Michael Alexander:
NBA, 04/13 7:05 PM Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -200 for 2 Units
This is simply a home play -- remember, the Hawks got scorching-hot at home down the stretch last year, too, and it carried them to the East Finals. Atlanta has won 19 of its last 22 at home, the wins being the most in the NBA over that time (since Jan. 17). In that stretch, the Hawks are averaging 121.4 ppg at State Farm Arena and we know the Hornets can't play defense. I also trust Trae Young to raise his game as he did in the 2021 postseason. This might be the highest-scoring game of the entire playoffs (even though the play-in tournament isn't considered the "playoffs") but I stopped betting NBA totals months ago.
MLB, 04/13 12:35 PM Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 for 2 Units
Getting Pittsburgh on the runline is only 20 cents more than backing the Cubs on the moneyline (-129). Chicago's best pitcher is Kyle Hendricks and he was great in his season debut at Wrigley, but Hendricks has traditionally struggled on the road and the Pirates hammered him last year to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in five starts. Zach Thompson makes his Pittsburgh debut and he had a 3.24 ERA last year with Miami. He posted a 1.57 ERA in six appearances during the afternoon. The Bucs' Bryan Reynolds has gone 15-for-28 (.536) in his last nine game played at PNC Park.
MLB, 04/13 7:05 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles 157 for 2 Units
John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher. We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year. The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here.