Week 12: Ducks are Dead

[ofred]

Played this one between a 1* and 2*, but since it's closer to 2*, as posted:

2* NMSU/ Texas St.- over 65.5 This play is based on 2 of the worst defenses in FBS football. Why not? And both teams have some offensive firepower- Texas State has a decent dual threat QB, Tyler jones, who has had some great games vs. lesser teams, and has been shut down vs. some SEC and better teams. NMSU also has a pretty good dual threat QB, another Tyler- Tyler Rogers. They also have Larry Rose back, one of the better RBs in the lower tier FBS conferences. Rose ripped off 168 vs. a decent Arkansas St defense last game, and along with Rogers, should shred this Texas St. D.

Texas State's D is almost unprecedented in its badness. They are dead last in defensive efficiency nationwide, and if you've seen them play, you see small, slow guys getting pushed around. NMSU and TS are also last and 3rd from last in pass defense. Between the two of them, they have 14 total sacks on the year. That's less than one sack per game per team. Two veteran QBs, some very good offensive skill players, and two defenses that can't tackle well/ are slow, and very good weather in Las Cruces. Neither team is going to a bowl so why not open up the playbook and have a track meet? This game meets my criteria of 2 TDs for a total. If I can see a total has a good chance of going two TDs past the number, then it's a play. Final score: something like 50-38 NMSU..

 

[ofred]

2* WMU/ Buffalo- under 57
2* Buffalo +35.5 Kind of shocked that these numbers haven't changed yet, considering the weather. This game is about 28 hours away, and so this forecast looks to be accurate. Kalamazoo will be ugly tomorrow for football fans and players. You got the wind of 20-30, with gusts from 40-50. Then it's going to be cold enough for snow, which looks to be 90% likely along with rain. The window of this ugliness will be in the afternoon- before, during and after the game. WMU will definitely win, but in these conditions, will they be able to pass(which they are very good at)? I think they'll happy with a win, and not unnecessarily go for the style points. Also, WMU will pull starters early with a decent lead, and run out the clock. Buffalo is a poor passing team and will run and run some more. With both teams running primarily, watch the clock run too. May add to this…. Check out the local news station there- WWMT.

Wind Chill in the mid-20s. Wet Snow(1-3 inches) will not accumulate, but make those fingers cold, and uniforms and the ball wet. Will look at this one again later tonight for bumping up..hard to believe Buffalo couldn't cover 35 and 1/2 in weather like this.

 

[powerz]

GL this week O fred and thanks for a great ride this season.

Been laying of the smaller unit stuff but When you and Conan are on the same side of a play I have hammered it.

IE Utah got it early with you

 

[ofred]

GL this week O fred and thanks for a great ride this season.

Been laying of the smaller unit stuff but When you and Conan are on the same side of a play I have hammered it.

IE Utah got it early with you

I should be laying off the small stuff too, but in the next post you can see I didn't. GL.

 

[ofred]

Went 5-2 on these small plays last week. Couldn't resist..

1* WVU +3.5 Best defense in the Big 12, and plays well against these spread offenses like Oklahoma's. Great tacklers too and limit yards after the catch. WVU at home, and have an underrated offense going against a injury plagued, season-poor D of the Sooners.

1* Tulane +15 Tulane at home and coach Willie Fritz has his team playing hard for 60 minutes no matter what. Temple likely missing their stud RB and a top DE. Tulane can at least run the ball, and eat up some clock with a few long drives, making a 15 point spread more doable. Temple is also a run-heavy team that takes their sweet time moving down the field.

1* Arizona +4.5 Could have had 6.5 but waited- "Doh", as Homer would say. OSU is still so young and injury riddled on defense. Arizona's QB Anu Solomon is the better choice here to give his team a chance. The Beavs will be missing WR Seth Collins(quick after the catch), and likely their best RB Ryan Nall. I do like the never quit attitude of the Beavers, but I don't like the lack of talent at almost every position. They should NOT be giving up points to almost anyone.

1* Colorado -6 This is going against a public dog, Wazzu. I'm going partially here on the RLM, and partly on Colorado's better defense and being at home. Wazzu is so due for a dud.

1* Baylor -1.5 Going contrarian here as no one wants Baylor anymore. This line opened at K St. -2.5, inviting K. State money, and now it's gone 4 points the other way. Baylor in their last home game, and with their cadre of RBs back, and a pretty good freshman QB, I say they win this somewhat emotional game. KS only has one signature win all year- Texas.

1* UTSA +27.5 Last I checked, about 18% of the bets going on UTSA, but this line hasn't moved. UTSA is another one of those lower tier teams that plays hard no matter whom the opponent. A&M looks like a team swirling down the toilet, losing to MSU and Ole Miss the last 2 weeks. This play says they don't have much to play for anymore, have LSU next week, and UTSA playing for a unexpected bowl spot. Sumlin- underachiever?

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today.....

 

[ofred]

1* USC -13 Pretty sure it's my last play of the day, unless I see a 2H or live-in play. I just don't like the UCLA offense. No running game, and a QB who throws a lot, but is turnover prone and a pocket passer. USC playing this like a home game, with many of their fans attending. Darnold and their defense really impressive.

 

[knickfan]

what do you make of the utah line movement, if anything?

 

[thewiscokid]

what do you make of the utah line movement, if anything?

Just noticed the line movement as well. It is definitely not weather related it is clear, sunny, and no wind in Salt Lake City.

 

[ofred]

Some big money hit Oregon. But Utah was slammed by sharps too, and likely for more. This opened at 9.5 and was hit all the way to 14.5. Now the underdog sharps are coming in…like they do every Friday night or Saturday. If you like Utah, this is your chance to get the best line possible. Unless they know some inside info, I don't see Oregon is a good play, or even a safe bet.

 

[ofred]

Some observations, flipping the channels:
* Wisconsin is giving everyone on the roster a chance to run the ball, and it's working vs. a Purdue D that reminds me of Cal.
* BC and UConn..the total was super low for a reason. The record will be broken for runs of 2 yards or less today.
* Baylor does look inspired. Hope it pays off.

 

[Uscsilb24]

How do you lose a yard on 4th and 1 against Oregon? Herbert having a field day passing the ball.

 

[bigwang]

Utah sleepwalking through 1h so far. 2h should be interesting.

GL today ofred.

 

[THawk+]

Utah not looking very good so far, not playing with any urgency or edge at all today. Oregon actually looks pretty good today

Not liking how this is looking so far...

Yes, How do you lose a yard against this Oregon D line that flat out stinks. Reason is Utah going through the motions, so far.
They better pick it up or Utah will lose this game...

 

[ofred]

Utah needs to keep playing solid D, and the offense needs to open it up.

 

[Conan]

No a problem. Just wait for the adrenaline to run down.

 

[Uscsilb24]

Long Long game but man now a turnover in the redzone.

 

[ofred]

That fumble hurts. Utah was looking good starting at their own 3 and driving…Still, it's 7-3.

 

[Uscsilb24]

2nd half Utah only -6. Thought it would be 10 or so. I am on Oregon 2nd half and praying Utah doesn't win by 11,12 or 13.

 

[THawk+]

2nd half Utah only -6. Thought it would be 10 or so. I am on Oregon 2nd half and praying Utah doesn't win by 11,12 or 13.

That's a ballsy play. Not sure Utah does not come out with some fire and throttles Oregon...