*** North Carolina State Wolfpack -5
When looking at this game, the first thing I did was throw the meeting last year completely out the window. State lost 34-0, but as everyone by now already knows, the team that finished the season bears little resemblance to the team that started it. South Carolina has had a good deal of attrition as well so I think it would be a mistake to get caught up in the past here.
To me the thing that pops out at me in this game is that it appears to be strength on strength (NCS offense vs USoC defense). So IMO the winner of this game will be whatever side controls this matchup. Right out of the gate two major contributors on the D-line, DT Abijoye and DE Geathers are out for this game. This could be huge because the Gamecocks need to generate pressure from the line in order for LB Norwood to get in the backfield and do what he does, which is wreck havoc on opposing offenses. USoC will need to show they can get pressure early from everywhere or State will key on Norwood and neutralize what he is able to do, creating plenty of time for Russell/Glennon (both quarterbacks will see action in this game).
Replacing 3 starters who went to the NFL draft in a secondary is difficult, and South Carolina is going to be very young, albeit talented, back there. They are going against an experienced group of receivers, including gamebreaker Spencer, who led the country in ypc @ 22.6. Throw in a QB who showed his decision making ability and patience as a freshman (17 TD’s to 1 Pick) and it could be a long day downfield if the new guys aren’t in position every play.
For USoC on offense, they will need a lot more from QB Garcia, and they need a playmaker to emerge. They turned the ball over 38 times last season (tied for WSU for most in FBS) and will have to control the ball to stay in this game. State has a stout front 7 (even without LB Irving) and a ground game that was already a big weakness for the Cocks last season (112th nationally) may really have a tough time going. The Wolfpack secondary can be exploited but until Garcia can show more consistency and a playmaker at WR emerges, its tough to expect the passing game to beat State. This becomes even more true if the running game struggles early and State is able to drop the linebackers into more of a coverage role.
I think State gets the better of the coaching match-up as USoC have been ok but Spurrier seems largely uninspired since the return to college ball. Maybe it was the failure in the NFL, or maybe the game has passed him by. I think State has the better QB, better team, better coach and home field advantage. Asking them to cover less than a TD in a revenge situation is something that I am willing to do. I would take the Pack all the way to -7 here and I would not be surprised at a DD victory.