Dave Cokin
Wednesday Bonus Play 8:15 PM MLB
(925) BOSTON RED SOX at (926) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Take: (925) BOSTON RED SOX +120
The Red Sox are in play out the string mode for the rest of this season. That’s a tough deal for a team that is the reigning World Series champ. But unlike last season, when almost everything broke just right for the Red Sox, it’s been a Murphy’s Law type of campaign this time around.
I don’t see much chance that Boston will forge a winning record over the final two months of the season. They just aren’t a good baseball team right now, and it’s very clear that the internal process right now is focused on getting the team back to contender status in 2015.
Consequently, this is a Red Sox team where there will have to be something compelling to make them bet worthy. I think we have such a scenario tonight as they duel the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. It’s kind of a hello and goodbye at the same time for Joe Kelly. Kelly was moved to Boston in the John Lackey deal last week. Now he goes back home for one more start, only this time as a member of the visiting squad.
I have to think Kelly will want this win about as badly as he’s ever wanted one. Players generally don’t like getting traded, and I can’t imagine Kelly was thrilled to have to trade in the uniform of the only organization he’s played for. So this is a payback spot for Kelly, as you know he’s going to want to send a message to his former squad. It sure doesn’t that Kelly has pitched well for the most part in this ballpark.
Shelby Miller will throw for the Redbirds, and it’s anyone’s guess as to which Miller appears on the mound tonight. The charts would favor the not so good Miller, as overall this has been a very difficult season for the righty. But Miller has also had some games where he’s been able to locate his stuff, and when his command is good, so are his results.
Neither of these teams is doing much with the sticks, so chances are this is going to come down to the arms. That’s actually a good thing for the Red Sox, as they appear almost incapable of winning any shootouts right now. I made this number Cardinals -120, but that’s strictly off the data. Add in what I feel is a favorable situation for Kelly, and I’ll make a case there’s enough value here to justify backing the Red Sox for one night.