NBA Finals Game 3 Sharp Action
9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
This is Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 1-1. The Celtics stole the opener 120-108, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Then the Warriors bounced back with a 107-88 win in Game 2, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Boston.
This line opened with Boston listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. According to BetMGM, the Celtics are receiving 51% of bets but 55% of money, which equates to a 4% smart money discrepancy in their favor. The line hasn't budged off 3.5. The next move be will be telling. If we see the line creep up to -4 on game day that will indicate further support for Boston. If it falls to 3, that will signal some respected Warriors money plus the points.
Regardless of the next move, the Celtics match several betting systems. Boston is 24-13 ATS (65%) off a loss this season and hasn't lost consecutive games since January. Favorites are 51-38 ATS (57%) this postseason, including 61-28 (69%) straight up. The Celtics are -155 on the moneyline.
We could be looking at another lower scoring game in this one. The total opened at 213 and has fallen to 212.5, signaling some sharp under support. Unders are 55-34 (62%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 33-15 (69%). When the total is 210 or more, the under is 47-24 (66%).
Tied 1-1, the Warriors are a slight -115 favorite to win the series. The Celtics are a -105 dog.
Steph Curry is the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP at 100. Jayson Tatum has the second-best odds at 135, followed by Jaylen Brown 750.
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