Indy 71% (spread) 86% moneyline and the line hasn't moved off of SD -3 yet.

I believe the sucker bet of the week is on Indy +3

My bet is on San Diego -3 for all you can eat baby!

They are 1 of my 4 picks in the Trap Play thread.

:toast:

 

[tdibs]

the trap play theory seems most effective when there is reverse line movement... the line moved today in the same direction as the betting percentages meaning that public and sharps were all on NE...also, yesterday the Wake Forest line moved from -2 to +2.5...BC still covered so you can find more recent examples other than USC/Oklahoma to show that big line movement does not always equal a trap...

 

[C-Gold]

It isn't very often you see a line move 5 points and cross 0.

If the zebras make the correct call on the late Randy Moss TD, then NE is up by 3 points trying to kick long FG that might or might not go through the uprights. It is a totally different game then.

Miami was scoring at will, NE was scoring at will.

If I see a line move 5 points for no reason, I am either taking it or no play. The public can't lose them all, but more than 60% of the time today's play was the right play.

 

[canabiz]

Gold, while I agree with your theory in general, you have to admit the Pats were the better team today and for that I tipped my hat to them. Cassel took a beating last time these 2 teams met but he has improved tremendously since and he may be in for nice raise next season, wherever he ends up.

Also Props to Wes Welker, he took a lick early in the game but hung around and that's what character is all about.

Best of luck next game chief.

 

[C-Gold]

Casell played a good game, but the stats were very misleading.

How many of those yards were screens to Faulk, WR screens to Welker, WR screens to Moss, and the short crossing pass to Welker where Jason Allen fell down.

Cassell had a solid game, felt the pass rush, got rid of the ball, but he had some help in the stats department from the short passes where his guys picked up the yards, and the amazing couple catches by randy moss.

If anything, I was more impressed by those deep comeback routes to Reche Caldwell etc. Cassell did a good job, but not a 400 yard good job. I will say that he also didn't deserve that INT to Moss.



I think Cassell played well in this system, and that it was very QB friendly. I wonder how he would do if you threw him into say the Eagles offense, or Seattle, or some other team.

Where do you think he ends up next year? Oakland? Minnesota? Detroit?

 

[Sportsrmylife]

They are 1 of my 4 picks in the Trap Play thread.

:toast:

I can't find this thread quantum?

 

[canabiz]

I think Cassel will be OK in Minnesota with Berrian and Co.

but the Pats is coming on strong, the defense is still suspect but Cassel has settled down nicely and found his rhythm.