WS,
Pulled this off the Skybook site:
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rules and Restrictions:[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#1 - Offer valid on Football Straight wagers of up to $500, placed over the Internet only. Sides only. College and Professonal Football only.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#2 - The free half point special does not apply on Football lines on or off numbers 3 or 7.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#3 - Valid EVERYDAY, once per game, per customer.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#4 - Not valid when buying points.
[/font]
Pulled this off the Skybook site:
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rules and Restrictions:[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#1 - Offer valid on Football Straight wagers of up to $500, placed over the Internet only. Sides only. College and Professonal Football only.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#2 - The free half point special does not apply on Football lines on or off numbers 3 or 7.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#3 - Valid EVERYDAY, once per game, per customer.[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#4 - Not valid when buying points.
[/font]
I feel compelled to shed some light on your observations:
#1
"Two teams going in opposite directions.
After the embarrasing loss to Tennessee, GB has won three straight, all three by at least 14 pts SU and 12 pts ATS. They were 0-4 in previous 4 games, losing by at least a TD both SU and ATS."
"GB has won three straight" - Green Bay's last three opponents have an average of 3.3 wins and just about 5 losses. I'm not too into rounding but its safe to say that an average of 3 wins and 5 losses doesnt constitute a very tough schedule. What is it that makes you excited about wins vs Detroit, Dallas, and Washington - after losses to Chicago, Tennessee(a BLOWOUT??), and the Giants?
#2
"Minny lost their last two games, after winning 4 straight in weeks 3-7."
Minny lost to the giants two games ago but did you forget that they just covered the spread AT INDY? (still without Moss!). The loss to the giants was putrid, but then again Green Bay couldnt beat them either so value of that comparison is certainly dimished.
#3
Green Bay is 8-2 vs MIN in L10 at GB.
I am sorry but I have to lay it on you on this point... What does green bay's record against Minny 20 meetings ago (let alone 5 meetings @GB ago which I must remind you was FIVE YEARS AGO) have to do with how they match up this weekend?
#1
"Two teams going in opposite directions.
After the embarrasing loss to Tennessee, GB has won three straight, all three by at least 14 pts SU and 12 pts ATS. They were 0-4 in previous 4 games, losing by at least a TD both SU and ATS."
"GB has won three straight" - Green Bay's last three opponents have an average of 3.3 wins and just about 5 losses. I'm not too into rounding but its safe to say that an average of 3 wins and 5 losses doesnt constitute a very tough schedule. What is it that makes you excited about wins vs Detroit, Dallas, and Washington - after losses to Chicago, Tennessee(a BLOWOUT??), and the Giants?
#2
"Minny lost their last two games, after winning 4 straight in weeks 3-7."
Minny lost to the giants two games ago but did you forget that they just covered the spread AT INDY? (still without Moss!). The loss to the giants was putrid, but then again Green Bay couldnt beat them either so value of that comparison is certainly dimished.
#3
Green Bay is 8-2 vs MIN in L10 at GB.
I am sorry but I have to lay it on you on this point... What does green bay's record against Minny 20 meetings ago (let alone 5 meetings @GB ago which I must remind you was FIVE YEARS AGO) have to do with how they match up this weekend?
Jaypaw,
1st point...
Washington's loss vs GB was their only loss by more than a TD this season, and it was their only loss in a 4 week span. They allowed 28 pts in that game, most (by far) they've allowed all season long.
Detroit was a 3-1 team when they faced GB. Full of confidence, playing their best football in years, yet they got killed by GB in that game, allowing the season high 38 pts.
Dallas was a 2-3 team when they faced GB, and yet again, the 41 pts they allowed vs GB was their season high.
So, obviously, GB offense is doing well right now, but I would also like to mention that their defense gained some confidence in those 3 games. They allowed just over 14 pts pg in those three games, compared to 39 ppg in their previous three game.
Also, the 'strenght of schedule' in the NFL is not as important as it is in NCAA. In NFL, every single team can win, on any given Sunday. Teams gain confidence and momentum after they win a couple of games, no matter if they won those games against good, bad or average teams.
2nd point...
Minny covered at Indy, and I was one of just maybe 30% of bettors who backed Minny in that game. However, as my system suggests, teams comming of a road dog cover, in a high scoring game, have a tendency not to show up if they play another road game the following week. Why ? I don't know, but I believe in my systems and I usually win with them.
3rd point...
A dome team mostlystruggle in November/December/January road games. I don't think it is a coincidence that Minnesota Vikings have 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record in road games in November recently, and that Minnesota Gophers only won 7 of their last 43 road games in November. Green Bay is one of the taughest venues in football in November, December and January. They have a 9-2 record vs Minny in home games in Nov./Dec in last 15+ years. Once again, I don't think this is a coincidence.
Feel free to ask, comment, disagree. This is what this forum is all about.
I wish you the best of luck this week !
WS
P.S. Alaska is beautifull. However, I moved to St.Johns, Newfoundland 10 years ago.
1st point...
Washington's loss vs GB was their only loss by more than a TD this season, and it was their only loss in a 4 week span. They allowed 28 pts in that game, most (by far) they've allowed all season long.
Detroit was a 3-1 team when they faced GB. Full of confidence, playing their best football in years, yet they got killed by GB in that game, allowing the season high 38 pts.
Dallas was a 2-3 team when they faced GB, and yet again, the 41 pts they allowed vs GB was their season high.
So, obviously, GB offense is doing well right now, but I would also like to mention that their defense gained some confidence in those 3 games. They allowed just over 14 pts pg in those three games, compared to 39 ppg in their previous three game.
Also, the 'strenght of schedule' in the NFL is not as important as it is in NCAA. In NFL, every single team can win, on any given Sunday. Teams gain confidence and momentum after they win a couple of games, no matter if they won those games against good, bad or average teams.
2nd point...
Minny covered at Indy, and I was one of just maybe 30% of bettors who backed Minny in that game. However, as my system suggests, teams comming of a road dog cover, in a high scoring game, have a tendency not to show up if they play another road game the following week. Why ? I don't know, but I believe in my systems and I usually win with them.
3rd point...
A dome team mostlystruggle in November/December/January road games. I don't think it is a coincidence that Minnesota Vikings have 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record in road games in November recently, and that Minnesota Gophers only won 7 of their last 43 road games in November. Green Bay is one of the taughest venues in football in November, December and January. They have a 9-2 record vs Minny in home games in Nov./Dec in last 15+ years. Once again, I don't think this is a coincidence.
Feel free to ask, comment, disagree. This is what this forum is all about.
I wish you the best of luck this week !
WS
P.S. Alaska is beautifull. However, I moved to St.Johns, Newfoundland 10 years ago.
Excellent points all - I have only a few comments, and I wish you luck!
"Detroit was a 3-1 team when they faced GB. Full of confidence, playing their best football in years, yet they got killed by GB in that game, allowing the season high 38 pts."
Detroit is now 4-4, did GB bang them up? They have since lost to Dallas and Washingon. Not terrible teams but their records are 3-5 so take it for what its worth.
"Dallas was a 2-3 team when they faced GB, and yet again, the 41 pts they allowed vs GB was their season high."
Dallas is now 3-5. They have since beat Detroit but got destroyed by cinncinati. Does that say more about GB or does it tell you more about Dallas and Detroit? A matter of opinion either way - but food for thought.
"So, obviously, GB offense is doing well right now, but I would also like to mention that their defense gained some confidence in those 3 games. They allowed just over 14 pts pg in those three games, compared to 39 ppg in their previous three game."
Good point the GB D has undoubtedly gained confidence. Especially since two of those three games were on the road. Detroit Dallas and washington remember are under .500 on average and the only team at .500 is Detroit - but good points, GB killed detroit - rightly so.
"Also, the 'strenght of schedule' in the NFL is not as important as it is in NCAA. In NFL, every single team can win, on any given Sunday. Teams gain confidence and momentum after they win a couple of games, no matter if they won those games against good, bad or average teams."
I completely agree with your comparison - its much more important in leagues with less parity. Its just one stat among many and even if you nail down every stat there are still many intangibles that are almost impossible to account for. Its a stat nonetheless. At the very least a placeholder.
"A dome team mostlystruggle in November/December/January road games. I don't think it is a coincidence that Minnesota Vikings have 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record in road games in November recently, and that Minnesota Gophers only won 7 of their last 43 road games in November. Green Bay is one of the taughest venues in football in November, December and January. They have a 9-2 record vs Minny in home games in Nov./Dec in last 15+ years. Once again, I don't think this is a coincidence."
Good points again. Although its difficult for me to swallow any relative comparisons from the gophers (who god knows what their schedule is like?? I dont - tell me about it if you do) and the NFL - I must acknowledge that the stats dont lie. Then again 20 road games is not what I would consider "recently" and without any context to field the stat with its impossible to draw any conclusions that arent at least 'potentially' coincidental. How do we know that the vikes didnt just suck overall during the time stretch for most of their last 20 road games in November (which is how many years? roughly 10, 15+?). I'm not saying that is the case (to be honest I dont have much insight into how good the vikes have been in comparison to other teams over that stretch) I'm just raising what I think is one of many valid concerns about using stats that old to support a selection.
Where in alaska are you from? I've only been once but I went all over. My favorite place was Nome.
"Detroit was a 3-1 team when they faced GB. Full of confidence, playing their best football in years, yet they got killed by GB in that game, allowing the season high 38 pts."
Detroit is now 4-4, did GB bang them up? They have since lost to Dallas and Washingon. Not terrible teams but their records are 3-5 so take it for what its worth.
"Dallas was a 2-3 team when they faced GB, and yet again, the 41 pts they allowed vs GB was their season high."
Dallas is now 3-5. They have since beat Detroit but got destroyed by cinncinati. Does that say more about GB or does it tell you more about Dallas and Detroit? A matter of opinion either way - but food for thought.
"So, obviously, GB offense is doing well right now, but I would also like to mention that their defense gained some confidence in those 3 games. They allowed just over 14 pts pg in those three games, compared to 39 ppg in their previous three game."
Good point the GB D has undoubtedly gained confidence. Especially since two of those three games were on the road. Detroit Dallas and washington remember are under .500 on average and the only team at .500 is Detroit - but good points, GB killed detroit - rightly so.
"Also, the 'strenght of schedule' in the NFL is not as important as it is in NCAA. In NFL, every single team can win, on any given Sunday. Teams gain confidence and momentum after they win a couple of games, no matter if they won those games against good, bad or average teams."
I completely agree with your comparison - its much more important in leagues with less parity. Its just one stat among many and even if you nail down every stat there are still many intangibles that are almost impossible to account for. Its a stat nonetheless. At the very least a placeholder.
"A dome team mostlystruggle in November/December/January road games. I don't think it is a coincidence that Minnesota Vikings have 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record in road games in November recently, and that Minnesota Gophers only won 7 of their last 43 road games in November. Green Bay is one of the taughest venues in football in November, December and January. They have a 9-2 record vs Minny in home games in Nov./Dec in last 15+ years. Once again, I don't think this is a coincidence."
Good points again. Although its difficult for me to swallow any relative comparisons from the gophers (who god knows what their schedule is like?? I dont - tell me about it if you do) and the NFL - I must acknowledge that the stats dont lie. Then again 20 road games is not what I would consider "recently" and without any context to field the stat with its impossible to draw any conclusions that arent at least 'potentially' coincidental. How do we know that the vikes didnt just suck overall during the time stretch for most of their last 20 road games in November (which is how many years? roughly 10, 15+?). I'm not saying that is the case (to be honest I dont have much insight into how good the vikes have been in comparison to other teams over that stretch) I'm just raising what I think is one of many valid concerns about using stats that old to support a selection.
Where in alaska are you from? I've only been once but I went all over. My favorite place was Nome.
JP,
I think Detroit is banged up, both physically and mentally, but GB can't take all the credit for that. Detroit is just not deep enough, and their injuries are costing them big time. That being said, I stil think they have a decent chance to win @ Florida aginst another banged up team this week.
As for the similarities between the Gophers and the Vikings, I just don't think it is a coincidence. First, that MIN record on the road in November includes their trips to Stl, Indy, No (dome teams), so their OUTDOORS record in November is even worst. As for the Gophers, their schedule during that 40+ road November games sample includes both good and bad teams. Just doesn't matter who they played, they always struggled in this spot. Is it the weather, the surface, or the combination of both, I don't know, but it is a fact that the dome teams struggle on the road late in the season.
Here is how some other dome NFL teams do @, late in the season.
ATL 16-30 SU, 22-23-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
DET 6-38 SU, 15-28-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
IND 19-28 SU, 21-26 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
NO 16-27 SU, 22-21 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
STL 19-26 SU, 17-28 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
---------------------------------------------------
MIN 8-27 SU, 10-24-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan, since 1988.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Vikings were a very bad road team in Nov, Dec, Jan, consistently, in last 13 yrs, despite having 10 winning, 2 losing and 1 .500 season during that period of time. Some things just never change.
It feels great exchanging info with people like you JP.
Who do you like the most this week ?
P.S. I'm from Anchorage. Nome is apsolutely beautifull. Glad you liked it.
Good luck this week.
WS
I think Detroit is banged up, both physically and mentally, but GB can't take all the credit for that. Detroit is just not deep enough, and their injuries are costing them big time. That being said, I stil think they have a decent chance to win @ Florida aginst another banged up team this week.
As for the similarities between the Gophers and the Vikings, I just don't think it is a coincidence. First, that MIN record on the road in November includes their trips to Stl, Indy, No (dome teams), so their OUTDOORS record in November is even worst. As for the Gophers, their schedule during that 40+ road November games sample includes both good and bad teams. Just doesn't matter who they played, they always struggled in this spot. Is it the weather, the surface, or the combination of both, I don't know, but it is a fact that the dome teams struggle on the road late in the season.
Here is how some other dome NFL teams do @, late in the season.
ATL 16-30 SU, 22-23-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
DET 6-38 SU, 15-28-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
IND 19-28 SU, 21-26 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
NO 16-27 SU, 22-21 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
STL 19-26 SU, 17-28 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan.
---------------------------------------------------
MIN 8-27 SU, 10-24-1 ATS Nov, Dec, Jan, since 1988.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Vikings were a very bad road team in Nov, Dec, Jan, consistently, in last 13 yrs, despite having 10 winning, 2 losing and 1 .500 season during that period of time. Some things just never change.
It feels great exchanging info with people like you JP.
Who do you like the most this week ?
P.S. I'm from Anchorage. Nome is apsolutely beautifull. Glad you liked it.
Good luck this week.
WS
"Just doesn't matter who they played, they always struggled in this spot"
The reason I raised the question about this was because I know for a fact that some teams have tougher records than other (for one reason or another) and in college it is impossible to know without knowing who they played. What was the relative strength of their opponents - I'm sure you would agree that knowing this is completely relevant. I dont have any idea who they played but assuming it was Big 10 heavy its hard not to argue that the conference overall has been strong over the last 20 years , and in contrast its hard to argue that the relative success of teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan St, and Michigan are tied to the advantage they have in playing most of their games outdoors.
Overall its hard to dispute the facts you provide - and you make the case well for factoring in historical stats. I find it hard normally to understand how teams performace in any given year is influenced in any way by the performaces of different teams from past years, with different chemistry, talent, leadership, and schedules. However it is certainly interesting to note that from the data you provided, the teams with the worst records are the teams farther to the North (Detroit, Minny) and those two teams in particular have a significantly lower record in this category than do the other dome teams listed.
I liked fairbanks as well but I got the feeling in Nome like I was close to something neat (or close to nothing). Something different - the kind of feeling you might expect to have when being on the moon looking back at earth knowing that you are so far away from the rest of civilization, yet the picture of it lies fresh in the mind.
Also went to Gambel Island and got a look at mountains in Siberia. that was neat but the indians were awefully annoying...
The reason I raised the question about this was because I know for a fact that some teams have tougher records than other (for one reason or another) and in college it is impossible to know without knowing who they played. What was the relative strength of their opponents - I'm sure you would agree that knowing this is completely relevant. I dont have any idea who they played but assuming it was Big 10 heavy its hard not to argue that the conference overall has been strong over the last 20 years , and in contrast its hard to argue that the relative success of teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan St, and Michigan are tied to the advantage they have in playing most of their games outdoors.
Overall its hard to dispute the facts you provide - and you make the case well for factoring in historical stats. I find it hard normally to understand how teams performace in any given year is influenced in any way by the performaces of different teams from past years, with different chemistry, talent, leadership, and schedules. However it is certainly interesting to note that from the data you provided, the teams with the worst records are the teams farther to the North (Detroit, Minny) and those two teams in particular have a significantly lower record in this category than do the other dome teams listed.
I liked fairbanks as well but I got the feeling in Nome like I was close to something neat (or close to nothing). Something different - the kind of feeling you might expect to have when being on the moon looking back at earth knowing that you are so far away from the rest of civilization, yet the picture of it lies fresh in the mind.
Also went to Gambel Island and got a look at mountains in Siberia. that was neat but the indians were awefully annoying...
